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幾個月來,以太幣 (ETH) 一直難以跟上比特幣 (BTC) 的步伐,ETH/BTC 貨幣對於 9 月 18 日觸及 3.5 年低點。
Ethereum (ETH) has been lagging behind Bitcoin (BTC) for several months now, with the ETH/BTC pair hitting a 3.5-year low on September 18, a level last seen in 2021. While Bitcoin’s price action has largely been anticipated to break out to a new all-time high in Q4, expectations for Ether are more subdued. Polymarket’s predictions give an 85% chance that Ethereum will not reach a new all-time high in 2024.
以太坊 (ETH) 幾個月來一直落後於比特幣 (BTC),ETH/BTC 貨幣對於 9 月 18 日觸及 3.5 年低點,上次達到該水平是在 2021 年。創下歷史新高,人們對以太坊的預期更加疲軟。 Polymarket 的預測認為,以太坊有 85% 的可能性不會在 2024 年創下歷史新高。
However, Bitwise Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer suggested in a blog post on September 17 that Ether might present a contrarian investment opportunity in the coming months. The key question remains whether Ether can reverse its downward trend against Bitcoin or will continue to underperform.
然而,Bitwise Asset Management 首席投資長在 9 月 17 日的部落格文章中表示,以太坊可能在未來幾個月提供逆向投資機會。關鍵問題仍然是以太幣能否扭轉其相對於比特幣的下跌趨勢,或將繼續表現不佳。
ETH/BTC Weekly Technical Analysis
ETH/BTC每週技術分析
The long-term ETH/BTC chart shows a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating market indecision. Bulls are holding the support line while bears maintain a strong resistance at the top of the triangle. Both the moving averages are sloping down, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near the oversold zone, underscoring bearish dominance.
長期 ETH/BTC 圖表顯示對稱三角形圖案,顯示市場猶豫不決。多頭守住支撐線,而空頭則在三角形頂部維持強大阻力。兩條移動平均線均向下傾斜,相對強弱指數(RSI)徘徊在超賣區域附近,凸顯看跌主導地位。
If the pair falls to the support line, buyers are likely to step in. Otherwise, if the price rebounds and breaks above the moving averages, the pair could remain within the triangle for an extended period. A breakout above the triangle’s resistance offers a potential target of 0.18 BTC, surpassing the current all-time high of 0.15 BTC.
如果該貨幣對跌至支撐線,買家可能會介入。突破三角形阻力位將提供 0.18 BTC 的潛在目標,超過目前 0.15 BTC 的歷史高點。
ETH/BTC Daily Technical Analysis
ETH/BTC 每日技術分析
On the daily chart, the ETH/BTC pair has been trading within a descending channel, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows. But a bullish divergence in the RSI and a flattening 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.04 BTC signal that selling pressure may be waning.
在日線圖上,ETH/BTC 貨幣對一直在下降通道內交易,其特徵是一系列較低的高點和較低的低點。但 RSI 的看漲背離以及 20 日指數移動平均線 (EMA) 趨於 0.04 BTC 表明拋售壓力可能正在減弱。
A decisive break above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.04 BTC could initiate a move toward the channel’s downtrend line, suggesting a potential trend reversal. On the downside, a break below 0.038 BTC could push the pair toward the lower support line of the descending channel.
決定性突破 0.04 BTC 的 50 天簡單移動平均線 (SMA) 可能會引發向該通道下降趨勢線的移動,表明潛在的趨勢逆轉。下行方面,跌破 0.038 BTC 可能會將貨幣對推向下行通道的下支撐線。
Conclusion
結論
While Ethereum has been underperforming against Bitcoin, the technical outlook shows signs of stabilization. The ETH/BTC pair could be approaching a critical juncture, where a potential breakout might pave the way for a trend reversal. For now, Ether investors are watching closely for key technical signals that could shift the momentum back in their favor.
儘管以太坊相對於比特幣的表現一直不佳,但技術前景顯示出穩定的跡象。 ETH/BTC 貨幣對可能正接近一個關鍵時刻,潛在的突破可能為趨勢逆轉鋪平道路。目前,以太坊投資者正在密切關注關鍵的技術訊號,這些訊號可能會使勢頭重新轉向對他們有利的方向。
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