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2024 年 11 月 5 日美國總統大選倒數仍在繼續,加密貨幣市場,尤其是比特幣 (BTC) 的興趣激增。
The upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2024, is heating up, and so is the cryptocurrency market. With more than 50 million American voters now involved in the crypto space, the election is set to become a pivotal moment for both politics and digital assets. However, not everyone is optimistic about Bitcoin’s future if Donald Trump secures a second term in office.
2024 年 11 月 5 日即將到來的美國總統大選正在升溫,加密貨幣市場也是如此。現在有超過 5000 萬美國選民參與加密貨幣領域,這次選舉將成為政治和數位資產的關鍵時刻。然而,如果唐納德·川普獲得連任,並不是所有人都對比特幣的未來感到樂觀。
Rising Interest in Cryptocurrency
對加密貨幣的興趣日益濃厚
The growing popularity of cryptocurrencies is evident, with many retail and institutional investors showing increasing interest in digital assets. This shift is reshaping financial landscapes, making it essential for the upcoming president to consider how they will approach cryptocurrency regulation. The intertwining of politics and digital finance means that voters may weigh a candidate’s stance on crypto when casting their ballots.
加密貨幣的日益普及是顯而易見的,許多散戶和機構投資者對數位資產表現出越來越大的興趣。這種轉變正在重塑金融格局,因此即將上任的總統必須考慮如何處理加密貨幣監管。政治和數位金融的交織意味著選民在投票時可能會權衡候選人對加密貨幣的立場。
Schiff’s Warning: A Potential Sell-Off
希夫的警告:潛在的拋售
Peter Schiff, a well-known economist and vocal critic of Bitcoin, has issued a stark warning about the potential impact of a Trump victory on the cryptocurrency market. Schiff believes that if Trump wins, it could lead to a significant sell-off of Bitcoin. His concern is that the excitement surrounding a Trump win might quickly turn into disappointment for crypto investors, causing them to cash out.
著名經濟學家、比特幣直言不諱的批評者彼得希夫(Peter Schiff)對川普獲勝對加密貨幣市場的潛在影響發出了嚴厲警告。希夫認為,如果川普獲勝,可能會導致比特幣大幅拋售。他擔心的是,圍繞川普獲勝的興奮可能很快就會變成加密貨幣投資者的失望,導致他們套現。
According to recent predictions from Poly market, a decentralized prediction marketplace, Trump’s chances of winning the election have risen to about 63 percent. Tech entrepreneur Elon Musk has even suggested that these odds could be as high as 69 percent, based on Trump’s popularity in key swing states.
據去中心化預測市場Poly market近期預測,川普當選的幾率升至63%左右。科技企業家馬斯克甚至表示,根據川普在關鍵搖擺州的受歡迎程度,這種可能性可能高達 69%。
The Gold Standard: An Alternative Safe Haven
黃金標準:另類避風港
In addition to his concerns about Bitcoin, Schiff has emphasized the ongoing appeal of gold as a reliable investment. As global inflation and economic uncertainty loom large, many investors are turning to gold as a protective asset. Recently, gold prices have surged to an all-time high of over $2,730 per ounce, attracting attention from investors seeking stability in a volatile market.
除了對比特幣的擔憂之外,希夫還強調了黃金作為可靠投資的持續吸引力。隨著全球通膨和經濟不確定性日益凸顯,許多投資者開始轉向黃金作為保護性資產。近期,金價飆升至每盎司2,730美元以上的歷史新高,吸引了在動盪的市場中尋求穩定的投資者的注意。
Schiff argues that gold is a safer bet compared to Bitcoin, especially in times of political turmoil. While Bitcoin has gained traction as a digital asset, Schiff believes it still lacks the historical stability and recognition that gold has maintained for centuries.
希夫認為,與比特幣相比,黃金是更安全的選擇,尤其是在政治動盪時期。儘管比特幣作為數位資產受到關注,但希夫認為,它仍然缺乏黃金幾個世紀以來所保持的歷史穩定性和認可。
Bitcoin’s Technical Landscape
比特幣的技術前景
The technical aspects of Bitcoin’s pricing are also under scrutiny. Renowned trader Peter Brandt has noted that Bitcoin is currently at a critical point, which will significantly influence its next move. Brandt suggests that Bitcoin could either drop to around $48,000 or potentially break through to reach a new all-time high in the near future.
比特幣定價的技術方面也受到審查。著名交易員彼得·布蘭特指出,比特幣目前正處於一個關鍵點,這將對其下一步走勢產生重大影響。 Brandt 表示,比特幣可能會跌至 48,000 美元左右,也可能在不久的將來突破並達到新的歷史高點。
Such predictions highlight the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin, especially with external factors like the election influencing investor behavior. The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and the upcoming election could add another layer of complexity.
這些預測凸顯了比特幣的不確定性,尤其是選舉等外部因素影響投資者行為。加密貨幣市場以其波動性而聞名,即將到來的選舉可能會增加另一層複雜性。
Institutional Interest Remains Strong
機構興趣依然濃厚
Despite the concerns raised by Schiff and others, institutional investors continue to show strong interest in Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. With numerous applications for Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) awaiting approval in the U.S., there’s a growing sense of anticipation among major players in the financial sector.
儘管希夫和其他人提出了擔憂,但機構投資者仍然對比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場表現出濃厚的興趣。隨著大量比特幣交易所交易基金(ETF)申請在美國等待批准,金融領域主要參與者的期待感與日俱增。
Many believe that Bitcoin could soon experience a rally similar to those seen in gold and stock markets, especially as more investors recognize it as a legitimate asset class. Institutional involvement can provide the stability and credibility that the cryptocurrency market needs to flourish.
許多人認為,比特幣可能很快就會經歷類似於黃金和股票市場的反彈,特別是隨著越來越多的投資者認識到它是一種合法的資產類別。機構參與可以提供加密貨幣市場蓬勃發展所需的穩定性和可信度。
The Election’s Impact on Crypto
選舉對加密貨幣的影響
As the election date approaches, the interplay between political developments and the cryptocurrency market is expected to intensify. Investors will be keeping a close watch on how the election results might shape regulatory approaches to cryptocurrencies in the U.S.
隨著選舉日期的臨近,政治發展與加密貨幣市場之間的相互作用預計將加劇。投資者將密切關注選舉結果將如何影響美國加密貨幣的監管方式
Whether Schiff’s predictions about a sell-off come true or whether Bitcoin will continue its upward trajectory remains to be seen. The uncertainty surrounding the election, combined with Bitcoin’s inherent volatility, means that investors should stay informed and be prepared for potential shifts in the market.
希夫關於拋售的預測是否成真,或者比特幣是否會繼續其上漲軌跡,還有待觀察。選舉的不確定性,加上比特幣固有的波動性,意味著投資人應該隨時了解情況,並為市場的潛在變化做好準備。
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