加密貨幣的野心逐漸減弱

經歷了多個創新週期後，加密產業正進入價格持續上漲的繁榮期。然而，光鮮亮麗的表面之下卻隱藏著隱憂──創新引擎逐漸放緩，風險厭惡情緒逐漸侵蝕雄心和冒險精神。

The crypto industry has experienced multiple cycles of innovation, and after enduring years of rejection, spot ETFs have finally launched, attracting record inflows for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Trump's election paved the way for the crypto industry to approach mainstream American society, and with increased lobbying power, Gensler and other opponents encountered greater pressure. Now, the crypto industry is recognized as an independent sector, with Bitcoin even regarded as a reserve asset by some countries.

加密產業經歷了多個創新週期，在經歷了多年的拒絕之後，現貨ETF終於推出，為比特幣和以太坊ETF吸引了創紀錄的資金流入。川普的當選為加密產業接近美國主流社會鋪平了道路，而隨著遊說力量的增強，Gensler 等反對者遇到了更大的壓力。現在，加密貨幣行業被認為是一個獨立的行業，比特幣甚至被一些國家視為儲備資產。

In terms of price, I remain optimistic about the crypto market, with the main upward momentum coming from external macro factors. However, I believe the internal innovation engine of the crypto industry is gradually slowing down.

價格方面，我對加密貨幣市場保持樂觀，主要上漲動力來自外部宏觀因素。不過，我相信加密產業內部的創新引擎正在逐漸放緩。

As the industry matures, the pace of innovation naturally slows down, yet prices may continue to rise even in the face of slowing innovation.

隨著產業的成熟，創新的步伐自然會放緩，但即使創新放緩，價格也可能繼續上漲。

But I dare say that the slowdown in innovation is not the root of the problem, but rather a symptom. The real issue is that our ambition is fading, and the industry's aversion to risk is increasing.

但我敢說，創新放緩不是問題的根源，而是一種症狀。真正的問題是我們的雄心壯志正在減弱，而產業對風險的厭惡卻在增加。

The crypto industry once rose due to its radical ideas that aimed to disrupt the world, but now it seems satisfied with pursuing regulatory approval and institutional adoption.

加密產業曾經因其旨在顛覆世界的激進想法而崛起，但現在它似乎滿足於尋求監管批准和機構採用。

Don't just take my word for it; look at what Vitalik wrote in his 2023 blog post about "bringing Ethereum back to its cyberpunk spirit":

不要只相信我的話；看看 Vitalik 在 2023 年的部落格文章中寫的關於「讓以太坊回歸賽博龐克精神」的內容：

"Our purpose is not just to develop isolated tools and games, but to holistically promote a freer and more open society and economy, allowing technology, society, and economy to integrate with each other."

“我們的目的不僅僅是開發孤立的工具和遊戲，而是整體推動更自由、更開放的社會和經濟，讓技術、社會和經濟相互融合。”

Think carefully: what innovations have emerged in this cycle?

仔細想想：這個週期出現了哪些創新？

AI×Crypto can be considered one.

AI×加密貨幣可以被認為是其中之一。

But AI is an external innovation; without it, this cycle might still be stuck in the hype of meme coins.

但人工智慧是一種外部創新；如果沒有它，這個週期可能仍會陷入迷因幣的炒作之中。

Personally, I do not like meme coins because their only real goal is to get rich quickly, rather than truly changing the world. The purpose of these projects is merely to make you rich enough so that you no longer care about the problems of the outside world.

就我個人而言，我不喜歡迷因幣，因為它們唯一的真正目標是快速致富，而不是真正改變世界。這些項目的目的只是讓你夠富有，這樣你就不再關心外界的問題。

Do you remember that phrase we often used in the last cycle?

您還記得上一周期我們常用的那句話嗎？

"[Project Name] is the most egalitarian thing we've seen, ambitious, and if successful, will truly change the social structure."

“[項目名稱]是我們見過的最平等的事情，雄心勃勃，如果成功，將真正改變社會結構。”

However, in contrast, in the last cycle we witnessed various radical innovations:

然而，相較之下，在上一個週期中我們見證了各種激進的創新：

Between 2020 and 2021, innovations in token economics also peaked, such as:

2020年至2021年間，代幣經濟的創新也達到頂峰，例如：

Current projects and VC supporters are more inclined to adopt time-tested simple token economic models, favoring robust operations, as they typically only have one opportunity for TGE.

目前的專案和 VC 支持者更傾向於採用經過時間考驗的簡單代幣經濟模型，有利於穩健的運營，因為他們通常只有一次 TGE 的機會。

$EIGEN (Subjective Objectivity Token) is a rare exception in the field of token economics.

$EIGEN（主觀客觀性代幣）是代幣經濟學領域中罕見的例外。

The ICO frenzy of 2017 can be said to be the peak of ambition, when various bold ideas attempted to decentralize everything. It was a bubble filled with imagination, many ideas were too crazy to realize, and most projects failed, forcing the surviving projects to dilute their visions.

2017年的ICO狂潮可以說是野心的頂峰，各種大膽的想法試圖去中心化一切。那是一個充滿想像的泡沫，許多想法太瘋狂而無法實現，大多數專案都失敗了，迫使倖存的專案淡化了他們的願景。

However, these wild concepts attracted a group of people yearning for a radically different world, including myself.

然而，這些瘋狂的概念吸引了一群嚮往完全不同世界的人，包括我自己。

I recently read "Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation" by B. Hobart and T. Huber, where they explain that transformative progress comes from small groups with a unified vision, well-funded yet almost unaccountable. They argue that although financial bubbles have a negative reputation, many breakthroughs in the past benefited from them, and future progress will also be driven by this.

我最近讀了B. Hobart 和T. Huber 所著的《繁榮：泡沫與停滯的終結》，他們在書中解釋說，變革性的進步來自於擁有統一願景、資金充足但幾乎不負責任的小團體。他們認為，儘管金融泡沫聲名狼藉，但過去的許多突破都從中受益，未來的進步也將由此推動。

While we have not completely bid farewell to the era of "lack of accountability," with increased regulation, the industry's risk aversion is rising, which may be the last bubble cycle capable of bringing about actual innovation. I hope that the bubble of AI combined with crypto can at least spawn one or two killer applications.

雖然我們還沒有完全告別「問責缺失」的時代，但隨著監管的加強，產業的避險情緒正在上升，這可能是最後一個能夠帶來實際創新的泡沫週期。我希望人工智慧與加密技術結合的泡沫至少能夠催生一兩個殺手級應用程式。

It's not to say that there are no ambitious crypto projects today; here are some worth watching:

這並不是說現在沒有雄心勃勃的加密貨幣項目；而是說現在沒有雄心勃勃的加密貨幣項目。以下是一些值得關注的內容：

You might think that WorldCoin's eye scan is too radical, or that Liquity v2 and its stablecoin named $BOLD cannot succeed. But these are precisely the risks that ambitious protocols are willing to take. They are the most egalitarian things we've seen, ambitious, and if successful, will truly change the structural foundations of society.

你可能會認為 WorldCoin 的目光掃描過於激進，或者 Liquity v2 及其名為 $BOLD 的穩定幣無法成功。但這些正是雄心勃勃的協議願意承擔的風險。它們是我們所見過的最平等的事物，雄心勃勃，如果成功，將真正改變社會的結構基礎。

Ethereum is notably absent from this list; perhaps I am being a bit harsh on ETH, but Vitalik's cyberpunk vision is hardly felt on Twitter. The upcoming fork will have some very minor updates, at least users won't notice. It will abandon sharding technology and L1 scaling, and the best part we've recently thought of is a slight increase in the gas limit of blocks.

值得注意的是，以太坊並未出現在這份名單中。也許我對 ETH 有點苛刻，但 Vitalik 的賽博龐克願景在 Twitter 上幾乎感受不到。即將到來的分叉將會有一些非常小的更新，至少用戶不會注意到。它將放棄分片技術和 L1 擴展，我們最近想到的最好的部分是區塊的 Gas 限制略有增加。

Ethereum seems to have outsourced both execution and ambition to L2.

以太坊似乎已經將執行力和野心都外包給了 L2。

The North Star of ETH is still not visible. I hope to see Ethereum greatness again and hope for the emergence of radical new ideas. However, currently, Ethereum seems to have accepted the viewpoint that modular blockchains cannot scale, while Solana has chosen a completely different path, sticking to a single-chain model,

ETH 的北極星仍然不可見。我希望再次看到以太坊的偉大，並希望出現激進的新想法。然而，目前以太坊似乎已經接受了模組化區塊鏈無法擴容的觀點，而Solana則選擇了完全不同的道路，堅持單鏈模型，