在總統的猜測下，加密貨幣市場預計在 2024 年激增

即將到來的 2024 年美國總統大選預計將對加密貨幣市場產生重大影響，專家預測，由經濟刺激措施、監管轉變和比特幣減半週期推動的潛在比特幣超級週期。分析師引用了選舉結果和積極的市場表現之間的歷史相關性，特別是對於共和黨總統而言，而候選人對加密貨幣監管的立場各不相同。能源政策和 ETF 推動的動態可能會進一步影響比特幣的趨勢。儘管存在潛在的市場不確定性，但樂觀的投資者仍然對比特幣的長期成長持樂觀態度，預計到 2025 年價格將超過 20 萬美元。

Cryptocurrency Markets Brace for Potential Surge in 2024 Amid Presidential Election Speculation

在總統選舉猜測中，加密貨幣市場將在 2024 年迎來潛在的飆升

As the world's largest democracy prepares for its quadrennial presidential election, the cryptocurrency market stands poised at the precipice of a transformative year. With an array of potential catalysts on the horizon, analysts and investors are scrutinizing the interplay between the election cycle and the meteoric rise of Bitcoin (BTC).

隨著世界上最大的民主國家為其四年一度的總統選舉做準備，加密貨幣市場正處於變革之年的懸崖邊。隨著一系列潛在催化劑的出現，分析師和投資者正在仔細研究選舉週期與比特幣（BTC）迅速崛起之間的相互作用。

Presidential Influence on Bitcoin Regulation

總統對比特幣監管的影響

The outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election holds significant implications for the regulatory landscape of cryptocurrencies. With nearly half of young voters expressing interest in candidates' crypto policies, the incoming administration's stance on digital assets could significantly impact market dynamics.

2024 年美國總統大選的結果對加密貨幣的監管格局有重大影響。由於近一半的年輕選民對候選人的加密貨幣政策表示興趣，即將上任的政府對數位資產的立場可能會對市場動態產生重大影響。

Anthony Georgiades, a general partner at Innovating Capital, acknowledges the potential influence of U.S. policy shifts on Bitcoin but highlights its inherent resilience as an asset class that transcends geographical boundaries and serves as a hedge against economic instability.

Innovating Capital 普通合夥人 Anthony Georgiades 承認美國政策轉變對比特幣的潛在影響，但強調其作為一種超越地理邊界的資產類別固有的彈性，可作為對沖經濟不穩定的工具。

Leading Candidates' Stances on Crypto

主要候選人對加密貨幣的立場

• President Joe Biden: Has expressed openness to exploring digital assets, including the possibility of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) and the taxation of Bitcoin mining.
• Former President Donald Trump: Initially dismissed Bitcoin as a "scam" but has since released his own collection of digital trading cards, earning him a significant following among crypto-oriented voters.
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.): Has pledged to back the U.S. dollar with Bitcoin and is widely regarded as the most pro-crypto candidate in the race.

Historical Correlation between Elections and Market Performance

總統喬·拜登：已表示對探索數位資產持開放態度，包括央行數位貨幣（CBDC）的可能性和對比特幣挖礦徵稅。前總統唐納德·川普：最初將比特幣視為“騙局”，但此後發布了自己的觀點小羅伯特·F·肯尼迪 (RFK Jr.)：曾承諾用比特幣支持美元，並被廣泛認為是最支持加密貨幣的候選人選舉與市場表現之間的歷史相關性

Market analysts have identified a compelling historical correlation between presidential elections and the performance of the S&P 500 stock index. Since the index's inception, 19 out of 23 elections have triggered a positive market response, suggesting that political transitions often coincide with economic growth.

市場分析師發現，總統選舉與標準普爾 500 指數表現之間存在著令人信服的歷史相關性。自從該指數推出以來，23 次選舉中有 19 次引發了積極的市場反應，這表明政治轉型往往與經濟成長同時發生。

Furthermore, Republican presidencies have historically yielded an average market return of 15.3%, while Democratic presidencies have returned a more modest 7.6%.

此外，歷史上共和黨總統任期的平均市場回報率為 15.3%，而民主黨總統任期的平均市場回報率為 7.6%。

Bitcoin's Unique Resilience and Bullish Momentum

比特幣獨特的彈性和看漲勢頭

Despite the potential influence of the election, Bitcoin exhibits a remarkable resilience, due in part to its decentralized nature and its increasing adoption as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.

儘管存在選舉的潛在影響，比特幣仍表現出顯著的彈性，部分原因在於其去中心化性質以及越來越多地被採用作為對沖通膨和地緣政治不確定性的工具。

Historical data indicates that Bitcoin and Ethereum have typically performed well during the second quarter of the year, regardless of election cycles. Notably, Bitcoin has experienced positive price action in 64% of its April months, while Ethereum has enjoyed a 90% success rate in the first month of Q2.

歷史數據表明，無論選舉週期如何，比特幣和以太坊通常在今年第二季表現良好。值得注意的是，比特幣在 4 月的 64% 的時間裡經歷了積極的價格走勢，而以太坊在第二季度第一個月的成功率達到了 90%。

The Halving Event and the Supercycle Theory

減半事件和超級週期理論

The upcoming Bitcoin Halving Event, scheduled for April 20, 2024, is another major catalyst that could ignite a bull run. This event, which occurs approximately every four years, involves a 50% reduction in the Bitcoin block reward, effectively decreasing the supply of new coins entering the market.

即將於 2024 年 4 月 20 日舉行的比特幣減半事件是可能引發多頭市場的另一個主要催化劑。這一事件大約每四年發生一次，涉及比特幣區塊獎勵減少 50%，從而有效減少進入市場的新硬幣的供應。

Analysts speculate that the Halving Event, combined with the favorable market conditions expected in the lead-up to the election, could propel Bitcoin into a "supercycle" characterized by sustained price appreciation.

分析師推測，減半事件，加上大選前預期的有利市場條件，可能會推動比特幣進入一個以價格持續升值為特徵的「超級週期」。

Energy Policies and Mining Profitability

能源政策和礦業獲利能力

Kerel Verwaerde, CMO of Cryptology.com, emphasizes the potential impact of presidential hopefuls' energy policies on Bitcoin mining profitability. Cheaper energy costs would translate into higher profits for miners, potentially reducing sell-pressure on the market.

Cryptology.com 行銷長 Kerel Verwaerde 強調了總統候選人的能源政策對比特幣挖礦獲利能力的潛在影響。更便宜的能源成本將為礦商帶來更高的利潤，這可能會減少市場上的拋售壓力。

Bitcoin's Trajectory Beyond Presidential Influence

比特幣的發展軌跡超越了總統的影響力

While the upcoming election undoubtedly exerts some influence on the cryptocurrency market, experts believe that Bitcoin's long-term trajectory is ultimately driven by broader economic factors, such as interest rates, and intrinsic market dynamics surrounding the Halving Event.

雖然即將到來的選舉無疑會對加密貨幣市場產生一些影響，但專家認為，比特幣的長期軌跡最終是由更廣泛的經濟因素驅動的，例如利率和圍繞減半事件的內在市場動態。

Bullish Predictions and High Hopes for 2024

對 2024 年的樂觀預測與厚望

Despite the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market, many investors remain optimistic about Bitcoin's performance in 2024. Even if the crypto market experiences a temporary downturn, respected figures like Bitwise CEO Matt Hougan believe that BTC has the potential to reach $200,000 by 2025.

儘管加密貨幣市場存在固有的波動性，但許多投資者仍然對比特幣在2024 年的表現保持樂觀。即使加密貨幣市場經歷暫時的低迷，Bitwise 首席執行官馬特·霍根(Matt Hougan) 等德高望重的人物也認為，到2025 年，比特幣有潛力達到20 萬美元。

Conclusion

結論

As 2024 unfolds, the cryptocurrency market stands on the cusp of an extraordinary year. While the outcome of the presidential election will undoubtedly have some impact, Bitcoin's long-term success hinges on the interplay of broader economic forces, the Halving Event, and the inherent resilience of the asset class. Investors and analysts alike are eagerly anticipating the year ahead, brimming with optimism and the hope of witnessing the realization of Bitcoin's supercycle.

隨著 2024 年的到來，加密貨幣市場正處於不平凡的一年的風口浪尖。雖然總統選舉的結果無疑會產生一些影響，但比特幣的長期成功取決於更廣泛的經濟力量、減半事件以及資產類別固有的彈性的相互作用。投資者和分析師都對未來的一年充滿樂觀，並希望見證比特幣超級週期的實現。