ETH ETF 令人失望的表現：背後是什麼？

7 月下旬，美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 繼 1 月批准現貨比特幣 ETF 後，允許第一批現貨以太坊 ETF 開始交易。

Bitcoin (BTC) price briefly surged past the $93K on Wednesday to hit a new all-time high (ATH) of $93,477. However, since then, prices have taken a breather, and at the time of writing, BTC/USD is trading at $88,430, up 110% year-to-date (YTD).

週三，比特幣 (BTC) 價格短暫飆升至 93,000 美元以上，創下歷史新高 (ATH) 93,477 美元。然而，自那以後，價格出現了喘息，截至撰寫本文時，BTC/USD 的交易價格為 88,430 美元，年初至今 (YTD) 上漲了 110%。

These gains follow a 154.5% return recorded by the world's largest asset with a market cap of $1.8 trillion in 2023.

在此之前，市值達 1.8 兆美元的全球最大資產在 2023 年創下了 154.5% 的回報率。

While to some it may seem it's now too late to buy Bitcoin, that may not be the case according to Galaxy Digital's Mike Novogratz and Bitwise's chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, who believes $500k is coming for BTC.

雖然對某些人來說，現在購買比特幣似乎為時已晚，但 Galaxy Digital 的 Mike Novogratz 和 Bitwise 的首席投資長 Matt Hougan 認為情況可能並非如此，他們認為 BTC 的價格將達到 50 萬美元。

These bold targets are contingent on Bitcoin being accepted as a store of value and President-elect Donald Trump delivering on his promise of setting up a BTC Strategic Reserve. So, there's, of course, no guarantee that Bitcoin will hit these numbers. For now, the big target that the crypto king must first hit is $100,000.

這些大膽的目標取決於比特幣被接受為價值儲存手段以及當選總統唐納德·川普兌現其建立比特幣戰略儲備的承諾。因此，當然不能保證比特幣會達到這些數字。目前，加密王首先要達到的大目標是 10 萬美元。

With Bitcoin hitting new ATHs every other day now, the market sentiments have shifted to euphoria across the broad crypto market. These sentiments have the total cryptocurrency market cap now sitting around $3.144 trillion, surpassing the Nov. 2021 peak.

隨著比特幣每隔一天達到新的最高點，整個加密貨幣市場的市場情緒已經轉向樂觀。這些情緒使得加密貨幣總市值目前約為 3.144 兆美元，超過了 2021 年 11 月的最高峰。

Amidst this bull market mania, which is inducing FOMO among traders and investors, Ethereum continues to suffer.

在這場牛市狂熱中，交易者和投資者都產生了“錯失恐懼症”，以太坊繼續遭受損失。

The second largest cryptocurrency with a market cap of $386 billion is currently trading at $3,069, still 37% away from its 2021 ATH of $4,880. So far, in 2024, ETH has only managed to go up by a meager 40%, trailing behind the equally lackluster performance from last year when it only registered a 90% upside.

市值達 3,860 億美元的第二大加密貨幣目前交易價格為 3,069 美元，距離 2021 年的最高峰值 4,880 美元仍有 37% 的差距。到目前為止，2024 年 ETH 只上漲了區區 40%，落後去年同樣黯淡的表現，去年僅上漲了 90%。

Even Bitcoin Cash has managed to record 69% gains YTD. If we take a look at the coins among the top 100 cryptos by market cap that have performed poorly than ETH, they include the likes of XRP, ADA, AVAX, UNI, LINK, DOT, ICP, XLM, ETC, KAS, STX, MNT, RUNE, PYTH, POL, XMR, ARB, FIL, INJ, HBAR, TIA, VET, OP, IMX, ATOM, SEI, GRT, WLD, MKR, BSV, ALGO, LDO, BTT, GALA, and HNT.

就連比特幣現金今年迄今也實現了 69% 的漲幅。如果我們看一下市值排名前 100 的加密貨幣中表現比 ETH 差的幣種，它們包括 XRP、ADA、AVAX、UNI、LINK、DOT、ICP、XLM、ETC、KAS、STX、 MNT、RUNE、PYTH、 POL、XMR、ARB、FIL、INJ、HBAR、TIA、VET、OP、IMX、ATOM、SEI、GRT、WLD、MKR、BSV、ALGO、LDO、BTT、GALA 和HNT。

While ETH is struggling against USD, it is getting absolutely demolished against BTC, with the ETHBTC ratio continuing to hit new multi-year lows. Currently, the ETHBTC ratio is at 0.0349, aiming for a new 2024 low, which, if things continue to go as they are, may come soon enough.

雖然 ETH 兌美元表現不佳，但它兌 BTC 的表現完全崩潰，ETHBTC 比率繼續創下多年來的新低。目前，ETHBTC 比率為 0.0349，目標是 2024 年新低，如果事情繼續這樣發展，這個低點可能很快就會到來。

In contrast, the SOLETH is rising to new highs. During the peak of the last bull market, the SOLETH ratio topped out at $0.05785. During the subsequent bear market, this ratio fell as low as 0.0069 when the SOL price dropped below $10 after the FTX bankruptcy.

相比之下，SOLETH 正在升至新高。在上一次牛市的頂峰期間，SOLETH 比率最高達到 0.05785 美元。在隨後的熊市中，當 FTX 破產後 SOL 價格跌破 10 美元時，該比率跌至 0.0069。

However, ever since then, the SOLETH has been on the rise, climbing to a new high of 0.0723 on Nov. 6. These new highs reflect Solana rapidly closing the gap with Ethereum in almost every economic metric.

然而，從那時起，SOLETH 一直在上漲，並於 11 月 6 日攀升至新高 0.0723。 這些新高反映出 Solana 在幾乎所有經濟指標上都在迅速縮小與以太坊的差距。

A report by hedge fund Syncracy Capital revealed that Solana's real economic value (REV) was just 1% of Ethereum's REV in Oct. 2023, only to surge to 111% a year later, in Oct. 2024. This growth was driven mainly by meme coin mania, which led to higher network volumes, higher fees, and higher total value locked (TVL).

對沖基金Syncracy Capital 的報告顯示，2023 年10 月，Solana 的實際經濟價值(REV) 僅相當於以太坊REV 的1%，但一年後的2024 年10 月飆升至111%。主要是由meme 推動的貨幣狂熱，導致更高的網路容量、更高的費用和更高的鎖定總價值（TVL）。

Interestingly, Ethereum's modest gains came despite the crypto asset being approved for a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF), which was expected to drive ETH to new highs. Back in July, Hougan of Bitwise had forecasted that the price of Ethereum could surge past $5,000 following the ETF launch. He said the following at that time:

有趣的是，儘管以太坊獲得了現貨交易所交易基金（ETF）的批准，但該加密資產仍出現了小幅上漲，預計這將推動以太坊創下新高。早在 7 月份，Bitwise 的 Hougan 就曾預測，在 ETF 推出後，以太坊的價格可能會飆升至 5,000 美元以上。他當時說了這樣的話：

“By year-end, I'm confident the new highs will be in.”

“到年底，我相信新高將會出現。”

His bullish thesis was based on Ethereum ETFs eventually capturing inflows after a choppy start. So, why are Ethereum ETFs, unlike Bitcoin ETFs, unable to attract institutions?

他的看漲論點是基於以太坊 ETF 在經歷了動蕩的開局後最終吸引了資金流入。那麼，為什麼以太坊ETF與比特幣ETF不同，無法吸引機構呢？

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The Disappointing Performance of ETH ETF: What's Behind It?

ETH ETF 令人失望的表現：背後是什麼？

It was late in July that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) allowed the first spot

7月下旬，美國證券交易委員會（SEC）批准了第一筆現貨