ETH ETF 令人失望的表现：背后是什么？

7 月下旬，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 继 1 月份批准现货比特币 ETF 后，允许第一批现货以太坊 ETF 开始交易。

Bitcoin (BTC) price briefly surged past the $93K on Wednesday to hit a new all-time high (ATH) of $93,477. However, since then, prices have taken a breather, and at the time of writing, BTC/USD is trading at $88,430, up 110% year-to-date (YTD).

周三，比特币 (BTC) 价格短暂飙升至 93,000 美元以上，创下历史新高 (ATH) 93,477 美元。然而，自那以后，价格出现了喘息，截至撰写本文时，BTC/USD 的交易价格为 88,430 美元，年初至今 (YTD) 上涨了 110%。

These gains follow a 154.5% return recorded by the world's largest asset with a market cap of $1.8 trillion in 2023.

在此之前，市值达 1.8 万亿美元的全球最大资产在 2023 年创下了 154.5% 的回报率。

While to some it may seem it's now too late to buy Bitcoin, that may not be the case according to Galaxy Digital's Mike Novogratz and Bitwise's chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, who believes $500k is coming for BTC.

虽然对某些人来说，现在购买比特币似乎为时已晚，但 Galaxy Digital 的 Mike Novogratz 和 Bitwise 的首席投资官 Matt Hougan 认为情况可能并非如此，他们认为 BTC 的价格将达到 50 万美元。

These bold targets are contingent on Bitcoin being accepted as a store of value and President-elect Donald Trump delivering on his promise of setting up a BTC Strategic Reserve. So, there's, of course, no guarantee that Bitcoin will hit these numbers. For now, the big target that the crypto king must first hit is $100,000.

这些大胆的目标取决于比特币被接受为价值储存手段以及当选总统唐纳德·特朗普兑现其建立比特币战略储备的承诺。因此，当然不能保证比特币会达到这些数字。目前，加密王首先要达到的大目标是 10 万美元。

With Bitcoin hitting new ATHs every other day now, the market sentiments have shifted to euphoria across the broad crypto market. These sentiments have the total cryptocurrency market cap now sitting around $3.144 trillion, surpassing the Nov. 2021 peak.

随着比特币每隔一天达到新的最高点，整个加密货币市场的市场情绪已经转向乐观。这些情绪使得加密货币总市值目前约为 3.144 万亿美元，超过了 2021 年 11 月的峰值。

Amidst this bull market mania, which is inducing FOMO among traders and investors, Ethereum continues to suffer.

在这场牛市狂热中，交易者和投资者都产生了“错失恐惧症”，以太坊继续遭受损失。

The second largest cryptocurrency with a market cap of $386 billion is currently trading at $3,069, still 37% away from its 2021 ATH of $4,880. So far, in 2024, ETH has only managed to go up by a meager 40%, trailing behind the equally lackluster performance from last year when it only registered a 90% upside.

市值达 3,860 亿美元的第二大加密货币目前交易价格为 3,069 美元，距离 2021 年的最高峰值 4,880 美元仍有 37% 的差距。到目前为止，2024 年 ETH 只上涨了区区 40%，落后于去年同样黯淡的表现，去年仅上涨了 90%。

Even Bitcoin Cash has managed to record 69% gains YTD. If we take a look at the coins among the top 100 cryptos by market cap that have performed poorly than ETH, they include the likes of XRP, ADA, AVAX, UNI, LINK, DOT, ICP, XLM, ETC, KAS, STX, MNT, RUNE, PYTH, POL, XMR, ARB, FIL, INJ, HBAR, TIA, VET, OP, IMX, ATOM, SEI, GRT, WLD, MKR, BSV, ALGO, LDO, BTT, GALA, and HNT.

就连比特币现金今年迄今也实现了 69% 的涨幅。如果我们看一下市值排名前 100 的加密货币中表现比 ETH 差的币种，它们包括 XRP、ADA、AVAX、UNI、LINK、DOT、ICP、XLM、ETC、KAS、STX、 MNT、RUNE、PYTH、POL、XMR、ARB、FIL、INJ、HBAR、TIA、VET、OP、IMX、ATOM、SEI、 GRT、WLD、MKR、BSV、ALGO、LDO、BTT、GALA 和 HNT。

While ETH is struggling against USD, it is getting absolutely demolished against BTC, with the ETHBTC ratio continuing to hit new multi-year lows. Currently, the ETHBTC ratio is at 0.0349, aiming for a new 2024 low, which, if things continue to go as they are, may come soon enough.

虽然 ETH 兑美元表现不佳，但它兑 BTC 的表现却完全崩溃，ETHBTC 比率继续创下多年来的新低。目前，ETHBTC 比率为 0.0349，目标是 2024 年新低，如果事情继续这样发展，这个低点可能很快就会到来。

In contrast, the SOLETH is rising to new highs. During the peak of the last bull market, the SOLETH ratio topped out at $0.05785. During the subsequent bear market, this ratio fell as low as 0.0069 when the SOL price dropped below $10 after the FTX bankruptcy.

相比之下，SOLETH 正在升至新高。在上一次牛市的顶峰期间，SOLETH 比率最高达到 0.05785 美元。在随后的熊市中，当 FTX 破产后 SOL 价格跌破 10 美元时，该比率跌至 0.0069。

However, ever since then, the SOLETH has been on the rise, climbing to a new high of 0.0723 on Nov. 6. These new highs reflect Solana rapidly closing the gap with Ethereum in almost every economic metric.

然而，从那时起，SOLETH 一直在上涨，并于 11 月 6 日攀升至新高 0.0723。这些新高反映出 Solana 在几乎所有经济指标上都在迅速缩小与以太坊的差距。

A report by hedge fund Syncracy Capital revealed that Solana's real economic value (REV) was just 1% of Ethereum's REV in Oct. 2023, only to surge to 111% a year later, in Oct. 2024. This growth was driven mainly by meme coin mania, which led to higher network volumes, higher fees, and higher total value locked (TVL).

对冲基金 Syncracy Capital 的一份报告显示，2023 年 10 月，Solana 的实际经济价值 (REV) 仅相当于以太坊 REV 的 1%，但一年后的 2024 年 10 月飙升至 111%。这种增长主要是由 meme 推动的货币狂热，导致更高的网络容量、更高的费用和更高的锁定总价值（TVL）。

Interestingly, Ethereum's modest gains came despite the crypto asset being approved for a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF), which was expected to drive ETH to new highs. Back in July, Hougan of Bitwise had forecasted that the price of Ethereum could surge past $5,000 following the ETF launch. He said the following at that time:

有趣的是，尽管以太坊获得了现货交易所交易基金（ETF）的批准，但该加密资产仍出现了小幅上涨，预计这将推动以太坊创下新高。早在 7 月份，Bitwise 的 Hougan 就曾预测，在 ETF 推出后，以太坊的价格可能会飙升至 5,000 美元以上。他当时说了这样的话：

“By year-end, I'm confident the new highs will be in.”

“到年底，我相信新高将会出现。”

His bullish thesis was based on Ethereum ETFs eventually capturing inflows after a choppy start. So, why are Ethereum ETFs, unlike Bitcoin ETFs, unable to attract institutions?

他的看涨论点是基于以太坊 ETF 在经历了动荡的开局后最终吸引了资金流入。那么，为什么以太坊ETF与比特币ETF不同，无法吸引机构呢？

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The Disappointing Performance of ETH ETF: What's Behind It?

ETH ETF 令人失望的表现：背后是什么？

It was late in July that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) allowed the first spot

7月下旬，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）批准了第一笔现货