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流行的迷因「比特幣比特幣解決了這個問題」表明比特幣解決了一系列全球和國內問題——經濟、社會和政府問題。
The popular meme “Bitcoin Bitcoin fixes this” suggests that Bitcoin solves a broad range of global and domestic issues—economic, social and governmental. This idea stems from the theory of sound money, which posits that sound money provides significant benefits over fiat systems. As Bitcoin is the most sound money, with a fixed supply and no distortion from industrial uses, it will maximize the benefits of sound money.
流行的迷因「比特幣比特幣解決了這個問題」表明比特幣解決了廣泛的全球和國內問題——經濟、社會和政府問題。這個想法源自於健全貨幣理論,該理論認為健全貨幣比法定係統提供了顯著的好處。由於比特幣是最健全的貨幣,具有固定的供應並且不會因工業用途而扭曲,因此它將最大限度地發揮健全貨幣的好處。
But is it correct? The benefits of sound money will come in time with Bitcoin adoption, but it’s not these benefits that will drive broad adoption. The meme’s utopian vision of immediate benefits overlooks a crucial reality: Bitcoin will not prevent the coming economic decline; rather, its adoption is a response to it. Indeed, this economic slowdown is the driving force behind the monetary evolution toward Bitcoin.
但這是正確的嗎?健全貨幣的好處將隨著比特幣的採用而出現,但推動廣泛採用的並不是這些好處。這個迷因的烏托邦式的眼前利益的願景忽略了一個關鍵的現實:比特幣不會阻止即將到來的經濟衰退;相反,它的採用是對它的回應。事實上,經濟放緩是貨幣向比特幣演變的動力。
What, then, is causing this evolution? A correct theory of monetary evolution must not only explain the transition from the current system to a bitcoin model but also account for the earlier shift from the gold standard to the credit-based system. Therefore, the negative effects of inflation cannot explain this shift—why would gold have been rejected during 50 years of rapidly inflating credit markets? That earlier transition occurred because low global debt levels and underdevelopment provided fertile ground for credit expansion and growth. Today, however, we are at the end of that story.
那麼,是什麼導致了這種演變呢?正確的貨幣演化理論不僅必須解釋從當前體係到比特幣模型的轉變,還必須解釋早期從金本位到信用體系的轉變。因此,通貨膨脹的負面影響無法解釋這種轉變──為什麼黃金會在50年信貸市場快速膨脹的過程中被拒絕?之所以發生這種較早的轉變,是因為全球債務水平較低和發展不足為信貸擴張和增長提供了肥沃的土壤。然而今天,這個故事已經結束了。
The global debt bubble has grown to $315 trillion, or over 300% of global GDP, as reported in the IIF Q1 2024 Global Debt Monitor. This massive debt burden creates a deflationary environment and looming credit crisis, which are the primary drivers of monetary evolution today.
根據 IIF 2024 年第一季全球債務監測報告,全球債務泡沫已成長至 315 兆美元,佔全球 GDP 的 300% 以上。這種巨大的債務負擔造成了通貨緊縮環境和迫在眉睫的信貸危機,這是當今貨幣演變的主要驅動力。
We’re witnessing the breakup of the modern, status quo global economy, driven by deglobalization, diminishing global trust, rising national self-interest, tariffs and demographic collapse. People are questioning U.S. leadership and the effectiveness of global institutions. This is evident in the rise of alternatives to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT), the growth of BRICS and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), strained NATO relations, the growing alliances between Russia and China and the “revitalization” worries in the U.N. General Assembly.
我們正在目睹現代、現狀的全球經濟在去全球化、全球信任下降、國家自身利益上升、關稅和人口崩潰的推動下崩潰。人們正在質疑美國的領導力和全球機構的有效性。這在國際貨幣基金組織(IMF) 和環球銀行金融電訊協會(SWIFT) 之外的替代方案的崛起、金磚國家和東南亞國家聯盟(ASEAN) 的發展、北約關係緊張、各國之間的聯盟不斷增強等方面都表現得很明顯。
These trends signal a shift away from a unified global financial system toward a multipolar world of regional, fragmented systems with high tariffs. If money is debt and these conditions reduce global credit capacity, we are heading toward deflation, not inflation. The old system will try to solve this by adding more debt, but the debt burden will outpace growth. As a result, nations will not want to hold debt of rival nations as reserves and move to neutral, sound money assets—Bitcoin will be adopted as an effect of these global conditions.
這些趨勢標誌著從統一的全球金融體系轉向由區域性、分散性體系和高關稅組成的多極世界。如果貨幣就是債務,而這些情況降低了全球信貸能力,那麼我們將走向通貨緊縮,而不是通貨膨脹。舊體系將試圖透過增加債務來解決這個問題,但債務負擔將超過成長。因此,各國將不想持有競爭對手國家的債務作為儲備,而轉向中性、穩健的貨幣資產——比特幣將因這些全球條件而被採用。
Global financial conditions are such that monetary evolution is going to choose a safe haven asset. ... [+] If it weren't for Bitcoin, the market would likely settle on gold.
全球金融狀況使得貨幣演進將選擇避險資產。 ... [+] 如果沒有比特幣,市場可能會選擇黃金。
If Bitcoin did not exist, monetary evolution would still favor the most sound money available, which would be gold. Gold is also ahead in the process because it is held by central banks and governments. Though behind gold at this point, Bitcoin has greater upside potential being more sound money. Bitcoin’s edge over gold lies in its unparalleled scarcity and technological attributes—a mix between a tech stock and gold that cannot be debased and can settle globally in minutes.
如果比特幣不存在,貨幣演化仍然有利於最健全的貨幣,那就是黃金。黃金在這一過程中也處於領先地位,因為它由央行和政府持有。儘管目前比特幣落後於黃金,但作為更健全的貨幣,比特幣具有更大的上漲潛力。比特幣相對於黃金的優勢在於其無與倫比的稀缺性和技術屬性——科技股和黃金的混合體,不會貶值,並且可以在幾分鐘內在全球範圍內結算。
The idea of diminishing marginal returns on debt is central to understanding Bitcoin’s future role. This is the economic principle that as more debt is accumulated, each additional unit of debt becomes less effective at generating productive growth. Eventually, it reaches a point where new debt can barely sustain previous obligations. This is where we find ourselves today.
債務邊際報酬遞減的想法對於理解比特幣的未來角色至關重要。這是一個經濟原理,隨著債務的積累,每增加一單位債務,產生生產性成長的效率就會降低。最終,新債務幾乎無法維持先前的債務。這就是我們今天的處境。
The mainstream belief is that governments and central banks will print their way out of this crisis, but that would require a fundamental shift in how the monetary system functions, moving from debt-based money creation to direct currency printing—a highly inflationary and politically unpopular strategy. Rather, the game theory predicts extending the current overindebted credit model by adding more unproductive debt while stacking bitcoin.
主流觀點認為,政府和央行將透過印鈔擺脫這場危機,但這需要貨幣體系的運作方式發生根本性轉變,從基於債務的貨幣創造轉向直接印鈔——這是一種高度通膨且在政治上不受歡迎的方式。相反,博弈論預測透過在堆積比特幣的同時增加更多非生產性債務來擴展當前的過度負債信貸模型。
Bitcoin’s role in this scenario becomes crucial. As credit markets deteriorate, Bitcoin transforms from a speculative asset into a defensive, strategic holding. In credit crises, there is typically a shortage of safe and liquid assets, such as U.S. Treasuries and dollars. Historically, gold has fulfilled this role as well, and now Bitcoin joins the same ranks.
比特幣在這種情況下的作用變得至關重要。隨著信貸市場惡化,比特幣從投機性資產轉變為防禦性戰略資產。在信貸危機中,通常會缺乏安全和流動性資產,例如美國國債和美元。從歷史上看,黃金也扮演過這個角色,現在比特幣也加入了同樣的行列。
Demographic decline and its economic consequences
人口下降及其經濟後果
Compounding the breakdown in credit markets, we face a demographic decline. Most discussions about the fertility crisis focus on labor shortages, often suggesting that AI or automation will increase productivity enough to counter the effects of a shrinking labor force. However, these arguments miss the critical issue of consumption.
除了信貸市場的崩盤之外,我們還面臨人口下降的問題。大多數關於生育危機的討論都集中在勞動力短缺上,通常表明人工智慧或自動化將提高生產力,足以應對勞動力萎縮的影響。然而,這些論點忽略了消費的關鍵問題。
Declining populations mean fewer mouths to feed, fewer loans, fewer inventors and entrepreneurs, less demand for goods and weaker overall consumption.
人口減少意味著需要養活的人口減少、貸款減少、發明家和企業家減少、商品需求減少以及整體消費疲軟。
Japan provides a useful example. In a recent analysis of global
日本提供了一個有用的例子。在最近的全球分析中
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