以太坊不断发展的景观 - 导航L2竞争和经济模型挑战

智能合同技术的先驱以太坊（ETH）正面临着一个重大过渡和不确定性时期。

The banking giant Standard Chartered has revised its 2025 Ethereum price forecast from $10,000 to $4,000, reflecting the growing impact of Layer-2 (L2) solutions on Ethereum's market share and economic activity. The original upbeat prediction, which was unveiled in March, has now been slashed by 60%.

银行巨头标准宪章已将其2025年以太坊价格预测从10,000美元提高到4,000美元，这反映了第2层（L2）解决方案对以太坊市场份额和经济活动的日益增长的影响。最初的乐观预测于3月揭幕，现在已被削减60％。

The shift in price target comes as L2 solutions, such as Optimism and Arbitrum, continue to gain traction, offering lower transaction fees and faster transaction speeds than the main Ethereum network. This rise has led to the "commoditization" of Ethereum, with fee revenues being reallocated to third parties and the digital asset market becoming disaggregated.

价格目标的变化是因为L2解决方案（例如乐观和仲裁）继续获得吸引力，比主要以太坊网络提供较低的交易费用和更快的交易速度。这种上升导致了以太坊的“商品化”，收费收入将重新分配给第三方，数字资产市场也被分解。

"The promise of lower transaction fees and faster transaction speeds has led to a rapid migration of users and developers to L2 solutions, diverting a sizable portion of the economic activity away from the main chain," said economists at Standard Chartered in a note on Thursday. "This shift in activity has had a knock-on effect on Ethereum's revenue model, which is primarily based on transaction fees."

“降低交易费用和更快交易速度的承诺导致用户和开发人员迅速迁移到L2解决方案，从而将大部分经济活动从主连锁店转移了出来，”《标准经济学家》在周四的一份票据中说。 “活动的这种转变对以太坊的收入模型产生了敲门影响，该模型主要基于交易费用。”

As L2 solutions continue to siphon off users and developers, the total transaction fees generated by the Ethereum network are expected to decrease even further, posing a challenge to the sustainability of its current economic structure.

随着L2解决方案继续消除用户和开发商，以太坊网络产生的总交易费将进一步下降，这对其当前经济结构的可持续性构成了挑战。

"While Ethereum is still the leading smart contract platform, its dominance is being threatened by the emergence of L2 solutions and the rapid innovation in the blockchain space," the economists added. "The potential for a new, more efficient and scalable blockchain protocol to emerge and displace Ethereum cannot be ruled out."

经济学家补充说：“尽管以太坊仍然是领先的智能合同平台，但它的主导地位受到L2解决方案的出现和区块链领域的快速创新的威胁。” “无法排除新的，更高效和可扩展的区块链规程出现和置换以太坊的潜力。”

The downgrade of Ethereum's price target also reflects the broader bearishness in the cryptocurrency market, which has seen prices decline sharply in recent months. With L2 solutions continuing to attract users and developers, and the cryptocurrency market remaining in a bear market, it is likely that we will see further reductions in Ethereum's price target as the year progresses.

以太坊的价格目标的降级也反映了加密货币市场的更广泛的看跌，最近几个月的价格急剧下降。随着L2解决方案继续吸引用户和开发商，并且加密货币市场仍在熊市中，随着年份的发展，我们很可能会看到以太坊的价格目标进一步降低。

However, despite the gloomy outlook, Standard Chartered remains optimistic about the long-term potential of blockchain technology and digital assets. The bank is actively involved in exploring and investing in new blockchain solutions, and it is committed to supporting the development of a sound and sustainable digital asset ecosystem.

然而，尽管前景令人沮丧，但标准特许仍然对区块链技术和数字资产的长期潜力保持乐观。该银行积极参与探索和投资新的区块链解决方案，并致力于支持声音和可持续的数字资产生态系统的开发。

"We believe that blockchain technology has the potential to revolutionize the financial industry and create new opportunities for both businesses and consumers," said the economists. "We are actively involved in researching and testing new blockchain solutions, such as central bank digital currencies and stablecoin solutions."

经济学家说：“我们认为，区块链技术有可能彻底改变金融业并为企业和消费者创造新的机会。” “我们积极参与研究和测试新的区块链解决方案，例如中央银行数字货币和Stablecoin解决方案。”

Overall, the Standard Chartered economists are keeping a close eye on the evolving landscape of the cryptocurrency market and adjusting their price predictions accordingly. With L2 solutions continuing to disrupt the market and the broader macroeconomic environment remaining uncertain, it will be interesting to see how their analysis and price forecasts develop further.

总体而言，标准的特许经济学家正在密切关注加密货币市场的不断发展的景观，并相应地调整其价格预测。随着L2解决方案继续破坏市场，更广泛的宏观经济环境仍然不确定，有趣的是，看到他们的分析和价格预测如何进一步发展。

Several useful macroeconomic indicators will be released next week, which may have an impact on market trends. Among them are:

下周将发布一些有用的宏观经济指标，这可能会影响市场趋势。其中包括：

* Monday: The Empire State Manufacturing Index for July is expected to decline to 0.75 from the prior reading of 1.1.

*星期一：从先前阅读1.1的帝国州制造指数预计将下降到0.75。

* Tuesday: The Labor Department is set to report a 0.2% increase in the Consumer Price Index for July, following a 0.3% rise in June. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to rise by 0.1%, in line with the previous month's reading.

*星期二：在6月上涨0.3％之后，劳工部将报告7月份的消费者价格指数上涨0.2％。不包括波动性食品和能源价格的核心CPI预计将上升0.1％，这与上个月的阅读相符。

* Wednesday: The Federal Reserve is anticipated to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its July meeting, which will be announced on Wednesday, August 2. Economists polled by Dow Jones and the Monetary Policy members both predict a 25 basis point increase in the federal funds rate to 5.25%-5.5%.

*星期三：预计美联储将在7月的会议上将利率提高一个百分点，这将于8月2日（星期三）宣布。陶氏（Dow Jones）对经济学家进行了调查，货币政策成员都预测，联邦资金利率将增加25个基点，达到5.25％-5.5％。

* Thursday: The Department of Labor is set to release its report on jobless claims for the week ending July 28, with economists expecting an increase of 4,000 to reach 250,000. In addition, the Pending Home Sales Index for July is expected to show a decline of 1.0%.

*星期四：劳工部将发布其关于截至7月28日的周期索赔的报告，经济学家预计将增加4,000人达到25万。此外，预计待定的房屋销售指数预计将显示1.0％。

* Friday: The University of Michigan is set to update its preliminary reading of the consumer sentiment index for August, with economists expecting a slight increase to 64.0 from the July reading of 63.7. Furthermore, the new home sales figures for July are anticipated to remain at 700,000 units, according to economists.

*星期五：密歇根大学将更新其对8月消费者情感指数的初步阅读，经济学家预计从7月份阅读63.7的读数将会略有增加到64.0。此外，根据经济学家的说法，预计7月的新房屋销售数字将保持70万个单位。

The cryptocurrency market is also expected to react to several noteworthy events next week. Notably, Bitcoin's price is likely to be influenced by the upcoming halving event, which is expected to occur in March 2024.

预计下周的加密货币市场还将对几个值得注意的事件做出反应。值得注意的是，比特币的价格可能会受到即将发生的减半活动的影响，预计将在2024年3月举行。

As the leading cryptocurrency edges closer to the price level of $2,000, it is grappling to break free from the significant resistance at $2,000. A glance at the technical indicators suggests that further downside potential remains.

由于领先的加密货币边缘更接近2,000美元的价格水平，因此挣扎着摆脱2,000美元的明显阻力。一瞥技术指标表明仍然存在进一步的下行潜力。

According to recent analysis by Standard Chartered, the price of Bitcoin

根据《标准特许》的最新分析，比特币的价格