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以太幣 (ETH) 兌比特幣 (BTC) 已觸及三年低點,ETH/BTC 匯率跌至 0.0377,這是自 2021 年 4 月以來的最低水準。
Ethereum (ETH) price slid further against Bitcoin (BTC) on Monday, hitting a three-year low as the ETH/BTC pair fell to 0.0377. This downtrend sparked concern among technical analysts.
週一,以太幣 (ETH) 兌比特幣 (BTC) 價格進一步下跌,觸及三年低點,ETH/BTC 匯率跌至 0.0377。這種下降趨勢引發了技術分析師的擔憂。
The ETH/BTC trading pair has been on a clear downtrend, leaving technical analysts worried. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe described the chart as "disgusting," highlighting that Ethereum’s price action continues to weaken despite its expanding fundamentals.
ETH/BTC 交易對一直處於明顯的下降趨勢,這讓技術分析師感到擔憂。加密貨幣分析師 Michaël van de Poppe 稱該圖表“令人噁心”,並強調儘管以太坊基本面不斷擴大,但其價格走勢仍在繼續走軟。
Adding to the concern, Ethereum price fell 5.3% within 24 hours, according to CoinGecko, while Bitcoin slipped 2.3% to $66,000. This decline pushed the ETH/BTC ratio below 0.038, deepening the bearish trend.
根據 CoinGecko 的數據,以太幣價格在 24 小時內下跌 5.3%,而比特幣則下跌 2.3% 至 66,000 美元,加劇了人們的擔憂。此次下跌將 ETH/BTC 比率推至 0.038 以下,加深了看跌趨勢。
Not only did Ethereum struggle against Bitcoin, but it also underperformed against Solana. The SOL/ETH trading pair surged 6.3%, reaching a new all-time high amid renewed debates about Ethereum’s roadmap and its ability to compete with emerging networks.
以太坊不僅與比特幣相比表現不佳,而且與 Solana 相比也表現不佳。在以太坊路線圖及其與新興網路競爭能力的新一輪爭論中,SOL/ETH 交易對飆升 6.3%,創下歷史新高。
Analyst Brian Rudick of GSR pointed out that Ethereum’s underperformance should not be viewed in isolation. He noted that both Bitcoin and Solana were influenced by major events — Bitcoin’s spot ETF success and Solana’s recovery from the FTX collapse — while Ethereum lacked similar catalysts.
GSR分析師布萊恩·魯迪克(Brian Rudick)指出,不應孤立地看待以太坊的表現不佳。他指出,比特幣和 Solana 都受到重大事件的影響——比特幣現貨 ETF 的成功和 Solana 從 FTX 崩盤中恢復——而以太坊則缺乏類似的催化劑。
Major Trader Reduces ETH/BTC Position Amid Decline
主要交易商在 ETH/BTC 下跌期間減少頭寸
James Fickel, who holds the largest on-chain ETH/BTC long position, continued reducing his exposure as Ethereum price slid further against Bitcoin. Ember monitoring showed Fickel sold 2,000 ETH (about $5.06 million) for 76 WBTC just hours before the ETH/BTC pair hit its lowest point. Over the past two and a half months, Fickel has sold 43,600 ETH in total, exchanging it for 1,766 WBTC ($118.9 million).
隨著以太坊價格相對比特幣進一步下跌,持有最大鏈上 ETH/BTC 多頭頭寸的詹姆斯·菲克爾 (James Fickel) 繼續減少其敞口。 Ember 監控顯示,就在 ETH/BTC 貨幣對觸及最低點的幾個小時前,Fickel 以 76 WBTC 的價格出售了 2,000 個 ETH(約 506 萬美元)。在過去的兩個半月裡,Fickel 總共出售了 43,600 ETH,換取了 1,766 WBTC(1.189 億美元)。
Fickel's position peaked in May when he borrowed 2,987 WBTC ($204.7 million) from Aave to buy ETH at a 0.054 ratio. As the ETH/BTC rate kept falling, he started selling in August to repay his loan. With 1,221 WBTC still on loan, Fickel's actions reflect caution among large traders as Ethereum price struggles to rebound.
Fickel 的部位在 5 月達到頂峰,當時他從 Aave 借了 2,987 WBTC(2.047 億美元),以 0.054 的比率購買 ETH。隨著 ETH/BTC 匯率持續下跌,他從 8 月開始拋售以償還貸款。由於仍有 1,221 WBTC 處於借出狀態,Fickel 的行為反映出大型交易商在以太坊價格難以反彈之際的謹慎態度。
Altcoin Season May Provide Rebound Potential in 2025
山寨幣季節可能會在 2025 年提供反彈潛力
Despite the current bearish trends, Ethereum could find renewed strength during the next altcoin season following Bitcoin’s halving in 2025. Historically, altcoins, including Ethereum, have gained momentum post-halving, as capital shifts from Bitcoin to major altcoins.
儘管目前趨勢看跌,但在2025 年比特幣減半後,以太坊可能會在下一個山寨幣季節重新走強。幣在減半後獲得了動力。
A fractal analysis of previous post-halving cycles suggests that the ETH/BTC pair rebounds during this altcoin season. In 2017 and 2020, Ethereum gained momentum following Bitcoin’s rally. This led to a rise in the ETH/BTC ratio. This pattern could repeat, supporting the idea of an ETH/BTC rebound after Bitcoin’s next halving.
對先前減半週期的分形分析表明,ETH/BTC 貨幣對在本次山寨幣季節出現反彈。 2017年和2020年,以太坊跟隨比特幣上漲勢頭強勁。這導致 ETH/BTC 比率上升。這種模式可能會重複,支持比特幣下一次減半後 ETH/BTC 反彈的想法。
However, technical analyst Aksel Kibar warned that Ethereum's weakness against Bitcoin could accelerate if volatility continues. But the broader market outlook, especially in post-halving periods, supports the possibility of Ethereum recovering some lost ground.
然而,技術分析師 Aksel Kibar 警告稱,如果波動持續下去,以太坊相對於比特幣的疲軟可能會加速。但更廣泛的市場前景,尤其是在減半後的時期,支持以太坊收復部分失地的可能性。
Michaël van de Poppe remains optimistic. He notes that if Ethereum can defend its key support levels — particularly $2,700 — it may have a chance to retest higher levels, such as $3,000 to $3,200. However, Ethereum must break through current resistance to shift sentiment from bearish to bullish.
邁克爾范德波普仍然保持樂觀。他指出,如果以太坊能夠守住其關鍵支撐位(尤其是 2,700 美元),它可能有機會重新測試更高的水平,例如 3,000 美元至 3,200 美元。然而,以太坊必須突破當前阻力才能將情緒從看跌轉為看漲。
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