以太坊不斷發展的景觀 - 導航L2競爭和經濟模型挑戰

智能合同技術的先驅以太坊（ETH）正面臨著一個重大過渡和不確定性時期。

The banking giant Standard Chartered has revised its 2025 Ethereum price forecast from $10,000 to $4,000, reflecting the growing impact of Layer-2 (L2) solutions on Ethereum's market share and economic activity. The original upbeat prediction, which was unveiled in March, has now been slashed by 60%.

銀行巨頭標準憲章已將其2025年以太坊價格預測從10,000美元提高到4,000美元，這反映了第2層（L2）解決方案對以太坊市場份額和經濟活動的日益增長的影響。最初的樂觀預測於3月揭幕，現在已被削減60％。

The shift in price target comes as L2 solutions, such as Optimism and Arbitrum, continue to gain traction, offering lower transaction fees and faster transaction speeds than the main Ethereum network. This rise has led to the "commoditization" of Ethereum, with fee revenues being reallocated to third parties and the digital asset market becoming disaggregated.

價格目標的變化是因為L2解決方案（例如樂觀和仲裁）繼續獲得吸引力，比主要以太坊網絡提供較低的交易費用和更快的交易速度。這種上升導致了以太坊的“商品化”，收費收入將重新分配給第三方，數字資產市場也被分解。

"The promise of lower transaction fees and faster transaction speeds has led to a rapid migration of users and developers to L2 solutions, diverting a sizable portion of the economic activity away from the main chain," said economists at Standard Chartered in a note on Thursday. "This shift in activity has had a knock-on effect on Ethereum's revenue model, which is primarily based on transaction fees."

“降低交易費用和更快交易速度的承諾導致用戶和開發人員迅速遷移到L2解決方案，從而將大部分經濟活動從主連鎖店轉移了出來，”《標準經濟學家》在周四的一份票據中說。 “活動的這種轉變對以太坊的收入模型產生了敲門影響，該模型主要基於交易費用。”

As L2 solutions continue to siphon off users and developers, the total transaction fees generated by the Ethereum network are expected to decrease even further, posing a challenge to the sustainability of its current economic structure.

隨著L2解決方案繼續消除用戶和開發商，以太坊網絡產生的總交易費將進一步下降，這對其當前經濟結構的可持續性構成了挑戰。

"While Ethereum is still the leading smart contract platform, its dominance is being threatened by the emergence of L2 solutions and the rapid innovation in the blockchain space," the economists added. "The potential for a new, more efficient and scalable blockchain protocol to emerge and displace Ethereum cannot be ruled out."

經濟學家補充說：“儘管以太坊仍然是領先的智能合同平台，但它的主導地位受到L2解決方案的出現和區塊鏈領域的快速創新的威脅。” “無法排除新的，更高效和可擴展的區塊鏈規程出現和置換以太坊的潛力。”

The downgrade of Ethereum's price target also reflects the broader bearishness in the cryptocurrency market, which has seen prices decline sharply in recent months. With L2 solutions continuing to attract users and developers, and the cryptocurrency market remaining in a bear market, it is likely that we will see further reductions in Ethereum's price target as the year progresses.

以太坊的價格目標的降級也反映了加密貨幣市場的更廣泛的看跌，最近幾個月的價格急劇下降。隨著L2解決方案繼續吸引用戶和開發商，並且加密貨幣市場仍在熊市中，隨著年份的發展，我們很可能會看到以太坊的價格目標進一步降低。

However, despite the gloomy outlook, Standard Chartered remains optimistic about the long-term potential of blockchain technology and digital assets. The bank is actively involved in exploring and investing in new blockchain solutions, and it is committed to supporting the development of a sound and sustainable digital asset ecosystem.

然而，儘管前景令人沮喪，但標準特許仍然對區塊鏈技術和數字資產的長期潛力保持樂觀。該銀行積極參與探索和投資新的區塊鏈解決方案，並致力於支持聲音和可持續的數字資產生態系統的開發。

"We believe that blockchain technology has the potential to revolutionize the financial industry and create new opportunities for both businesses and consumers," said the economists. "We are actively involved in researching and testing new blockchain solutions, such as central bank digital currencies and stablecoin solutions."

經濟學家說：“我們認為，區塊鏈技術有可能徹底改變金融業並為企業和消費者創造新的機會。” “我們積極參與研究和測試新的區塊鏈解決方案，例如中央銀行數字貨幣和Stablecoin解決方案。”

Overall, the Standard Chartered economists are keeping a close eye on the evolving landscape of the cryptocurrency market and adjusting their price predictions accordingly. With L2 solutions continuing to disrupt the market and the broader macroeconomic environment remaining uncertain, it will be interesting to see how their analysis and price forecasts develop further.

總體而言，標準的特許經濟學家正在密切關注加密貨幣市場的不斷發展的景觀，並相應地調整其價格預測。隨著L2解決方案繼續破壞市場，更廣泛的宏觀經濟環境仍然不確定，有趣的是，看到他們的分析和價格預測如何進一步發展。

Several useful macroeconomic indicators will be released next week, which may have an impact on market trends. Among them are:

下週將發布一些有用的宏觀經濟指標，這可能會影響市場趨勢。其中包括：

* Monday: The Empire State Manufacturing Index for July is expected to decline to 0.75 from the prior reading of 1.1.

*星期一：從先前閱讀1.1的帝國州製造指數預計將下降到0.75。

* Tuesday: The Labor Department is set to report a 0.2% increase in the Consumer Price Index for July, following a 0.3% rise in June. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to rise by 0.1%, in line with the previous month's reading.

*星期二：在6月上漲0.3％之後，勞工部將報告7月份的消費者價格指數上漲0.2％。不包括波動性食品和能源價格的核心CPI預計將上升0.1％，這與上個月的閱讀相符。

* Wednesday: The Federal Reserve is anticipated to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its July meeting, which will be announced on Wednesday, August 2. Economists polled by Dow Jones and the Monetary Policy members both predict a 25 basis point increase in the federal funds rate to 5.25%-5.5%.

*星期三：預計美聯儲將在7月的會議上將利率提高一個百分點，這將於8月2日（星期三）宣布。陶氏（Dow Jones）對經濟學家進行了調查，貨幣政策成員都預測，聯邦資金利率將增加25個基點，達到5.25％-5.5％。

* Thursday: The Department of Labor is set to release its report on jobless claims for the week ending July 28, with economists expecting an increase of 4,000 to reach 250,000. In addition, the Pending Home Sales Index for July is expected to show a decline of 1.0%.

*星期四：勞工部將發布其關於截至7月28日的周期索賠的報告，經濟學家預計將增加4,000人達到25萬。此外，預計待定的房屋銷售指數預計將顯示1.0％。

* Friday: The University of Michigan is set to update its preliminary reading of the consumer sentiment index for August, with economists expecting a slight increase to 64.0 from the July reading of 63.7. Furthermore, the new home sales figures for July are anticipated to remain at 700,000 units, according to economists.

*星期五：密歇根大學將更新其對8月消費者情感指數的初步閱讀，經濟學家預計從7月份閱讀63.7的讀數將會略有增加到64.0。此外，根據經濟學家的說法，預計7月的新房屋銷售數字將保持70萬個單位。

The cryptocurrency market is also expected to react to several noteworthy events next week. Notably, Bitcoin's price is likely to be influenced by the upcoming halving event, which is expected to occur in March 2024.

預計下週的加密貨幣市場還將對幾個值得注意的事件做出反應。值得注意的是，比特幣的價格可能會受到即將發生的減半活動的影響，預計將在2024年3月舉行。

As the leading cryptocurrency edges closer to the price level of $2,000, it is grappling to break free from the significant resistance at $2,000. A glance at the technical indicators suggests that further downside potential remains.

由於領先的加密貨幣邊緣更接近2,000美元的價格水平，因此掙扎著擺脫2,000美元的明顯阻力。一瞥技術指標表明仍然存在進一步的下行潛力。

According to recent analysis by Standard Chartered, the price of Bitcoin

根據《標準特許》的最新分析，比特幣的價格