加密貨幣市場調整：在市場波動中保持看漲的原因

儘管最近市場出現調整，但分析師仍然看好數位資產，理由有幾個。比特幣減半可能會提供支撐，因為歷史上它先於價格上漲。現貨交易所交易基金（ETF）可以將比特幣介紹給更廣泛的受眾，從而可能刺激需求。雖然宏觀動盪可能會暫時影響加密資產，但其他敘述和不斷增長的採用應該會提供支援。槓桿消除減少了過度槓桿，創造了一個更健康的市場。目前的下跌處於典型牛市回檔的範圍內，顯示市場並未過度擴張。對長期 BTC 和 ETH 看漲期權的持續需求表明市場參與者預計未來價格會上漲。

Crypto Correction: Reasons to Stay Bullish Despite Market Turmoil

加密貨幣修正：儘管市場動盪但仍維持看漲的原因

The recent cryptocurrency market correction has sent investor sentiment plummeting, but analysts maintain that there are compelling reasons to remain optimistic about digital assets.

最近的加密貨幣市場調整導致投資者情緒暴跌，但分析師認為，有充分理由對數位資產保持樂觀。

Bitcoin Halving and Spot ETFs

比特幣減半和現貨 ETF

One significant event on the horizon is the upcoming Bitcoin halving, a recurring occurrence approximately every four years that reduces the supply of newly issued tokens by half. While historical price movements around halvings have been mixed, it often precedes periods of substantial growth.

即將到來的一個重大事件是即將到來的比特幣減半，大約每四年發生一次，使新發行的代幣供應量減少一半。雖然減半前後的歷史價格走勢好壞參半，但它通常先於大幅成長時期。

Joel Kruger, a market strategist at LMAX Group, believes that the halving will not result in immediate upward momentum but acknowledges the potential for a rally due to the broader adoption of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

LMAX Group 市場策略師 Joel Kruger 認為，減半不會立即帶來上漲動力，但承認由於比特幣現貨交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的廣泛採用，有可能出現反彈。

With traditional finance giants like BlackRock and Fidelity ramping up their sales efforts to introduce Bitcoin to a wider investor base, Kruger anticipates increased excitement and demand for the asset. Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, recently observed BlackRock advertising its Bitcoin fund on Bloomberg's homepage.

隨著貝萊德和富達等傳統金融巨頭加強銷售力度，將比特幣介紹給更廣泛的投資者群體，克魯格預計該資產的興奮度和需求將會增加。彭博資訊 (Bloomberg Intelligence) 的高級 ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 最近觀察到貝萊德在彭博社主頁上為其比特幣基金做廣告。

Macroeconomic Volatility and Crypto Resilience

宏觀經濟波動與加密貨幣彈性

The market correction was primarily triggered by macroeconomic events, including geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, rising bond yields, and a stronger U.S. dollar. These factors have weighed on traditional markets and raised concerns about the trajectory of the stock market.

市場調整主要是由宏觀經濟事件引發的，包括以色列和伊朗之間的地緣政治緊張局勢、債券殖利率上升、美元走強。這些因素給傳統市場帶來了壓力，並引發了人們對股市趨勢的擔憂。

Noelle Acheson, a macro analyst and author of the "Crypto Is Macro Now" newsletter, warns that the earnings yield on the S&P 500 has fallen below that of both 3-month and 10-year U.S. Treasuries, indicating potential downside for U.S. equities. While this could temporarily affect crypto assets, Acheson believes that long-term narratives such as store of value, currency hedge, and growing adoption will encourage accumulation at lower levels.

宏觀分析師、《加密貨幣現在是宏觀》時事通訊的作者諾埃爾·艾奇遜(Noelle Acheson) 警告稱，標準普爾500 指數的收益率已低於3 個月期和10 年期美國國債的殖利率，顯示美國股市存在潛在下行風險。雖然這可能會暫時影響加密資產，但艾奇遜認為，價值儲存、貨幣對沖和日益普及等長期敘事將鼓勵較低的累積。

Leverage Wipe-Out and Market Cleansing

槓桿消除和市場清理

Massive liquidation events on derivatives markets, where over $1.5 billion of bullish bets were liquidated last weekend, often mark the bottom for asset prices. Vetle Lunde, a senior market analyst at K33 Research, views this as a cleansing process that reduces excessive leverage and sets the stage for a healthier market.

衍生性商品市場上的大規模清算事件（上週末超過 15 億美元的看漲押注被清算）通常標誌著資產價格的底部。 K33 Research 的高級市場分析師 Vetle Lunde 認為這是一個清理過程，可以減少過度槓桿並為更健康的市場奠定基礎。

Combined with Bitcoin's resilience above $60,000, Lunde believes these events resemble the market action of August 2021, when BTC fell sharply but later rebounded to much higher prices.

結合比特幣在 6 萬美元以上的彈性，倫德認為這些事件類似於 2021 年 8 月的市場走勢，當時比特幣大幅下跌，但後來反彈至更高的價格。

Historical Pullbacks and Market Maturity

歷史回檔與市場成熟度

Bitcoin's current pullback of 16% from its recent all-time high is within the range of typical drawdowns observed in previous bull markets. The 2016-2017 and 2020-2021 cycles both featured multiple 20%-30% pullbacks before continuing their upward trajectories.

比特幣目前較近期歷史高點回落 16%，處於先前牛市中觀察到的典型回撤範圍內。 2016-2017 年和 2020-2021 年週期都經歷了多次 20%-30% 的回調，然後才繼續上漲。

Crypto analysts emphasize that such corrections are normal in bull markets and should not discourage long-term investors.

加密貨幣分析師強調，這種調整在多頭市場中是正常的，不應讓長期投資者望而卻步。

Hedge Fund Demand and Market Sentiment

對沖基金需求和市場情緒

Despite the recent market volatility, hedge fund QCP Capital continues to report consistent demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum calls with longer-term expiries extending to March 2025. This indicates that market participants anticipate higher prices in the future, underscoring the ongoing bullish sentiment.

儘管近期市場波動，對沖基金QCP Capital 繼續報告稱，對比特幣和以太坊看漲期權的需求持續穩定，長期到期期限延長至2025 年3 月。了持續的看漲情緒。

In conclusion, while the crypto market correction has certainly tested investor sentiment, there are several factors that support the argument for remaining optimistic about digital assets. The Bitcoin halving, spot ETFs, macroeconomic resilience, leverage wipe-out, historical pullbacks, and hedge fund demand all point to reasons to believe that the current correction may be a temporary setback in a long-term uptrend.

總之，雖然加密貨幣市場的調整無疑考驗了投資人的情緒，但有幾個因素支持對數位資產保持樂觀的論點。比特幣減半、現貨ETF、宏觀經濟彈性、槓桿消除、歷史回調和對沖基金需求都表明，有理由相信當前的調整可能是長期上升趨勢中的暫時挫折。