2024 年大选：狗狗币和 Solana 可能面临市场波动，具体取决于美国总统选举结果

与比特币相比，经历了一年普遍表现平平的加密货币之后，狗狗币和 Solana 等规模较小的加密货币可能会发现自己的表现

As we approach the U.S. presidential election on 6th November 2024, smaller cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin and Solana stand to be significantly affected by the outcome. Despite Bitcoin’s resilience, climbing 4.6% to $70,165 on Tuesday and remaining just 5% below its record high of $73,800 set in March, altcoins may experience substantial volatility.

随着 2024 年 11 月 6 日美国总统大选临近，狗狗币和 Solana 等规模较小的加密货币将受到选举结果的重大影响。尽管比特币表现强劲，周二上涨 4.6% 至 70,165 美元，仅比 3 月份创下的历史高点 73,800 美元仅低 5%，但山寨币可能会经历大幅波动。

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation, has surged over 65% this year, showing signs of recovery from earlier downturns. On the same day, Dogecoin experienced a notable 17% jump, which can be attributed, in part, to comments from its prominent supporter, Elon Musk. Musk hinted at the possibility of establishing a Department of Government Efficiency, or D.O.G.E., should Donald Trump win the election, further galvanising the meme-inspired cryptocurrency’s community.

比特币是市值最大的加密货币，今年已飙升超过 65%，显示出从早期低迷中复苏的迹象。同一天，狗狗币经历了 17% 的显着上涨，这在一定程度上可以归因于其著名支持者埃隆·马斯克的评论。马斯克暗示，如果唐纳德·特朗普赢得选举，可能会成立政府效率部（DOGE），从而进一步刺激受迷因启发的加密货币社区。

Founder of the crypto fund Split Capital, Zaheer Ebtikar, spoke on the wider implications of the election for various cryptocurrencies. “For Bitcoin, the election doesn’t matter much,” he stated, indicating that the flagship cryptocurrency might remain relatively insulated from political outcomes. However, Ebtikar noted that altcoins could face substantial challenges should Kamala Harris emerge victorious. “They are the biggest winners or losers of the election,” he added, suggesting a pronounced sensitivity among smaller cryptocurrencies to regulatory changes that could follow a Harris administration.

加密货币基金 Split Capital 的创始人 Zaheer Ebtikar 谈到了选举对各种加密货币的更广泛影响。 “对于比特币来说，选举并不重要，”他表示，这表明旗舰加密货币可能仍然相对不受政治结果的影响。然而，埃布蒂卡尔指出，如果卡马拉·哈里斯获胜，山寨币可能会面临重大挑战。他补充说：“他们是这次选举的最大赢家或输家。”这表明小型加密货币对哈里斯政府可能出现的监管变化非常敏感。

Throughout history, altcoins—cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin—have exhibited strong performance cycles, especially when investors pivot towards smaller-cap coins after Bitcoin rallies. But in the past year, most altcoins have struggled to keep pace with Bitcoin, except for memecoins like Dogecoin, which are often characterised by their lack of utility. As the original memecoin, Dogecoin's fortunes are closely tied to cultural and social media trends, often propelled by endorsements from high-profile figures like Musk.

纵观历史，山寨币（比特币以外的加密货币）表现出强劲的表现周期，尤其是当投资者在比特币上涨后转向小盘股时。但在过去的一年里，大多数山寨币都在努力跟上比特币的步伐，除了像狗狗币这样的模因币，它们的特点往往是缺乏实用性。作为最初的模因币，狗狗币的命运与文化和社交媒体趋势密切相关，通常受到马斯克等知名人物认可的推动。

Ebtikar further elaborated on the potential repercussions for the crypto landscape depending on the election outcome. A victory for Harris, he posited, could lead to increased regulatory scrutiny of the cryptocurrency sector. In contrast, Bitcoin and Ether—considered more decentralised than many altcoins—might manage to weather these regulations more effectively. During the campaign, Trump has adopted a robust pro-crypto stance, while his Democratic counterpart, Harris, has indicated support for a regulatory framework aimed at digital assets. This divergence in approach has led many within the crypto community to view a Trump victory as significantly more favourable for the industry.

Ebtikar 进一步阐述了选举结果对加密货币格局的潜在影响。他认为，哈里斯的胜利可能会导致对加密货币行业的监管审查加强。相比之下，比特币和以太币被认为比许多山寨币更加去中心化，可能会更有效地应对这些法规。在竞选期间，特朗普采取了强有力的支持加密货币的立场，而他的民主党对手哈里斯则表示支持针对数字资产的监管框架。这种方法上的分歧导致加密货币界的许多人认为特朗普的胜利对该行业更加有利。

The sentiments surrounding the election's impact on the cryptocurrency market do not solely hinge on individual candidates. Some traders maintain that regardless of the election results, the broader market outlook for cryptocurrencies remains optimistic. Shiliang Tang, president of the principal trading firm Arbelos Markets, expressed confidence in the medium-term trajectory of the markets. “We think markets are headed higher regardless of who wins, as we move past the elections and back to macro and the Fed,” he stated, indicating that fundamental economic factors will ultimately play a vital role in shaping market dynamics.

围绕选举对加密货币市场影响的情绪不仅仅取决于个别候选人。一些交易员认为，无论选举结果如何，加密货币的整体市场前景仍然乐观。主要贸易公司 Arbelos Markets 总裁唐世良 (Shiliang Tang) 对市场的中期轨迹表示信心。他表示：“我们认为，无论谁获胜，市场都会走高，因为我们已经过了选举，回到了宏观经济和美联储。”这表明基本经济因素最终将在塑造市场动态方面发挥至关重要的作用。