加密货币市场调整：在市场波动中保持看涨的原因

尽管最近市场出现调整，但分析师仍然看好数字资产，理由有几个。比特币减半可能会提供支撑，因为历史上它先于价格上涨。现货交易所交易基金（ETF）可以将比特币介绍给更广泛的受众，从而可能刺激需求。虽然宏观动荡可能会暂时影响加密资产，但其他叙述和不断增长的采用应该会提供支持。杠杆消除减少了过度杠杆，创造了一个更健康的市场。目前的下跌处于典型牛市回调的范围内，表明市场并未过度扩张。对长期 BTC 和 ETH 看涨期权的持续需求表明市场参与者预计未来价格会上涨。

Crypto Correction: Reasons to Stay Bullish Despite Market Turmoil

加密货币修正：尽管市场动荡但仍保持看涨的原因

The recent cryptocurrency market correction has sent investor sentiment plummeting, but analysts maintain that there are compelling reasons to remain optimistic about digital assets.

最近的加密货币市场调整导致投资者情绪暴跌，但分析师认为，有充分理由对数字资产保持乐观。

Bitcoin Halving and Spot ETFs

比特币减半和现货 ETF

One significant event on the horizon is the upcoming Bitcoin halving, a recurring occurrence approximately every four years that reduces the supply of newly issued tokens by half. While historical price movements around halvings have been mixed, it often precedes periods of substantial growth.

即将到来的一个重大事件是即将到来的比特币减半，大约每四年发生一次，使新发行的代币供应量减少一半。虽然减半前后的历史价格走势好坏参半，但它通常先于大幅增长时期。

Joel Kruger, a market strategist at LMAX Group, believes that the halving will not result in immediate upward momentum but acknowledges the potential for a rally due to the broader adoption of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

LMAX Group 市场策略师 Joel Kruger 认为，减半不会立即带来上涨动力，但承认由于比特币现货交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的广泛采用，有可能出现反弹。

With traditional finance giants like BlackRock and Fidelity ramping up their sales efforts to introduce Bitcoin to a wider investor base, Kruger anticipates increased excitement and demand for the asset. Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, recently observed BlackRock advertising its Bitcoin fund on Bloomberg's homepage.

随着贝莱德和富达等传统金融巨头加大销售力度，将比特币介绍给更广泛的投资者群体，克鲁格预计该资产的兴奋度和需求将会增加。彭博资讯 (Bloomberg Intelligence) 的高级 ETF 分析师埃里克·巴尔丘纳斯 (Eric Balchunas) 最近观察到贝莱德在彭博社主页上为其比特币基金做广告。

Macroeconomic Volatility and Crypto Resilience

宏观经济波动和加密货币弹性

The market correction was primarily triggered by macroeconomic events, including geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, rising bond yields, and a stronger U.S. dollar. These factors have weighed on traditional markets and raised concerns about the trajectory of the stock market.

市场调整主要是由宏观经济事件引发的，包括以色列和伊朗之间的地缘政治紧张局势、债券收益率上升以及美元走强。这些因素给传统市场带来了压力，并引发了人们对股市走势的担忧。

Noelle Acheson, a macro analyst and author of the "Crypto Is Macro Now" newsletter, warns that the earnings yield on the S&P 500 has fallen below that of both 3-month and 10-year U.S. Treasuries, indicating potential downside for U.S. equities. While this could temporarily affect crypto assets, Acheson believes that long-term narratives such as store of value, currency hedge, and growing adoption will encourage accumulation at lower levels.

宏观分析师、《加密货币现在是宏观》时事通讯的作者诺埃尔·艾奇逊 (Noelle Acheson) 警告称，标准普尔 500 指数的收益率已低于 3 个月期和 10 年期美国国债的收益率，这表明美国股市存在潜在下行风险。虽然这可能会暂时影响加密资产，但艾奇逊认为，价值储存、货币对冲和日益普及等长期叙述将鼓励较低水平的积累。

Leverage Wipe-Out and Market Cleansing

杠杆消除和市场清理

Massive liquidation events on derivatives markets, where over $1.5 billion of bullish bets were liquidated last weekend, often mark the bottom for asset prices. Vetle Lunde, a senior market analyst at K33 Research, views this as a cleansing process that reduces excessive leverage and sets the stage for a healthier market.

衍生品市场上的大规模清算事件（上周末超过 15 亿美元的看涨押注被清算）通常标志着资产价格的底部。 K33 Research 的高级市场分析师 Vetle Lunde 认为这是一个清理过程，可以减少过度杠杆并为更健康的市场奠定基础。

Combined with Bitcoin's resilience above $60,000, Lunde believes these events resemble the market action of August 2021, when BTC fell sharply but later rebounded to much higher prices.

结合比特币在 60,000 美元以上的弹性，伦德认为这些事件类似于 2021 年 8 月的市场走势，当时比特币大幅下跌，但后来反弹至更高的价格。

Historical Pullbacks and Market Maturity

历史回调和市场成熟度

Bitcoin's current pullback of 16% from its recent all-time high is within the range of typical drawdowns observed in previous bull markets. The 2016-2017 and 2020-2021 cycles both featured multiple 20%-30% pullbacks before continuing their upward trajectories.

比特币目前较近期历史高点回落 16%，处于之前牛市中观察到的典型回撤范围内。 2016-2017 年和 2020-2021 年周期均经历了多次 20%-30% 的回调，然后才继续上涨。

Crypto analysts emphasize that such corrections are normal in bull markets and should not discourage long-term investors.

加密货币分析师强调，这种调整在牛市中是正常的，不应让长期投资者望而却步。

Hedge Fund Demand and Market Sentiment

对冲基金需求和市场情绪

Despite the recent market volatility, hedge fund QCP Capital continues to report consistent demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum calls with longer-term expiries extending to March 2025. This indicates that market participants anticipate higher prices in the future, underscoring the ongoing bullish sentiment.

尽管近期市场波动，对冲基金 QCP Capital 继续报告称，对比特币和以太坊看涨期权的需求持续稳定，长期到期期限延长至 2025 年 3 月。这表明市场参与者预计未来价格将会上涨，凸显了持续的看涨情绪。

In conclusion, while the crypto market correction has certainly tested investor sentiment, there are several factors that support the argument for remaining optimistic about digital assets. The Bitcoin halving, spot ETFs, macroeconomic resilience, leverage wipe-out, historical pullbacks, and hedge fund demand all point to reasons to believe that the current correction may be a temporary setback in a long-term uptrend.

总之，虽然加密货币市场的调整无疑考验了投资者的情绪，但有几个因素支持对数字资产保持乐观的论点。比特币减半、现货ETF、宏观经济弹性、杠杆消除、历史回调和对冲基金需求都表明，有理由相信当前的调整可能是长期上升趋势中的暂时挫折。