探索股票在晚上的表现是否比正常交易时间更好

市场研究人员正在探索库存在晚上的表现是否比正常交易时间更好。 “隔夜效应”异常是一个新兴的概念

A new report by the advisory firm Elm Street has revealed that investing in US equities at night, specifically during the after-hours sessions, could yield more profit compared with investing during normal trading hours over the past several decades.

咨询公司Elm Street的一份新报告透露，与过去几十年中的正常交易时间内的投资相比，晚上，特别是在晚上的夜间投资美国股票的投资可能会产生更多的利润。

The firm’s analysis, which focused on the S&P 500 index (SPX) and took into account the time frame of 1993 to 2022, found that investors who bought into the index at the 4:00 p.m. ET market close every session and sold their holdings at 9:30 a.m. ET the next trading day over the past 30 years would have earned 100% or higher of the market’s buy-and-hold return.

该公司的分析集中在标准普尔500指数（SPX）上，并考虑到1993年至2022年的时间范围，发现在ET市场上下午4:00 PM Market收购该指数的投资者在每次会议上都关闭了该指数，并在过去30年的下一个交易日在下一个交易日上出售了他们的持股，在过去的30年中，他们将获得100％或更高的市场收益。

This is in comparison with zero or negative returns for those who invested when markets were open. Keep in mind that these estimates don't consider transaction costs.

对于那些在市场开放时投资的人来说，这与零或负回报相比。请记住，这些估计不考虑交易成本。

The report highlighted an anomaly known as the ‘overnight effect,’ which occurs as most companies report their earnings after the market closes, and the market usually reacts positively to positive earnings surprises.

该报告强调了一种称为“隔夜效应”的异常现象，它发生在大多数公司在市场结束后报告其收益时发生的，市场通常会对积极的收入惊喜做出积极反应。

The firm’s researchers stated that this would have a minimal impact on the S&P 500 as the stocks' weightings in the benchmark index are relatively small, especially over the long term.

该公司的研究人员表示，这将对标准普尔500指数产生最小的影响，因为基准指数中的股票权重相对较小，尤其是从长远来看。

The researchers explained that while the ominoous macroeconomic backdrop has increased the volatility of financial markets, which could be a disadvantage for short-term traders, it could also present new opportunities for those who know where to look.

研究人员解释说，尽管不撒宏观经济的背景增加了金融市场的波动，这可能是短期交易者的劣势，但它也可能为那些知道在哪里看的人带来新的机会。

"The market is pricing in good news, and it can't handle a lot of it," said the researchers, adding that this scenario ultimately leads to "a small net negative impact on the S&P 500 over the 30-year period from 1993 to 2022 for those who invest during the day."

研究人员说：“市场的定价是个好消息，它无法处理很多市场。”他补充说，这种情况最终导致“从1993年到2022年，对于当天投资的人，对标准普尔500标准普尔500标准普尔500指数产生了很小的净负面影响。”

The firm highlighted that this strategy would also require a high volume of trades, which would incur transactional charges. However, their estimates suggest that the overheads would cost the overnight portfolio roughly one percentage point.

该公司强调，该策略还需要大量交易，这将产生交易费用。但是，他们的估计表明，开销将使隔夜投资组合的损失约为一个百分点。

It is also important to note that short-term trades will subject your gains to the higher short-term capital gains tax rate. So, you can avoid these implications by using the overnight effect strategy in a tax-deferred account.

同样重要的是要注意，短期交易将使您的收益达到较高的短期资本利得税率。因此，您可以通过在税收递延帐户中使用过夜效应策略来避免这些含义。

Finally, the researchers advise against investors solely attempting to profit from market patterns, especially during a volatile macro backdrop. Rather, they should focus on "the true fundamentals of investing in order to maximize their returns over the long term."

最后，研究人员建议不要试图从市场模式中获利的投资者，尤其是在动荡的宏观背景下。相反，他们应该专注于“从长远来看，为了最大程度地提高其回报的真正基础。”