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几个月来,以太坊 (ETH) 一直难以跟上比特币 (BTC) 的步伐,ETH/BTC 货币对于 9 月 18 日触及 3.5 年低点。
Ethereum (ETH) has been lagging behind Bitcoin (BTC) for several months now, with the ETH/BTC pair hitting a 3.5-year low on September 18, a level last seen in 2021. While Bitcoin’s price action has largely been anticipated to break out to a new all-time high in Q4, expectations for Ether are more subdued. Polymarket’s predictions give an 85% chance that Ethereum will not reach a new all-time high in 2024.
以太坊 (ETH) 几个月来一直落后于比特币 (BTC),ETH/BTC 货币对于 9 月 18 日触及 3.5 年低点,上次达到该水平是在 2021 年。由于以太币在第四季度创下历史新高,人们对以太坊的预期更加疲软。 Polymarket 的预测认为,以太坊有 85% 的可能性不会在 2024 年创下历史新高。
However, Bitwise Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer suggested in a blog post on September 17 that Ether might present a contrarian investment opportunity in the coming months. The key question remains whether Ether can reverse its downward trend against Bitcoin or will continue to underperform.
然而,Bitwise Asset Management 首席投资官在 9 月 17 日的一篇博客文章中表示,以太坊可能在未来几个月提供逆向投资机会。关键问题仍然是以太币能否扭转其相对于比特币的下跌趋势,或者将继续表现不佳。
ETH/BTC Weekly Technical Analysis
ETH/BTC每周技术分析
The long-term ETH/BTC chart shows a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating market indecision. Bulls are holding the support line while bears maintain a strong resistance at the top of the triangle. Both the moving averages are sloping down, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near the oversold zone, underscoring bearish dominance.
长期 ETH/BTC 图表显示对称三角形图案,表明市场犹豫不决。多头守住支撑线,而空头则在三角形顶部维持强大阻力。两条移动平均线均向下倾斜,相对强弱指数(RSI)徘徊在超卖区域附近,凸显看跌主导地位。
If the pair falls to the support line, buyers are likely to step in. Otherwise, if the price rebounds and breaks above the moving averages, the pair could remain within the triangle for an extended period. A breakout above the triangle’s resistance offers a potential target of 0.18 BTC, surpassing the current all-time high of 0.15 BTC.
如果该货币对跌至支撑线,买家可能会介入。否则,如果价格反弹并突破移动平均线,该货币对可能会在较长时间内保持在三角形内。突破三角形阻力位将提供 0.18 BTC 的潜在目标,超过当前 0.15 BTC 的历史高点。
ETH/BTC Daily Technical Analysis
ETH/BTC 每日技术分析
On the daily chart, the ETH/BTC pair has been trading within a descending channel, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows. But a bullish divergence in the RSI and a flattening 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.04 BTC signal that selling pressure may be waning.
在日线图上,ETH/BTC 货币对一直在下降通道内交易,其特点是一系列较低的高点和较低的低点。但 RSI 的看涨背离以及 20 日指数移动平均线 (EMA) 趋于 0.04 BTC 表明抛售压力可能正在减弱。
A decisive break above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.04 BTC could initiate a move toward the channel’s downtrend line, suggesting a potential trend reversal. On the downside, a break below 0.038 BTC could push the pair toward the lower support line of the descending channel.
决定性突破 0.04 BTC 的 50 日简单移动平均线 (SMA) 可能会引发向该通道下降趋势线的移动,表明潜在的趋势逆转。下行方面,跌破 0.038 BTC 可能会将货币对推向下行通道的下支撑线。
Conclusion
结论
While Ethereum has been underperforming against Bitcoin, the technical outlook shows signs of stabilization. The ETH/BTC pair could be approaching a critical juncture, where a potential breakout might pave the way for a trend reversal. For now, Ether investors are watching closely for key technical signals that could shift the momentum back in their favor.
尽管以太坊相对于比特币的表现一直不佳,但技术前景显示出稳定的迹象。 ETH/BTC 货币对可能正接近一个关键时刻,潜在的突破可能为趋势逆转铺平道路。目前,以太坊投资者正在密切关注关键的技术信号,这些信号可能会使势头重新转向对他们有利的方向。
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