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众所周知,以太坊是当前牛市中表现最令人失望的加密货币之一,落后于比特币和其他 Layer-1。
Key Takeaways
要点
Despite lagging behind Bitcoin and other Layer-1s in the current bull run, Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin by more than 3% last week.
尽管在当前的牛市中以太坊落后于比特币和其他 Layer-1,但上周以太坊的表现仍优于比特币 3% 以上。
Let’s analyze the Ethereum price action and see if this is just a temporary occurrence or if it will be a long-lasting trend.
让我们分析一下以太坊的价格走势,看看这只是暂时的现象还是一个长期的趋势。
Ethereum Bounces vs Bitcoin
以太坊反弹 vs 比特币
The daily time frame Ethereum to Bitcoin chart shows a decline under a descending resistance trend line since August. The decline led to a low of ₿0.038 on Sept. 19. Ethereum moved above the trend line on Oct. 20, after creating a triple bottom pattern.
以太坊到比特币的每日时间框架图表显示,自 8 月份以来,以太坊在下降阻力趋势线下方出现下跌。此次下跌导致 9 月 19 日跌至 0.038 英镑的低点。以太坊在形成三重底形态后,于 10 月 20 日升至趋势线上方。
If the increase continues, the next resistance will be just above ₿0.0041.
如果继续上涨,下一个阻力位将略高于₿0.0041。
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) imply the upward movement will continue. Both have generated bullish divergences (green) and are moving upward, signs of a positive trend.
每日相对强弱指数(RSI)和移动平均线收敛/发散(MACD)意味着上涨趋势将继续。两者都产生了看涨背离(绿色)并且正在向上移动,这是积极趋势的迹象。
The weekly time frame ETH/BTC chart has been bearish since Dec. 2021. The ETH price created a lower high in September and has fallen at an accelerated rate since then.
自 2021 年 12 月以来,ETH/BTC 每周时间框架图表一直看跌。ETH 价格在 9 月份创造了较低的高点,此后加速下跌。
The decline is contained inside a descending parallel channel and ETH trades very close to the trend line. While there is a growing bullish divergence in the weekly RSI, it has not led to anything notable yet.
下跌被限制在下降的平行通道内,并且 ETH 的交易非常接近趋势线。尽管每周 RSI 的看涨背离不断扩大,但尚未带来任何值得注意的结果。
The channel’s resistance trend line is at ₿0.052, coinciding with a long-term horizontal resistance area.
该通道的阻力趋势线位于₿0.052,与长期水平阻力区域重合。
So, even though the daily chart shows a bounce, the weekly one reveals it is insignificant compared to the preceding downward trend.
因此,尽管日线图显示反弹,但周线图显示,与之前的下降趋势相比,反弹幅度微不足道。
Ethereum Trend Reversal?
以太坊趋势逆转?
The weekly time frame Ethereum chart shows that the price bounced at a long-term horizontal support level of $2,400. After the third bounce (white icons), ETH created a weekly bullish candlestick with a magnitude of 11%. This is the largest bullish candlestick since a 25% one in May.
以太坊每周时间框架图表显示,价格在 2,400 美元的长期水平支撑位反弹。在第三次反弹(白色图标)之后,ETH 形成了一个幅度为 11% 的每周看涨烛台。这是自 5 月份 25% 以来最大的看涨烛台。
The MACD is close to giving a very interesting bullish signal since it is very close to making a bullish cross (black circle). The previous time such a cross occurred was in October 2023, triggering a 146% price increase.
MACD 接近给出一个非常有趣的看涨信号,因为它非常接近形成看涨交叉(黑色圆圈)。上一次发生此类交叉是在 2023 年 10 月,引发了 146% 的价格上涨。
The daily chart supports the bullish Ethereum price prediction from the weekly one.
日线图支持了周线图看涨的以太坊价格预测。
Ethereum’s price action shows a breakout from a descending resistance trend line existing since August. The breakout happened after three previous unsuccessful tries.
以太坊的价格走势显示其突破了自八月以来存在的下降阻力趋势线。这次突破是在之前三次尝试失败之后发生的。
Just before the breakout, the daily RSI increased above 50 and the MACD moved above 0, both signs that the trend is turning bullish.
就在突破之前,每日 RSI 升至 50 以上,MACD 升至 0 以上,这两个迹象都表明趋势正在转向看涨。
The main resistance area for Ethereum is at $2,900. A breakout above it can greatly accelerate the upward movement toward $3,500.
以太坊的主要阻力位是 2,900 美元。突破它可以大大加速向 3,500 美元的上涨。
Key Resistance Ahead
前方的关键阻力
While the Ethereum price outperformed Bitcoin last week, it is still far away from the level required to confirm a bullish trend reversal.
尽管上周以太坊价格跑赢了比特币,但距离确认看涨趋势逆转所需的水平仍相去甚远。
On the other hand, the Ethereum to USD pair is more bullish.
另一方面,以太坊兑美元货币对则更为看涨。
If the Ethereum price breaks out from the $2,900 resistance area, it can accelerate its rate of increase toward the next resistance at $3,500.
如果以太坊价格突破 2,900 美元阻力区域,则可以加速上涨至下一个阻力 3,500 美元。
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