在总统的猜测下，加密货币市场有望在 2024 年激增

即将到来的 2024 年美国总统大选预计将对加密货币市场产生重大影响，专家预测，由经济刺激措施、监管转变和比特币减半周期推动的潜在比特币超级周期。分析师引用了选举结果和积极的市场表现之间的历史相关性，特别是对于共和党总统而言，而候选人对加密货币监管的立场各不相同。能源政策和 ETF 推动的动态可能会进一步影响比特币的走势。尽管存在潜在的市场不确定性，但乐观的投资者仍然对比特币的长期增长持乐观态度，预计到 2025 年价格将超过 20 万美元。

Cryptocurrency Markets Brace for Potential Surge in 2024 Amid Presidential Election Speculation

在总统选举猜测中，加密货币市场将在 2024 年迎来潜在的飙升

As the world's largest democracy prepares for its quadrennial presidential election, the cryptocurrency market stands poised at the precipice of a transformative year. With an array of potential catalysts on the horizon, analysts and investors are scrutinizing the interplay between the election cycle and the meteoric rise of Bitcoin (BTC).

随着世界上最大的民主国家为其四年一度的总统选举做准备，加密货币市场正处于变革之年的悬崖边。随着一系列潜在催化剂的出现，分析师和投资者正在仔细研究选举周期与比特币（BTC）迅速崛起之间的相互作用。

Presidential Influence on Bitcoin Regulation

总统对比特币监管的影响

The outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election holds significant implications for the regulatory landscape of cryptocurrencies. With nearly half of young voters expressing interest in candidates' crypto policies, the incoming administration's stance on digital assets could significantly impact market dynamics.

2024 年美国总统选举的结果对加密货币的监管格局具有重大影响。由于近一半的年轻选民对候选人的加密货币政策表示兴趣，即将上任的政府对数字资产的立场可能会对市场动态产生重大影响。

Anthony Georgiades, a general partner at Innovating Capital, acknowledges the potential influence of U.S. policy shifts on Bitcoin but highlights its inherent resilience as an asset class that transcends geographical boundaries and serves as a hedge against economic instability.

Innovating Capital 普通合伙人 Anthony Georgiades 承认美国政策转变对比特币的潜在影响，但强调其作为一种超越地理边界的资产类别固有的弹性，可作为对冲经济不稳定的工具。

Leading Candidates' Stances on Crypto

主要候选人对加密货币的立场

• President Joe Biden: Has expressed openness to exploring digital assets, including the possibility of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) and the taxation of Bitcoin mining.
• Former President Donald Trump: Initially dismissed Bitcoin as a "scam" but has since released his own collection of digital trading cards, earning him a significant following among crypto-oriented voters.
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.): Has pledged to back the U.S. dollar with Bitcoin and is widely regarded as the most pro-crypto candidate in the race.

Historical Correlation between Elections and Market Performance

总统乔·拜登：已表示对探索数字资产持开放态度，包括央行数字货币（CBDC）的可能性和对比特币挖矿征税。前总统唐纳德·特朗普：最初将比特币视为“骗局”，但此后发布了自己的观点小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪 (RFK Jr.)：曾承诺用比特币支持美元，并被广泛认为是最支持加密货币的候选人选举与市场表现之间的历史相关性

Market analysts have identified a compelling historical correlation between presidential elections and the performance of the S&P 500 stock index. Since the index's inception, 19 out of 23 elections have triggered a positive market response, suggesting that political transitions often coincide with economic growth.

市场分析师发现，总统选举与标准普尔 500 指数表现之间存在着令人信服的历史相关性。自该指数推出以来，23 次选举中有 19 次引发了积极的市场反应，这表明政治转型往往与经济增长同时发生。

Furthermore, Republican presidencies have historically yielded an average market return of 15.3%, while Democratic presidencies have returned a more modest 7.6%.

此外，历史上共和党总统任期的平均市场回报率为 15.3%，而民主党总统任期的平均市场回报率为 7.6%。

Bitcoin's Unique Resilience and Bullish Momentum

比特币独特的弹性和看涨势头

Despite the potential influence of the election, Bitcoin exhibits a remarkable resilience, due in part to its decentralized nature and its increasing adoption as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.

尽管存在选举的潜在影响，但比特币仍表现出显着的弹性，部分原因在于其去中心化性质以及越来越多地被采用作为对冲通胀和地缘政治不确定性的工具。

Historical data indicates that Bitcoin and Ethereum have typically performed well during the second quarter of the year, regardless of election cycles. Notably, Bitcoin has experienced positive price action in 64% of its April months, while Ethereum has enjoyed a 90% success rate in the first month of Q2.

历史数据表明，无论选举周期如何，比特币和以太坊通常在今年第二季度表现良好。值得注意的是，比特币在 4 月份的 64% 的时间里经历了积极的价格走势，而以太坊在第二季度第一个月的成功率达到了 90%。

The Halving Event and the Supercycle Theory

减半事件和超级周期理论

The upcoming Bitcoin Halving Event, scheduled for April 20, 2024, is another major catalyst that could ignite a bull run. This event, which occurs approximately every four years, involves a 50% reduction in the Bitcoin block reward, effectively decreasing the supply of new coins entering the market.

即将于 2024 年 4 月 20 日举行的比特币减半事件是可能引发牛市的另一个主要催化剂。这一事件大约每四年发生一次，涉及比特币区块奖励减少 50%，从而有效减少进入市场的新硬币的供应。

Analysts speculate that the Halving Event, combined with the favorable market conditions expected in the lead-up to the election, could propel Bitcoin into a "supercycle" characterized by sustained price appreciation.

分析师推测，减半事件，加上大选前预期的有利市场条件，可能会推动比特币进入一个以价格持续升值为特征的“超级周期”。

Energy Policies and Mining Profitability

能源政策和矿业盈利能力

Kerel Verwaerde, CMO of Cryptology.com, emphasizes the potential impact of presidential hopefuls' energy policies on Bitcoin mining profitability. Cheaper energy costs would translate into higher profits for miners, potentially reducing sell-pressure on the market.

Cryptology.com 首席营销官 Kerel Verwaerde 强调了总统候选人的能源政策对比特币挖矿盈利能力的潜在影响。更便宜的能源成本将为矿商带来更高的利润，从而可能减少市场上的抛售压力。

Bitcoin's Trajectory Beyond Presidential Influence

比特币的发展轨迹超出了总统的影响力

While the upcoming election undoubtedly exerts some influence on the cryptocurrency market, experts believe that Bitcoin's long-term trajectory is ultimately driven by broader economic factors, such as interest rates, and intrinsic market dynamics surrounding the Halving Event.

虽然即将到来的选举无疑会对加密货币市场产生一些影响，但专家认为，比特币的长期轨迹最终是由更广泛的经济因素驱动的，例如利率和围绕减半事件的内在市场动态。

Bullish Predictions and High Hopes for 2024

对 2024 年的乐观预测和厚望

Despite the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market, many investors remain optimistic about Bitcoin's performance in 2024. Even if the crypto market experiences a temporary downturn, respected figures like Bitwise CEO Matt Hougan believe that BTC has the potential to reach $200,000 by 2025.

尽管加密货币市场存在固有的波动性，但许多投资者仍然对比特币在 2024 年的表现保持乐观。即使加密货币市场经历暂时的低迷，Bitwise 首席执行官马特·霍根 (Matt Hougan) 等德高望重的人物也认为，到 2025 年，比特币有潜力达到 20 万美元。

Conclusion

结论

As 2024 unfolds, the cryptocurrency market stands on the cusp of an extraordinary year. While the outcome of the presidential election will undoubtedly have some impact, Bitcoin's long-term success hinges on the interplay of broader economic forces, the Halving Event, and the inherent resilience of the asset class. Investors and analysts alike are eagerly anticipating the year ahead, brimming with optimism and the hope of witnessing the realization of Bitcoin's supercycle.

随着 2024 年的到来，加密货币市场正处于不平凡的一年的风口浪尖。虽然总统选举的结果无疑会产生一些影响，但比特币的长期成功取决于更广泛的经济力量、减半事件以及资产类别固有的弹性的相互作用。投资者和分析师都对未来的一年充满乐观，并希望见证比特币超级周期的实现。