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自 3 月觸及歷史高點以來,比特幣 (BTC) 經歷了顯著的波動,存在多個關鍵阻力和支撐相互作用。
Key Takeaways
重點
Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced notable volatility since reaching its all-time high in March, with several key resistance and support interactions.
自 3 月觸及歷史高點以來,比特幣 (BTC) 經歷了顯著的波動,存在多個關鍵阻力和支撐相互作用。
As the current corrective phase nears its end, Bitcoin’s next move could define the direction of its long-term trend.
隨著當前的調整階段接近尾聲,比特幣的下一步走勢可能會決定其長期趨勢的方向。
Bitcoin Price Analysis
比特幣價格分析
After reaching its all-time high of $73,770 in mid-March, BTC has been moving within a descending channel on the daily chart.
在 3 月中旬達到 73,770 美元的歷史高點後,比特幣在日線圖上一直在下降通道內移動。
On Aug. 5, it dropped below $50,000 before quickly rebounding to close the daily candle above $54,000, signaling a potential bullish phase. However, this was invalidated as BTC failed to form a five-wave pattern.
8 月 5 日,它跌破 50,000 美元,然後迅速反彈,收於 54,000 美元上方,預示著潛在的看漲階段。然而,由於 BTC 未能形成五浪模式,因此這一說法無效。
On Sept. 6, BTC revisited the $53,000 area to test for support, leading to another rise to $61,400. There, it met descending resistance for the third time, confirming this level on Sept. 13.
9 月 6 日,BTC 重新回到 53,000 美元區域測試支撐,並再次上漲至 61,400 美元。在那裡,它第三次遇到下降阻力,並在 9 月 13 日確認了這一水平。
After a slight pullback, the price continued moving to the upside, reaching a high of $66,516 on Sept. 28. A downturn followed as a retest of the broken resistance for support at $59,300 on Oct. 10.
在小幅回檔後,價格繼續上漲,於 9 月 28 日達到 66,516 美元的高點。
Another interaction with the ascending support resulted in a bounce and another higher high of $69,470 yesterday, Oct. 20. Although we saw a 16% rise in October alone, BTC’s price is still in an overall corrective structure.
與上升支撐的另一次互動導致昨天(10 月 20 日)反彈並再創更高高點 69,470 美元。
The daily chart relative strength index reached the overbought zone at 70% of yesterday’s high, indicating that the upside room is limited. If the price drops, it could lead to lower values than in September.
日線圖相對強弱指數到達昨日高點70%的超買區域,顯示上漲空間有限。如果價格下跌,可能會導致價格低於 9 月。
The main question is whether or not its correction starting from March ended as a WXY on Aug. 5 or will be prolonged by two more waves, ending as a WXYXZ.
主要問題是,從3月開始的調整是否會在8月5日以WXY結束,或會再延長兩波,以WXYXZ結束。
BTC Price Prediction
比特幣價格預測
Analyzing the wave structure, we can see that there is a chance BTC entered a new bull phase on Aug. 5, as the proceeding ascending channel could be counted as a five-wave pattern.
分析波浪結構,我們可以看到,BTC 有可能在 8 月 5 日進入新的牛市階段,因為正在進行的上升通道可以算作五浪模式。
Considering the overlapping waves, it could only be a leading diagonal if true. However, a downturn is expected as it reaches the ascending resistance and shows signs of weakness.
考慮到重疊的波浪,如果為真,它只能是主對角線。然而,當其達到上升阻力並顯示出疲軟跡象時,預計將出現下滑。
We will determine how likely the bullish outlook is from its momentum and strength. If the price finds support above the 0.618 Fib level at $56,750 and increases again, it could imply BTC is headed to a new all-time high next.
我們將根據其勢頭和強度來確定看漲前景的可能性有多大。如果價格在 0.618 Fib 水平 56,750 美元上方找到支撐並再次上漲,則可能意味著 BTC 接下來將創下歷史新高。
But if it continues below, the chance of Bitcoin going below its August 5 level would be higher.
但如果繼續跌破,比特幣跌破 8 月 5 日水準的可能性將會更高。
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