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自 3 月份触及历史高点以来,比特币 (BTC) 经历了显着的波动,存在多个关键阻力和支撑相互作用。
Key Takeaways
要点
Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced notable volatility since reaching its all-time high in March, with several key resistance and support interactions.
自 3 月份触及历史高点以来,比特币 (BTC) 经历了显着的波动,存在多个关键阻力和支撑相互作用。
As the current corrective phase nears its end, Bitcoin’s next move could define the direction of its long-term trend.
随着当前的调整阶段接近尾声,比特币的下一步走势可能会决定其长期趋势的方向。
Bitcoin Price Analysis
比特币价格分析
After reaching its all-time high of $73,770 in mid-March, BTC has been moving within a descending channel on the daily chart.
在 3 月中旬达到 73,770 美元的历史高点后,比特币在日线图上一直在下降通道内移动。
On Aug. 5, it dropped below $50,000 before quickly rebounding to close the daily candle above $54,000, signaling a potential bullish phase. However, this was invalidated as BTC failed to form a five-wave pattern.
8 月 5 日,它跌破 50,000 美元,然后迅速反弹,收于 54,000 美元上方,预示着潜在的看涨阶段。然而,由于 BTC 未能形成五浪模式,这一说法无效。
On Sept. 6, BTC revisited the $53,000 area to test for support, leading to another rise to $61,400. There, it met descending resistance for the third time, confirming this level on Sept. 13.
9 月 6 日,BTC 重新回到 53,000 美元区域测试支撑,并再次上涨至 61,400 美元。在那里,它第三次遇到下降阻力,并于 9 月 13 日确认了这一水平。
After a slight pullback, the price continued moving to the upside, reaching a high of $66,516 on Sept. 28. A downturn followed as a retest of the broken resistance for support at $59,300 on Oct. 10.
在小幅回调后,价格继续上涨,于 9 月 28 日达到 66,516 美元的高点。随后下跌,重新测试 10 月 10 日突破阻力位 59,300 美元的支撑位。
Another interaction with the ascending support resulted in a bounce and another higher high of $69,470 yesterday, Oct. 20. Although we saw a 16% rise in October alone, BTC’s price is still in an overall corrective structure.
与上升支撑的另一次互动导致昨天(10 月 20 日)反弹并再创更高高点 69,470 美元。尽管仅 10 月份我们就看到了 16% 的上涨,但 BTC 的价格仍处于整体修正结构中。
The daily chart relative strength index reached the overbought zone at 70% of yesterday’s high, indicating that the upside room is limited. If the price drops, it could lead to lower values than in September.
日线图相对强弱指数到达昨日高点70%的超买区域,表明上涨空间有限。如果价格下跌,可能会导致价格低于 9 月份。
The main question is whether or not its correction starting from March ended as a WXY on Aug. 5 or will be prolonged by two more waves, ending as a WXYXZ.
主要问题是,从3月份开始的调整是否会在8月5日以WXY结束,或者会再延长两波,以WXYXZ结束。
BTC Price Prediction
比特币价格预测
Analyzing the wave structure, we can see that there is a chance BTC entered a new bull phase on Aug. 5, as the proceeding ascending channel could be counted as a five-wave pattern.
分析波浪结构,我们可以看到,BTC 有可能在 8 月 5 日进入新的牛市阶段,因为正在进行的上升通道可以算作五浪模式。
Considering the overlapping waves, it could only be a leading diagonal if true. However, a downturn is expected as it reaches the ascending resistance and shows signs of weakness.
考虑到重叠的波浪,如果为真,它只能是主对角线。然而,当其达到上升阻力并显示出疲软迹象时,预计将出现下滑。
We will determine how likely the bullish outlook is from its momentum and strength. If the price finds support above the 0.618 Fib level at $56,750 and increases again, it could imply BTC is headed to a new all-time high next.
我们将根据其势头和强度来确定看涨前景的可能性有多大。如果价格在 0.618 Fib 水平 56,750 美元上方找到支撑并再次上涨,则可能意味着 BTC 接下来将创下历史新高。
But if it continues below, the chance of Bitcoin going below its August 5 level would be higher.
但如果继续跌破,比特币跌破 8 月 5 日水平的可能性将会更高。
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