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2024 年 11 月 5 日美国总统大选倒计时仍在继续,加密货币市场,尤其是比特币 (BTC) 的兴趣激增。
The upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2024, is heating up, and so is the cryptocurrency market. With more than 50 million American voters now involved in the crypto space, the election is set to become a pivotal moment for both politics and digital assets. However, not everyone is optimistic about Bitcoin’s future if Donald Trump secures a second term in office.
2024 年 11 月 5 日即将到来的美国总统大选正在升温,加密货币市场也是如此。现在有超过 5000 万美国选民参与加密货币领域,此次选举将成为政治和数字资产的关键时刻。然而,如果唐纳德·特朗普获得连任,并不是所有人都对比特币的未来感到乐观。
Rising Interest in Cryptocurrency
对加密货币的兴趣日益浓厚
The growing popularity of cryptocurrencies is evident, with many retail and institutional investors showing increasing interest in digital assets. This shift is reshaping financial landscapes, making it essential for the upcoming president to consider how they will approach cryptocurrency regulation. The intertwining of politics and digital finance means that voters may weigh a candidate’s stance on crypto when casting their ballots.
加密货币的日益普及是显而易见的,许多散户和机构投资者对数字资产表现出越来越大的兴趣。这种转变正在重塑金融格局,因此即将上任的总统必须考虑如何处理加密货币监管。政治和数字金融的交织意味着选民在投票时可能会权衡候选人对加密货币的立场。
Schiff’s Warning: A Potential Sell-Off
希夫的警告:潜在的抛售
Peter Schiff, a well-known economist and vocal critic of Bitcoin, has issued a stark warning about the potential impact of a Trump victory on the cryptocurrency market. Schiff believes that if Trump wins, it could lead to a significant sell-off of Bitcoin. His concern is that the excitement surrounding a Trump win might quickly turn into disappointment for crypto investors, causing them to cash out.
著名经济学家、比特币直言不讳的批评者彼得·希夫(Peter Schiff)对特朗普获胜对加密货币市场的潜在影响发出了严厉警告。希夫认为,如果特朗普获胜,可能会导致比特币大幅抛售。他担心的是,围绕特朗普获胜的兴奋可能很快就会变成加密货币投资者的失望,导致他们套现。
According to recent predictions from Poly market, a decentralized prediction marketplace, Trump’s chances of winning the election have risen to about 63 percent. Tech entrepreneur Elon Musk has even suggested that these odds could be as high as 69 percent, based on Trump’s popularity in key swing states.
据去中心化预测市场Poly market近期预测,特朗普当选的几率升至63%左右。科技企业家埃隆·马斯克甚至表示,根据特朗普在关键摇摆州的受欢迎程度,这一可能性可能高达 69%。
The Gold Standard: An Alternative Safe Haven
黄金标准:另类避风港
In addition to his concerns about Bitcoin, Schiff has emphasized the ongoing appeal of gold as a reliable investment. As global inflation and economic uncertainty loom large, many investors are turning to gold as a protective asset. Recently, gold prices have surged to an all-time high of over $2,730 per ounce, attracting attention from investors seeking stability in a volatile market.
除了对比特币的担忧之外,希夫还强调了黄金作为可靠投资的持续吸引力。随着全球通胀和经济不确定性日益凸显,许多投资者开始转向黄金作为保护性资产。近期,金价飙升至每盎司2730美元以上的历史新高,吸引了在动荡的市场中寻求稳定的投资者的关注。
Schiff argues that gold is a safer bet compared to Bitcoin, especially in times of political turmoil. While Bitcoin has gained traction as a digital asset, Schiff believes it still lacks the historical stability and recognition that gold has maintained for centuries.
希夫认为,与比特币相比,黄金是更安全的选择,尤其是在政治动荡时期。尽管比特币作为一种数字资产受到关注,但希夫认为,它仍然缺乏黄金几个世纪以来所保持的历史稳定性和认可度。
Bitcoin’s Technical Landscape
比特币的技术格局
The technical aspects of Bitcoin’s pricing are also under scrutiny. Renowned trader Peter Brandt has noted that Bitcoin is currently at a critical point, which will significantly influence its next move. Brandt suggests that Bitcoin could either drop to around $48,000 or potentially break through to reach a new all-time high in the near future.
比特币定价的技术方面也受到审查。著名交易员彼得·勃兰特指出,比特币目前正处于一个关键点,这将对其下一步走势产生重大影响。 Brandt 表示,比特币可能会跌至 48,000 美元左右,也可能在不久的将来突破并达到新的历史高点。
Such predictions highlight the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin, especially with external factors like the election influencing investor behavior. The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and the upcoming election could add another layer of complexity.
这些预测凸显了比特币的不确定性,尤其是选举等外部因素影响投资者行为。加密货币市场以其波动性而闻名,即将到来的选举可能会增加另一层复杂性。
Institutional Interest Remains Strong
机构兴趣依然浓厚
Despite the concerns raised by Schiff and others, institutional investors continue to show strong interest in Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. With numerous applications for Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) awaiting approval in the U.S., there’s a growing sense of anticipation among major players in the financial sector.
尽管希夫和其他人提出了担忧,但机构投资者仍然对比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场表现出浓厚的兴趣。随着大量比特币交易所交易基金(ETF)申请在美国等待批准,金融领域主要参与者的期待感与日俱增。
Many believe that Bitcoin could soon experience a rally similar to those seen in gold and stock markets, especially as more investors recognize it as a legitimate asset class. Institutional involvement can provide the stability and credibility that the cryptocurrency market needs to flourish.
许多人认为,比特币可能很快就会经历类似于黄金和股票市场的反弹,特别是随着越来越多的投资者认识到它是一种合法的资产类别。机构参与可以提供加密货币市场蓬勃发展所需的稳定性和可信度。
The Election’s Impact on Crypto
选举对加密货币的影响
As the election date approaches, the interplay between political developments and the cryptocurrency market is expected to intensify. Investors will be keeping a close watch on how the election results might shape regulatory approaches to cryptocurrencies in the U.S.
随着选举日期的临近,政治发展与加密货币市场之间的相互作用预计将加剧。投资者将密切关注选举结果将如何影响美国加密货币的监管方式
Whether Schiff’s predictions about a sell-off come true or whether Bitcoin will continue its upward trajectory remains to be seen. The uncertainty surrounding the election, combined with Bitcoin’s inherent volatility, means that investors should stay informed and be prepared for potential shifts in the market.
希夫关于抛售的预测是否成真,或者比特币是否会继续其上涨轨迹,还有待观察。选举的不确定性,加上比特币固有的波动性,意味着投资者应该随时了解情况,并为市场的潜在变化做好准备。
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