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以太坊 (ETH) 兑比特币 (BTC) 已触及三年低点,ETH/BTC 汇率跌至 0.0377,这是自 2021 年 4 月以来的最低水平。
Ethereum (ETH) price slid further against Bitcoin (BTC) on Monday, hitting a three-year low as the ETH/BTC pair fell to 0.0377. This downtrend sparked concern among technical analysts.
周一,以太坊 (ETH) 兑比特币 (BTC) 价格进一步下跌,触及三年低点,ETH/BTC 汇率跌至 0.0377。这种下降趋势引发了技术分析师的担忧。
The ETH/BTC trading pair has been on a clear downtrend, leaving technical analysts worried. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe described the chart as "disgusting," highlighting that Ethereum’s price action continues to weaken despite its expanding fundamentals.
ETH/BTC 交易对一直处于明显的下跌趋势,这让技术分析师感到担忧。加密货币分析师 Michaël van de Poppe 称该图表“令人恶心”,并强调尽管以太坊基本面不断扩大,但其价格走势仍在继续走软。
Adding to the concern, Ethereum price fell 5.3% within 24 hours, according to CoinGecko, while Bitcoin slipped 2.3% to $66,000. This decline pushed the ETH/BTC ratio below 0.038, deepening the bearish trend.
根据 CoinGecko 的数据,以太坊价格在 24 小时内下跌 5.3%,而比特币则下跌 2.3% 至 66,000 美元,这加剧了人们的担忧。此次下跌将 ETH/BTC 比率推至 0.038 以下,加深了看跌趋势。
Not only did Ethereum struggle against Bitcoin, but it also underperformed against Solana. The SOL/ETH trading pair surged 6.3%, reaching a new all-time high amid renewed debates about Ethereum’s roadmap and its ability to compete with emerging networks.
以太坊不仅在与比特币的竞争中表现不佳,而且在与 Solana 的竞争中也表现不佳。在有关以太坊路线图及其与新兴网络竞争能力的新一轮争论中,SOL/ETH 交易对飙升 6.3%,创下历史新高。
Analyst Brian Rudick of GSR pointed out that Ethereum’s underperformance should not be viewed in isolation. He noted that both Bitcoin and Solana were influenced by major events — Bitcoin’s spot ETF success and Solana’s recovery from the FTX collapse — while Ethereum lacked similar catalysts.
GSR分析师布莱恩·鲁迪克(Brian Rudick)指出,不应孤立地看待以太坊的表现不佳。他指出,比特币和 Solana 都受到重大事件的影响——比特币现货 ETF 的成功和 Solana 从 FTX 崩溃中恢复——而以太坊则缺乏类似的催化剂。
Major Trader Reduces ETH/BTC Position Amid Decline
主要交易商在 ETH/BTC 下跌过程中减少头寸
James Fickel, who holds the largest on-chain ETH/BTC long position, continued reducing his exposure as Ethereum price slid further against Bitcoin. Ember monitoring showed Fickel sold 2,000 ETH (about $5.06 million) for 76 WBTC just hours before the ETH/BTC pair hit its lowest point. Over the past two and a half months, Fickel has sold 43,600 ETH in total, exchanging it for 1,766 WBTC ($118.9 million).
随着以太坊价格相对比特币进一步下跌,持有最大链上 ETH/BTC 多头头寸的詹姆斯·菲克尔 (James Fickel) 继续减少其敞口。 Ember 监控显示,就在 ETH/BTC 货币对触及最低点的几个小时前,Fickel 以 76 WBTC 的价格出售了 2,000 个 ETH(约合 506 万美元)。在过去的两个半月里,Fickel 总共出售了 43,600 ETH,换取了 1,766 WBTC(1.189 亿美元)。
Fickel's position peaked in May when he borrowed 2,987 WBTC ($204.7 million) from Aave to buy ETH at a 0.054 ratio. As the ETH/BTC rate kept falling, he started selling in August to repay his loan. With 1,221 WBTC still on loan, Fickel's actions reflect caution among large traders as Ethereum price struggles to rebound.
Fickel 的头寸在 5 月份达到顶峰,当时他从 Aave 借了 2,987 WBTC(2.047 亿美元),以 0.054 的比率购买 ETH。随着 ETH/BTC 汇率持续下跌,他从 8 月份开始抛售以偿还贷款。由于仍有 1,221 WBTC 处于借出状态,Fickel 的行为反映出大型交易商在以太坊价格难以反弹之际的谨慎态度。
Altcoin Season May Provide Rebound Potential in 2025
山寨币季节可能会在 2025 年提供反弹潜力
Despite the current bearish trends, Ethereum could find renewed strength during the next altcoin season following Bitcoin’s halving in 2025. Historically, altcoins, including Ethereum, have gained momentum post-halving, as capital shifts from Bitcoin to major altcoins.
尽管目前趋势看跌,但在 2025 年比特币减半后,以太坊可能会在下一个山寨币季节重新走强。从历史上看,随着资本从比特币转向主要山寨币,包括以太坊在内的山寨币在减半后获得了动力。
A fractal analysis of previous post-halving cycles suggests that the ETH/BTC pair rebounds during this altcoin season. In 2017 and 2020, Ethereum gained momentum following Bitcoin’s rally. This led to a rise in the ETH/BTC ratio. This pattern could repeat, supporting the idea of an ETH/BTC rebound after Bitcoin’s next halving.
对之前减半周期的分形分析表明,ETH/BTC 货币对在本次山寨币季节出现反弹。 2017年和2020年,以太坊跟随比特币上涨势头强劲。这导致 ETH/BTC 比率上升。这种模式可能会重复,支持比特币下一次减半后 ETH/BTC 反弹的想法。
However, technical analyst Aksel Kibar warned that Ethereum's weakness against Bitcoin could accelerate if volatility continues. But the broader market outlook, especially in post-halving periods, supports the possibility of Ethereum recovering some lost ground.
然而,技术分析师 Aksel Kibar 警告称,如果波动持续下去,以太坊相对于比特币的疲软可能会加速。但更广泛的市场前景,尤其是在减半后的时期,支持以太坊收复部分失地的可能性。
Michaël van de Poppe remains optimistic. He notes that if Ethereum can defend its key support levels — particularly $2,700 — it may have a chance to retest higher levels, such as $3,000 to $3,200. However, Ethereum must break through current resistance to shift sentiment from bearish to bullish.
迈克尔·范·德·波普 (Michael van de Poppe) 仍然保持乐观态度。他指出,如果以太坊能够守住其关键支撑位(尤其是 2,700 美元),它可能有机会重新测试更高的水平,例如 3,000 美元至 3,200 美元。然而,以太坊必须突破当前阻力才能将情绪从看跌转为看涨。
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