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流行的模因“比特币比特币解决了这个问题”表明比特币解决了一系列全球和国内问题——经济、社会和政府问题。
The popular meme “Bitcoin Bitcoin fixes this” suggests that Bitcoin solves a broad range of global and domestic issues—economic, social and governmental. This idea stems from the theory of sound money, which posits that sound money provides significant benefits over fiat systems. As Bitcoin is the most sound money, with a fixed supply and no distortion from industrial uses, it will maximize the benefits of sound money.
流行的模因“比特币比特币解决了这个问题”表明比特币解决了广泛的全球和国内问题——经济、社会和政府问题。这个想法源于健全货币理论,该理论认为健全货币比法定系统提供了显着的好处。由于比特币是最健全的货币,具有固定的供应量并且不会因工业用途而扭曲,因此它将最大限度地发挥健全货币的好处。
But is it correct? The benefits of sound money will come in time with Bitcoin adoption, but it’s not these benefits that will drive broad adoption. The meme’s utopian vision of immediate benefits overlooks a crucial reality: Bitcoin will not prevent the coming economic decline; rather, its adoption is a response to it. Indeed, this economic slowdown is the driving force behind the monetary evolution toward Bitcoin.
但这是正确的吗?健全货币的好处将随着比特币的采用而出现,但推动广泛采用的并不是这些好处。该模因的乌托邦式的眼前利益的愿景忽视了一个关键的现实:比特币不会阻止即将到来的经济衰退;相反,它的采用是对它的回应。事实上,经济放缓是货币向比特币演变的推动力。
What, then, is causing this evolution? A correct theory of monetary evolution must not only explain the transition from the current system to a bitcoin model but also account for the earlier shift from the gold standard to the credit-based system. Therefore, the negative effects of inflation cannot explain this shift—why would gold have been rejected during 50 years of rapidly inflating credit markets? That earlier transition occurred because low global debt levels and underdevelopment provided fertile ground for credit expansion and growth. Today, however, we are at the end of that story.
那么,是什么导致了这种演变呢?正确的货币演化理论不仅必须解释从当前体系到比特币模型的转变,还必须解释早期从金本位到信用体系的转变。因此,通货膨胀的负面影响无法解释这种转变——为什么黄金会在50年信贷市场快速膨胀的过程中被拒绝?之所以发生这种较早的转变,是因为全球债务水平较低和发展不足为信贷扩张和增长提供了肥沃的土壤。然而今天,这个故事已经结束了。
The global debt bubble has grown to $315 trillion, or over 300% of global GDP, as reported in the IIF Q1 2024 Global Debt Monitor. This massive debt burden creates a deflationary environment and looming credit crisis, which are the primary drivers of monetary evolution today.
根据 IIF 2024 年第一季度全球债务监测报告,全球债务泡沫已增长至 315 万亿美元,占全球 GDP 的 300% 以上。这种巨大的债务负担造成了通货紧缩环境和迫在眉睫的信贷危机,这是当今货币演变的主要驱动力。
We’re witnessing the breakup of the modern, status quo global economy, driven by deglobalization, diminishing global trust, rising national self-interest, tariffs and demographic collapse. People are questioning U.S. leadership and the effectiveness of global institutions. This is evident in the rise of alternatives to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT), the growth of BRICS and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), strained NATO relations, the growing alliances between Russia and China and the “revitalization” worries in the U.N. General Assembly.
我们正在目睹现代、现状的全球经济在去全球化、全球信任下降、国家自身利益上升、关税和人口崩溃的推动下崩溃。人们正在质疑美国的领导力和全球机构的有效性。这在国际货币基金组织 (IMF) 和环球银行金融电讯协会 (SWIFT) 之外的替代方案的崛起、金砖国家和东南亚国家联盟 (ASEAN) 的发展、北约关系紧张、各国之间的联盟不断增强等方面都表现得很明显。俄罗斯和中国以及联合国大会上的“振兴”担忧。
These trends signal a shift away from a unified global financial system toward a multipolar world of regional, fragmented systems with high tariffs. If money is debt and these conditions reduce global credit capacity, we are heading toward deflation, not inflation. The old system will try to solve this by adding more debt, but the debt burden will outpace growth. As a result, nations will not want to hold debt of rival nations as reserves and move to neutral, sound money assets—Bitcoin will be adopted as an effect of these global conditions.
这些趋势标志着从统一的全球金融体系转向由区域性、分散性体系和高关税组成的多极世界。如果货币就是债务,而这些情况降低了全球信贷能力,那么我们将走向通货紧缩,而不是通货膨胀。旧体系将试图通过增加债务来解决这个问题,但债务负担将超过增长。因此,各国将不想持有竞争对手国家的债务作为储备,而转向中性、稳健的货币资产——比特币将因这些全球条件而被采用。
Global financial conditions are such that monetary evolution is going to choose a safe haven asset. ... [+] If it weren't for Bitcoin, the market would likely settle on gold.
全球金融状况使得货币演变将选择避险资产。 ... [+] 如果没有比特币,市场可能会选择黄金。
If Bitcoin did not exist, monetary evolution would still favor the most sound money available, which would be gold. Gold is also ahead in the process because it is held by central banks and governments. Though behind gold at this point, Bitcoin has greater upside potential being more sound money. Bitcoin’s edge over gold lies in its unparalleled scarcity and technological attributes—a mix between a tech stock and gold that cannot be debased and can settle globally in minutes.
如果比特币不存在,货币演化仍然有利于最健全的货币,那就是黄金。黄金在这一过程中也处于领先地位,因为它由央行和政府持有。尽管目前比特币落后于黄金,但作为更健全的货币,比特币具有更大的上涨潜力。比特币相对于黄金的优势在于其无与伦比的稀缺性和技术属性——科技股和黄金的混合体,不会贬值,并且可以在几分钟内在全球范围内结算。
The idea of diminishing marginal returns on debt is central to understanding Bitcoin’s future role. This is the economic principle that as more debt is accumulated, each additional unit of debt becomes less effective at generating productive growth. Eventually, it reaches a point where new debt can barely sustain previous obligations. This is where we find ourselves today.
债务边际回报递减的想法对于理解比特币的未来角色至关重要。这是一个经济原理,即随着债务的积累,每增加一单位债务,产生生产性增长的效率就会降低。最终,新债务几乎无法维持之前的债务。这就是我们今天的处境。
The mainstream belief is that governments and central banks will print their way out of this crisis, but that would require a fundamental shift in how the monetary system functions, moving from debt-based money creation to direct currency printing—a highly inflationary and politically unpopular strategy. Rather, the game theory predicts extending the current overindebted credit model by adding more unproductive debt while stacking bitcoin.
主流观点认为,政府和央行将通过印钞摆脱这场危机,但这需要货币体系的运作方式发生根本性转变,从基于债务的货币创造转向直接印钞——这是一种高度通胀且在政治上不受欢迎的方式。战略。相反,博弈论预测通过在堆积比特币的同时增加更多非生产性债务来扩展当前的过度负债信贷模型。
Bitcoin’s role in this scenario becomes crucial. As credit markets deteriorate, Bitcoin transforms from a speculative asset into a defensive, strategic holding. In credit crises, there is typically a shortage of safe and liquid assets, such as U.S. Treasuries and dollars. Historically, gold has fulfilled this role as well, and now Bitcoin joins the same ranks.
比特币在这种情况下的作用变得至关重要。随着信贷市场恶化,比特币从投机性资产转变为防御性战略资产。在信贷危机中,通常会缺乏安全和流动性资产,例如美国国债和美元。从历史上看,黄金也扮演过这一角色,现在比特币也加入了同样的行列。
Demographic decline and its economic consequences
人口下降及其经济后果
Compounding the breakdown in credit markets, we face a demographic decline. Most discussions about the fertility crisis focus on labor shortages, often suggesting that AI or automation will increase productivity enough to counter the effects of a shrinking labor force. However, these arguments miss the critical issue of consumption.
除了信贷市场的崩溃之外,我们还面临着人口下降的问题。大多数关于生育危机的讨论都集中在劳动力短缺上,通常表明人工智能或自动化将提高生产力,足以应对劳动力萎缩的影响。然而,这些论点忽略了消费的关键问题。
Declining populations mean fewer mouths to feed, fewer loans, fewer inventors and entrepreneurs, less demand for goods and weaker overall consumption.
人口减少意味着需要养活的人口减少、贷款减少、发明家和企业家减少、商品需求减少以及整体消费疲软。
Japan provides a useful example. In a recent analysis of global
日本提供了一个有用的例子。在最近的全球分析中
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