以太坊 ETF 截止日期將近：五月臨近，夢想破滅

Will the Ethereum ETF Dream Die in May?

以太坊 ETF 夢想五月會破滅嗎？

The much-anticipated arrival of an Ethereum ETF by May 2024 seems to be slipping further out of reach, with recent developments casting a shadow over its likelihood.

備受期待的以太坊 ETF 將於 2024 年 5 月到來，這一目標似乎進一步變得遙不可及，最近的事態發展為其可能性蒙上了陰影。

SEC's Deafening Silence

SEC 震耳欲聾的沉默

Communication between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and potential ETF issuers has been conspicuously absent, raising alarm bells. With just 73 days to go before the May deadline, the usual process of feedback, revisions, and meetings appears to have stalled.

美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 與潛在 ETF 發行人之間明顯缺乏溝通，這敲響了警鐘。距離 5 月的截止日期僅剩 73 天，通常的回饋、修改和會議流程似乎陷入了停滯。

Gensler's Crypto Concerns

Gensler 對加密貨幣的擔憂

SEC Chair Gary Gensler has historically categorized Ethereum as a security, making him hesitant to approve ETH ETFs unless they are reclassified as a commodity like Bitcoin. This stance poses a significant hurdle for ETF approval.

SEC 主席 Gary Gensler 歷來將以太坊歸類為一種證券，這讓他對於批准 ETH ETF 猶豫不決，除非它們被重新歸類為像比特幣一樣的商品。這一立場對 ETF 的批准構成了重大障礙。

Political Heat

政治熱度

Following the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and the SEC's legal defeat against Grayscale in August 2023, Gensler may be wary of further political backlash surrounding another crypto-related decision.

繼比特幣 ETF 獲得批准以及 2023 年 8 月 SEC 在法律上擊敗 Grayscale 後，Gensler 可能會對圍繞另一項加密貨幣相關決定的進一步政治反彈保持警惕。

Analyst Sentiment Shifts

分析師情緒轉變

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has dramatically lowered his initial estimate, now placing the chances of ETH ETF approval by May 2024 at a mere 35%. This revised outlook reflects the growing skepticism and lack of progress in recent months.

彭博 ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 大幅降低了他的初步估計，目前認為 ETH ETF 到 2024 年 5 月獲得批准的可能性僅為 35%。這項修訂後的前景反映了近幾個月來日益增長的懷疑和缺乏進展。

Industry Doubts

業界質疑

Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and TD Cowen, have also expressed concerns about meeting the May deadline. GSR, a crypto market-making firm, has acknowledged that its initial optimism is waning in the absence of visible progress.

摩根大通（JPMorgan）和道明考恩（TD Cowen）等主要金融機構也對能否在 5 月的最後期限前完成任務表示擔憂。加密貨幣做市公司 GSR 承認，由於缺乏明顯進展，其最初的樂觀情緒正在減弱。

Post-May 2024: A Glimmer of Hope?

2024 年 5 月後：一線希望？

Despite the current pessimism, some experts believe that a spot ETH ETF is inevitable in the long run. Eric Balchunas maintains that approval will likely happen eventually, but the exact timeframe remains unclear. Resolving the current regulatory issues surrounding crypto ETFs is expected to pave the way for future approvals.

儘管目前存在悲觀情緒，但一些專家認為，從長遠來看，現貨 ETH ETF 是不可避免的。埃里克·巴爾丘納斯 (Eric Balchunas) 堅稱，最終可能會獲得批准，但確切的時間表仍不清楚。解決目前圍繞加密 ETF 的監管問題預計將為未來的批准鋪平道路。

Potential Game-Changers

潛在的遊戲規則改變者

Certain events could potentially alter the trajectory. The upcoming US presidential election on November 5, 2024, could bring a change in leadership or a reshuffle within the SEC, leading to a more favorable stance toward cryptocurrency regulations.

某些事件可能會改變軌跡。即將於 2024 年 11 月 5 日舉行的美國總統大選可能會帶來領導層的變化或 SEC 內部的改組，從而導致對加密貨幣監管採取更有利的立場。

Final Thoughts

最後的想法

The outlook for Ethereum ETF approval by May 2024 is far from promising. The SEC's lack of communication and Gensler's stance on Ethereum pose significant challenges. However, long-term optimism persists, with the expectation that regulatory hurdles will eventually be addressed, opening the door for future approvals. It is crucial to stay informed through credible sources to monitor the evolving regulatory landscape surrounding crypto ETFs.

以太坊 ETF 到 2024 年 5 月獲得批准的前景並不一定樂觀。 SEC 缺乏溝通以及 Gensler 對以太坊的立場構成了重大挑戰。然而，長期樂觀情緒依然存在，預計監管障礙最終將得到解決，為未來的批准打開大門。透過可靠來源隨時了解情況以監控加密 ETF 不斷變化的監管環境至關重要。