加密货币的野心逐渐减弱

经历了多个创新周期后，加密行业正进入价格持续上涨的繁荣期。然而，光鲜亮丽的表面之下却隐藏着隐忧——创新引擎逐渐放缓，风险厌恶情绪逐渐侵蚀雄心和冒险精神。

The crypto industry has experienced multiple cycles of innovation, and after enduring years of rejection, spot ETFs have finally launched, attracting record inflows for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Trump's election paved the way for the crypto industry to approach mainstream American society, and with increased lobbying power, Gensler and other opponents encountered greater pressure. Now, the crypto industry is recognized as an independent sector, with Bitcoin even regarded as a reserve asset by some countries.

加密行业经历了多个创新周期，在经历了多年的拒绝之后，现货ETF终于推出，为比特币和以太坊ETF吸引了创纪录的资金流入。特朗普的当选为加密行业接近美国主流社会铺平了道路，而随着游说力量的增强，Gensler 等反对者遇到了更大的压力。现在，加密行业被认为是一个独立的行业，比特币甚至被一些国家视为储备资产。

In terms of price, I remain optimistic about the crypto market, with the main upward momentum coming from external macro factors. However, I believe the internal innovation engine of the crypto industry is gradually slowing down.

价格方面，我对加密货币市场保持乐观，主要上涨动力来自外部宏观因素。不过，我相信加密行业内部的创新引擎正在逐渐放缓。

As the industry matures, the pace of innovation naturally slows down, yet prices may continue to rise even in the face of slowing innovation.

随着行业的成熟，创新的步伐自然会放缓，但即使创新放缓，价格也可能继续上涨。

But I dare say that the slowdown in innovation is not the root of the problem, but rather a symptom. The real issue is that our ambition is fading, and the industry's aversion to risk is increasing.

但我敢说，创新放缓不是问题的根源，而是一种症状。真正的问题是我们的雄心正在减弱，而行业对风险的厌恶却在增加。

The crypto industry once rose due to its radical ideas that aimed to disrupt the world, but now it seems satisfied with pursuing regulatory approval and institutional adoption.

加密货币行业曾经因其旨在颠覆世界的激进想法而崛起，但现在它似乎满足于寻求监管批准和机构采用。

Don't just take my word for it; look at what Vitalik wrote in his 2023 blog post about "bringing Ethereum back to its cyberpunk spirit":

不要只相信我的话；看看 Vitalik 在他 2023 年的博客文章中写的关于“让以太坊回归赛博朋克精神”的内容：

"Our purpose is not just to develop isolated tools and games, but to holistically promote a freer and more open society and economy, allowing technology, society, and economy to integrate with each other."

“我们的目的不仅仅是开发孤立的工具和游戏，而是整体推动更自由、更开放的社会和经济，让技术、社会和经济相互融合。”

Think carefully: what innovations have emerged in this cycle?

仔细想想：这个周期中出现了哪些创新？

AI×Crypto can be considered one.

AI×加密货币可以被认为是其中之一。

But AI is an external innovation; without it, this cycle might still be stuck in the hype of meme coins.

但人工智能是一种外部创新；如果没有它，这个周期可能仍会陷入模因币的炒作之中。

Personally, I do not like meme coins because their only real goal is to get rich quickly, rather than truly changing the world. The purpose of these projects is merely to make you rich enough so that you no longer care about the problems of the outside world.

就我个人而言，我不喜欢模因币，因为它们唯一的真正目标是快速致富，而不是真正改变世界。这些项目的目的仅仅是让你足够富有，这样你就不再关心外界的问题。

Do you remember that phrase we often used in the last cycle?

您还记得上一周期我们经常使用的那句话吗？

"[Project Name] is the most egalitarian thing we've seen, ambitious, and if successful, will truly change the social structure."

“[项目名称]是我们见过的最平等的事情，雄心勃勃，如果成功，将真正改变社会结构。”

However, in contrast, in the last cycle we witnessed various radical innovations:

然而，相比之下，在上一个周期中我们见证了各种激进的创新：

Between 2020 and 2021, innovations in token economics also peaked, such as:

2020年至2021年间，代币经济的创新也达到顶峰，例如：

Current projects and VC supporters are more inclined to adopt time-tested simple token economic models, favoring robust operations, as they typically only have one opportunity for TGE.

当前的项目和 VC 支持者更倾向于采用经过时间考验的简单代币经济模型，有利于稳健的运营，因为他们通常只有一次 TGE 的机会。

$EIGEN (Subjective Objectivity Token) is a rare exception in the field of token economics.

$EIGEN（主观客观性代币）是代币经济学领域中罕见的例外。

The ICO frenzy of 2017 can be said to be the peak of ambition, when various bold ideas attempted to decentralize everything. It was a bubble filled with imagination, many ideas were too crazy to realize, and most projects failed, forcing the surviving projects to dilute their visions.

2017年的ICO狂热可以说是野心的顶峰，各种大胆的想法试图去中心化一切。那是一个充满想象力的泡沫，许多想法过于疯狂而无法实现，大多数项目都失败了，迫使幸存的项目淡化了他们的愿景。

However, these wild concepts attracted a group of people yearning for a radically different world, including myself.

然而，这些疯狂的概念吸引了一群向往完全不同世界的人，包括我自己。

I recently read "Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation" by B. Hobart and T. Huber, where they explain that transformative progress comes from small groups with a unified vision, well-funded yet almost unaccountable. They argue that although financial bubbles have a negative reputation, many breakthroughs in the past benefited from them, and future progress will also be driven by this.

我最近读了 B. Hobart 和 T. Huber 所著的《繁荣：泡沫与停滞的终结》，他们在书中解释说，变革性的进步来自于拥有统一愿景、资金充足但几乎不负责任的小团体。他们认为，尽管金融泡沫声名狼藉，但过去的许多突破都从中受益，未来的进步也将由此推动。

While we have not completely bid farewell to the era of "lack of accountability," with increased regulation, the industry's risk aversion is rising, which may be the last bubble cycle capable of bringing about actual innovation. I hope that the bubble of AI combined with crypto can at least spawn one or two killer applications.

虽然我们还没有完全告别“问责缺失”的时代，但随着监管的加强，行业的避险情绪正在上升，这可能是最后一个能够带来实际创新的泡沫周期。我希望人工智能与加密货币相结合的泡沫至少能够催生一两个杀手级应用程序。

It's not to say that there are no ambitious crypto projects today; here are some worth watching:

这并不是说现在没有雄心勃勃的加密项目；而是说现在没有雄心勃勃的加密项目。以下是一些值得关注的内容：

You might think that WorldCoin's eye scan is too radical, or that Liquity v2 and its stablecoin named $BOLD cannot succeed. But these are precisely the risks that ambitious protocols are willing to take. They are the most egalitarian things we've seen, ambitious, and if successful, will truly change the structural foundations of society.

你可能会认为 WorldCoin 的目光扫描过于激进，或者 Liquity v2 及其名为 $BOLD 的稳定币无法成功。但这些正是雄心勃勃的协议愿意承担的风险。它们是我们所见过的最平等的事物，雄心勃勃，如果成功，将真正改变社会的结构基础。

Ethereum is notably absent from this list; perhaps I am being a bit harsh on ETH, but Vitalik's cyberpunk vision is hardly felt on Twitter. The upcoming fork will have some very minor updates, at least users won't notice. It will abandon sharding technology and L1 scaling, and the best part we've recently thought of is a slight increase in the gas limit of blocks.

值得注意的是，以太坊并未出现在这份名单中。也许我对 ETH 有点苛刻，但 Vitalik 的赛博朋克愿景在 Twitter 上几乎感受不到。即将到来的分叉将会有一些非常小的更新，至少用户不会注意到。它将放弃分片技术和 L1 扩展，我们最近想到的最好的部分是区块的 Gas 限制略有增加。

Ethereum seems to have outsourced both execution and ambition to L2.

以太坊似乎已经将执行力和野心都外包给了 L2。

The North Star of ETH is still not visible. I hope to see Ethereum greatness again and hope for the emergence of radical new ideas. However, currently, Ethereum seems to have accepted the viewpoint that modular blockchains cannot scale, while Solana has chosen a completely different path, sticking to a single-chain model,

ETH 的北极星仍然不可见。我希望再次看到以太坊的伟大，并希望出现激进的新想法。然而，目前以太坊似乎已经接受了模块化区块链无法扩容的观点，而Solana则选择了完全不同的道路，坚持单链模型，