2024 年大選：狗狗幣和 Solana 可能面臨市場波動，取決於美國總統選舉結果

與比特幣相比，經歷了一年普遍表現平平的加密貨幣之後，狗狗幣和 Solana 等規模較小的加密貨幣可能會發現自己的表現

As we approach the U.S. presidential election on 6th November 2024, smaller cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin and Solana stand to be significantly affected by the outcome. Despite Bitcoin’s resilience, climbing 4.6% to $70,165 on Tuesday and remaining just 5% below its record high of $73,800 set in March, altcoins may experience substantial volatility.

隨著 2024 年 11 月 6 日美國總統大選臨近，狗狗幣和 Solana 等較小型加密貨幣將受到選舉結果的重大影響。儘管比特幣表現強勁，週二上漲 4.6% 至 70,165 美元，僅比 3 月創下的歷史高點 73,800 美元僅低 5%，但山寨幣可能會經歷大幅波動。

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation, has surged over 65% this year, showing signs of recovery from earlier downturns. On the same day, Dogecoin experienced a notable 17% jump, which can be attributed, in part, to comments from its prominent supporter, Elon Musk. Musk hinted at the possibility of establishing a Department of Government Efficiency, or D.O.G.E., should Donald Trump win the election, further galvanising the meme-inspired cryptocurrency’s community.

比特幣是市值最大的加密貨幣，今年已飆升超過 65%，顯示出從早期低迷中復甦的跡象。同一天，狗狗幣經歷了 17% 的顯著上漲，這在一定程度上可以歸因於其著名支持者馬斯克的評論。馬斯克暗示，如果唐納德·川普贏得選舉，可能會成立政府效率部（DOGE），從而進一步刺激受迷因啟發的加密貨幣社群。

Founder of the crypto fund Split Capital, Zaheer Ebtikar, spoke on the wider implications of the election for various cryptocurrencies. “For Bitcoin, the election doesn’t matter much,” he stated, indicating that the flagship cryptocurrency might remain relatively insulated from political outcomes. However, Ebtikar noted that altcoins could face substantial challenges should Kamala Harris emerge victorious. “They are the biggest winners or losers of the election,” he added, suggesting a pronounced sensitivity among smaller cryptocurrencies to regulatory changes that could follow a Harris administration.

加密貨幣基金 Split Capital 的創始人 Zaheer Ebtikar 談到了選舉對各種加密貨幣的更廣泛影響。 「對於比特幣來說，選舉並不重要，」他表示，這表明旗艦加密貨幣可能仍然相對不受政治結果的影響。然而，埃布蒂卡爾指出，如果卡馬拉·哈里斯獲勝，山寨幣可能會面臨重大挑戰。他補充說：「它們是這次選舉的最大贏家或輸家。」這表明小型加密貨幣對哈里斯政府可能出現的監管變化非常敏感。

Throughout history, altcoins—cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin—have exhibited strong performance cycles, especially when investors pivot towards smaller-cap coins after Bitcoin rallies. But in the past year, most altcoins have struggled to keep pace with Bitcoin, except for memecoins like Dogecoin, which are often characterised by their lack of utility. As the original memecoin, Dogecoin's fortunes are closely tied to cultural and social media trends, often propelled by endorsements from high-profile figures like Musk.

縱觀歷史，山寨幣（比特幣以外的加密貨幣）表現出強勁的表現週期，尤其是當投資者在比特幣上漲後轉向小型股時。但在過去的一年裡，大多數山寨幣都在努力跟上比特幣的步伐，除了像狗狗幣這樣的迷因幣，它們的特徵往往是缺乏實用性。作為最初的迷因幣，狗狗幣的命運與文化和社交媒體趨勢密切相關，通常受到馬斯克等知名人物認可的推動。

Ebtikar further elaborated on the potential repercussions for the crypto landscape depending on the election outcome. A victory for Harris, he posited, could lead to increased regulatory scrutiny of the cryptocurrency sector. In contrast, Bitcoin and Ether—considered more decentralised than many altcoins—might manage to weather these regulations more effectively. During the campaign, Trump has adopted a robust pro-crypto stance, while his Democratic counterpart, Harris, has indicated support for a regulatory framework aimed at digital assets. This divergence in approach has led many within the crypto community to view a Trump victory as significantly more favourable for the industry.

Ebtikar 進一步闡述了選舉結果對加密貨幣格局的潛在影響。他認為，哈里斯的勝利可能會導致對加密貨幣產業的監管審查加強。相較之下，比特幣和以太幣被認為比許多山寨幣更去中心化，可能會更有效地應對這些法規。在競選期間，川普採取了強有力的支持加密貨幣的立場，而他的民主黨對手哈里斯則表示支持針對數位資產的監管框架。這種方法上的分歧導致加密貨幣界的許多人認為川普的勝利對該行業更加有利。

The sentiments surrounding the election's impact on the cryptocurrency market do not solely hinge on individual candidates. Some traders maintain that regardless of the election results, the broader market outlook for cryptocurrencies remains optimistic. Shiliang Tang, president of the principal trading firm Arbelos Markets, expressed confidence in the medium-term trajectory of the markets. “We think markets are headed higher regardless of who wins, as we move past the elections and back to macro and the Fed,” he stated, indicating that fundamental economic factors will ultimately play a vital role in shaping market dynamics.

圍繞選舉對加密貨幣市場影響的情緒不僅取決於個別候選人。一些交易員認為，無論選舉結果如何，加密貨幣的整體市場前景仍然樂觀。主要貿易公司 Arbelos Markets 總裁唐世良 (Shiliang Tang) 對市場的中期軌跡表示信心。他表示：「我們認為，無論誰獲勝，市場都會走高，因為我們已經過了選舉，回到了宏觀經濟和聯準會。」這表明基本經濟因素最終將在塑造市場動態方面發揮至關重要的作用。