以太坊 ETF 截止日期临近：五月临近，梦想破灭

Will the Ethereum ETF Dream Die in May?

以太坊 ETF 梦想会在五月破灭吗？

The much-anticipated arrival of an Ethereum ETF by May 2024 seems to be slipping further out of reach, with recent developments casting a shadow over its likelihood.

备受期待的以太坊 ETF 将于 2024 年 5 月到来，这一目标似乎进一步变得遥不可及，最近的事态发展为其可能性蒙上了阴影。

SEC's Deafening Silence

SEC 震耳欲聋的沉默

Communication between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and potential ETF issuers has been conspicuously absent, raising alarm bells. With just 73 days to go before the May deadline, the usual process of feedback, revisions, and meetings appears to have stalled.

美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 与潜在 ETF 发行人之间明显缺乏沟通，这敲响了警钟。距离 5 月份的截止日期仅剩 73 天，通常的反馈、修改和会议流程似乎陷入了停滞。

Gensler's Crypto Concerns

Gensler 对加密货币的担忧

SEC Chair Gary Gensler has historically categorized Ethereum as a security, making him hesitant to approve ETH ETFs unless they are reclassified as a commodity like Bitcoin. This stance poses a significant hurdle for ETF approval.

SEC 主席 Gary Gensler 历来将以太坊归类为一种证券，这让他对于批准 ETH ETF 犹豫不决，除非它们被重新归类为像比特币一样的商品。这一立场对 ETF 的批准构成了重大障碍。

Political Heat

政治热度

Following the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and the SEC's legal defeat against Grayscale in August 2023, Gensler may be wary of further political backlash surrounding another crypto-related decision.

继比特币 ETF 获得批准以及 2023 年 8 月 SEC 在法律上击败 Grayscale 后，Gensler 可能会对围绕另一项加密货币相关决定的进一步政治反弹保持警惕。

Analyst Sentiment Shifts

分析师情绪转变

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has dramatically lowered his initial estimate, now placing the chances of ETH ETF approval by May 2024 at a mere 35%. This revised outlook reflects the growing skepticism and lack of progress in recent months.

彭博 ETF 分析师埃里克·巴尔丘纳斯 (Eric Balchunas) 大幅降低了他的初步估计，目前认为 ETH ETF 到 2024 年 5 月获得批准的可能性仅为 35%。这一修订后的前景反映了近几个月来日益增长的怀疑和缺乏进展。

Industry Doubts

业界质疑

Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and TD Cowen, have also expressed concerns about meeting the May deadline. GSR, a crypto market-making firm, has acknowledged that its initial optimism is waning in the absence of visible progress.

摩根大通（JPMorgan）和道明考恩（TD Cowen）等主要金融机构也对能否在 5 月份的最后期限前完成任务表示担忧。加密货币做市公司 GSR 承认，由于缺乏明显进展，其最初的乐观情绪正在减弱。

Post-May 2024: A Glimmer of Hope?

2024 年 5 月后：一线希望？

Despite the current pessimism, some experts believe that a spot ETH ETF is inevitable in the long run. Eric Balchunas maintains that approval will likely happen eventually, but the exact timeframe remains unclear. Resolving the current regulatory issues surrounding crypto ETFs is expected to pave the way for future approvals.

尽管目前存在悲观情绪，但一些专家认为，从长远来看，现货 ETH ETF 是不可避免的。埃里克·巴尔丘纳斯 (Eric Balchunas) 坚称，最终可能会获得批准，但确切的时间表仍不清楚。解决当前围绕加密 ETF 的监管问题预计将为未来的批准铺平道路。

Potential Game-Changers

潜在的游戏规则改变者

Certain events could potentially alter the trajectory. The upcoming US presidential election on November 5, 2024, could bring a change in leadership or a reshuffle within the SEC, leading to a more favorable stance toward cryptocurrency regulations.

某些事件可能会改变轨迹。即将于 2024 年 11 月 5 日举行的美国总统选举可能会带来领导层的变化或 SEC 内部的改组，从而导致对加密货币监管采取更有利的立场。

Final Thoughts

最后的想法

The outlook for Ethereum ETF approval by May 2024 is far from promising. The SEC's lack of communication and Gensler's stance on Ethereum pose significant challenges. However, long-term optimism persists, with the expectation that regulatory hurdles will eventually be addressed, opening the door for future approvals. It is crucial to stay informed through credible sources to monitor the evolving regulatory landscape surrounding crypto ETFs.

以太坊 ETF 到 2024 年 5 月获得批准的前景远不乐观。 SEC 缺乏沟通以及 Gensler 对以太坊的立场构成了重大挑战。然而，长期乐观情绪依然存在，预计监管障碍最终将得到解决，为未来的批准打开大门。通过可靠来源随时了解情况以监控加密 ETF 不断变化的监管环境至关重要。