美元的统治随着全球安全货币受到威胁

专家警告说，以通货膨胀，关税和对美国领导力的全球信任的消失。

The U.S. dollar’s reign as the world’s safe-haven currency is coming under threat with Donald Trump’s administration rolling out universal tariffs despite the threat of global backlash, a financial expert has warned.

一位金融专家警告说，随着全球安全货币的威胁，美元的统治局势正在受到威胁，尽管唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的政府受到了全球强烈反对的威胁。

A major shake-up to the global financial order appears to be looming as President Trump announced plans for sweeping tariffs on all U.S. imports in a move that threatens to escalate global trade tensions and marks a radical departure from decades of open-market policy.

随着特朗普总统宣布计划对美国所有进口的所有进口征收关税的计划，这一举动有可能升级全球贸易紧张局势，并标志着与数十年的开放市场政策的彻底出发，对全球金融秩序的重大改组似乎正在迫在眉睫。

While the dollar may spike in the short term as investors react to the shock by retreating into what they think is safety, the nature of this ballooning crisis is different, according to Nigel Green, CEO of financial advisory firm Devere Group.

金融咨询公司Devere Group的首席执行官Nigel Green表示，尽管投资者撤退到他们认为是安全性，但由于投资者对冲击的反应可能会在短期内飙升，但这种热门危机的性质却不同。

“The threat is coming from inside the U.S., and the dollar’s safe-haven status might not hold under sustained inflation, weakening real yields, and growing distrust in American economic leadership,” the expert warned Monday.

该专家周一警告说：“威胁来自美国境内，美元的安全状况可能不会在持续的通货膨胀，削弱实际收益率和对美国经济领导力不信任的情况下保持不变。”

He further explained that the inflationary pressures stemming from tariff-induced cost increases could weaken the U.S. economic outlook.

他进一步解释说，由于关税引起的成本增加而产生的通货膨胀压力可能会削弱美国的经济前景。

“Trump is also aggressively lobbying for interest rate cuts. So, we’re looking at a weaker growth outlook combined with rising prices and political pressure on the Fed to stay dovish. That’s a textbook setup for dollar weakness over the medium term.”

“特朗普还积极游说降低利率。​​因此，我们正在研究增长前景较弱，加上价格上涨和对美联储保持贫穷的政治压力的上涨。这是中期美元弱点的教科书设置。”

However, Green argued that trust—not just economic size—sustains the dollar’s global dominance, which “Blanket tariffs attack that foundation directly.”

但是，格林认为，信任（不仅仅是经济规模）巩固了美元的全球统治地位，该国的全球统治地位“盖帽直接攻击了该基础”。

If global partners begin to view the U.S. as hostile or opportunistic, the financial consequences could be dire, according to the executive, who pointed out that visible cracks have already formed in the system.

据高管指出，如果全球合作伙伴开始将美国视为敌对或机会主义，那么财务后果可能会很可怕，他指出，系统中已经形成了可见的裂缝。

“We could be witnessing the early stages of global moves away from the dollar as the ultimate safe-haven currency.

“我们可能会目睹全球阶段的早期阶段，从美元汇款中，这是最终的安全货币。

The Devere CEO highlighted that ongoing diversification efforts by central banks abroad attest to this shift.

Devere首席执行官强调，国外中央银行的持续多元化努力证明了这一转变。

“Central banks in China, Russia, and parts of the Middle East have been gradually reducing their reliance on U.S. Treasuries as they diversify their foreign reserves.” He also pointed to rising interest in alternatives.

“中国，俄罗斯和中东部分地区的中央银行逐渐减少了他们对美国国库的依赖，因为它们使外国储备多样化。”他还指出，对替代方案的兴趣上升。

“The rise of digital currencies and bilateral trade agreements in non-dollar denominations further suggest a slow but real shift in the global monetary order.”

“数字货币和双边贸易协定在非美元面额中的兴起进一步表明，全球货币秩序的变化缓慢但真正的转变。”

Looking ahead, Green warned that backlash from global trading partners could worsen the situation.

展望未来，格林警告说，全球贸易伙伴的反对可能会使情况恶化。

“If real yields fall, trust erodes, and America is seen as the source—not the shield—of global instability, we believe the dollar could begin to lose its unique safe-haven advantage.

“如果真正的收益率下降，信任的侵蚀和美国被视为全球不稳定的来源，而不是盾牌，我们相信美元可能会开始失去其独特的避风势优势。

He urged investors to rethink their portfolio strategies.

他敦促投资者重新考虑其投资组合策略。

“Investors must position accordingly. Holding only USD-based assets or assuming the dollar will always outperform in a crisis is no longer a viable strategy. Tariffs will bite. Inflation will rise. And if the rest of the world sees the U.S. abusing its monetary power and abandoning open trade principles, the shift away from the dollar will accelerate. This could be an historical turning point for the U.S. currency.”

“投资者必须相应地定位。仅持有基于美元的资产或假设美元在危机中的表现总是不再是一种可行的策略。关税会咬伤。通货膨胀将会上升。如果世界其他地区的其他国家看到其滥用货币权力并放弃其货币上的权力并放弃开放式贸易原则，那么远离Dollar的转变将成为历史上的转折点。