加密货币拐点正在等待：2025 年的 3 个预测可以帮助激发它

您正在阅读《加密多空》，这是我们为专业投资者提供的每周时事通讯，其中包含见解、新闻和分析。

2024 was a breakout year for crypto with the launch of BTC and ETH ETFs, BlackRock spearheading bitcoin adoption, a pro-crypto president getting elected and BTC breaking its 15-year all-time-high, among other events. But the inflection point for crypto is yet to come. Here are three predictions for 2025 that could help spark it:

2024 年是加密货币领域突破的一年，推出了 BTC 和 ETH ETF、贝莱德 (BlackRock) 率先采用比特币、支持加密货币的总统当选以及 BTC 突破 15 年来的历史新高等等。但加密货币的拐点尚未到来。以下是 2025 年的三个预测，可能有助于激发这一趋势：

You're reading Crypto Long & Short, our weekly newsletter featuring insights, news and analysis for the professional investor. Sign up here to get it in your inbox every Wednesday.

您正在阅读《加密多空》，这是我们为专业投资者提供的每周时事通讯，其中包含见解、新闻和分析。在此注册，每周三将其发送到您的收件箱。

1. DeFi is about to skyrocket

1. DeFi即将暴涨

DeFi is getting more complex, much like traditional finance, in terms of its product suite. We’ve already seen this trend emerging with the adoption of products like Pendle, Ethena, EtherFi and Lombard. In 2025, DeFi usage will explode, with a wave of adoption for products such as options, swaps, and other derivatives like the interest rate swap market — the latter’s market size is at 465.9 trillion USD in TradFi.

就其产品套件而言，DeFi 正变得越来越复杂，就像传统金融一样。随着 Pendle、Ethena、EtherFi 和 Lombard 等产品的采用，我们已经看到了这一趋势的出现。到 2025 年，DeFi 的使用将呈爆炸式增长，期权、掉期和利率掉期市场等其他衍生品等产品将迎来一波采用浪潮——后者在 TradFi 中的市场规模为 465.9 万亿美元。

Moreover, new institutional players are entering the crypto ecosystem, nurturing a new category: On-chain finance. Participation is no longer limited to buying blue-chip cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH. These market participants also actively expand on-chain market depth by using tools such as lending markets and liquidity provision with RWA-backed digital assets, i.e. stablecoins. Securitize and BlackRock are great examples of companies pushing the frontier on this front.

此外，新的机构参与者正在进入加密生态系统，培育一个新的类别：链上金融。参与不再局限于购买 BTC 和 ETH 等蓝筹加密货币。这些市场参与者还通过使用借贷市场和由 RWA 支持的数字资产（即稳定币）提供流动性等工具，积极扩大链上市场深度。 Securitize 和 BlackRock 是推动这一领域前沿的公司的典范。

DeFi is almost back to its all-time-high. Source: https://defillama.com/

DeFi 几乎回到了历史最高点。来源：https://defillama.com/

2. Stablecoins will continue to grow as the crypto killer use case

2. 稳定币将作为加密杀手用例继续增长

Stablecoins aren’t just another crypto product; they’re set to become the digital backbone of the global financial system. Tether is the most profitable crypto company with a $5.2 billion profit in H1 2024, surpassing BlackRock.

稳定币不仅仅是另一种加密产品；它也是一种加密产品。它们将成为全球金融体系的数字支柱。 Tether 是最赚钱的加密货币公司，2024 年上半年利润达 52 亿美元，超过贝莱德。

The political landscape is shifting dramatically in favour of stablecoins, with Operation Choke Point 2.0 coming to an end. They are finally being viewed as a national asset that can strengthen the dominance of the U.S. dollar and address growing public debt. This shift also paves the way for major banks and payment companies like Visa and Mastercard to expand their efforts in the sector, especially when you consider Stripe’s acquisition of stablecoin platform Bridge for $1.1 billion (the biggest acquisition in crypto ever) and rumours of Revolut launching its stablecoin.

随着“瓶颈行动 2.0”即将结束，政治格局正在发生巨大变化，有利于稳定币。它们最终被视为一种国家资产，可以加强美元的主导地位并解决日益增长的公共债务问题。这一转变也为 Visa 和 Mastercard 等主要银行和支付公司扩大在该领域的努力铺平了道路，特别是考虑到 Stripe 以 11 亿美元收购稳定币平台 Bridge（有史以来加密货币领域最大的收购）以及 Revolut 推出的传言。它的稳定币。

Stablecoins market cap is at an all-time-high already at about $200 billion. Source: https://defillama.com/stablecoins

稳定币市值已创历史新高，约为 2000 亿美元。来源：https://defillama.com/stablecoins

3. The race for retail adoption

3. 零售采用竞赛

ETFs will be key drivers for new capital to enter crypto. BTC ETFs are here, and soon we’ll see the success of Ethereum ETFs. After SOL’s undeniable growth over the last year, the SOL ETF will either catch the momentum and become a reality in the first half of 2025 or will delay until 2026 or later.

ETF 将成为新资本进入加密货币的关键驱动力。 BTC ETF 已经出现，很快我们就会看到以太坊 ETF 的成功。在 SOL 去年取得不可否认的增长之后，SOL ETF 要么会抓住这一势头并在 2025 年上半年成为现实，要么会推迟到 2026 年或更晚。

We’ll also see major Web3 social platforms compete with the LensChain mainnet launch and Farcaster’s further expansion. As the pie grows bigger, we can end up with the "Twitter/X and Facebook of crypto" platforms.

我们还将看到主要的 Web3 社交平台与 LensChain 主网的推出和 Farcaster 的进一步扩张展开竞争。随着蛋糕越来越大，我们最终可以得到“加密货币领域的 Twitter/X 和 Facebook”平台。

Finally, “Super Wallets” took off in Q4 2024. They aim to offer a comprehensive alternative to centralized exchanges for new users. The leading players are Infinex, launched by Kain Warwick, and DeFiApp, launched by seasoned builders in DeFi. Both are working on UX problems, something we have never done very well as an industry.

最后，“超级钱包”于 2024 年第四季度起飞。他们的目标是为新用户提供中心化交易所的全面替代方案。领先的参与者是 Kain Warwick 推出的 Infinex 和由经验丰富的 DeFi 构建者推出的 DeFiApp。两者都致力于解决用户体验问题，这是我们行业从未做得很好的事情。

Bonus prediction: MiCA will power crypto expansion in Europe

额外预测：MiCA 将推动加密货币在欧洲的扩张

Crypto regulations provide the foundations for new projects. They lay the groundwork for clear rules and guidelines of organizational structure. MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation) attempts to bring just that with an aim to increase the importance of EUR-related assets. This could potentially bridge crypto innovation between the U.S. and Europe.

加密货币法规为新项目奠定了基础。它们为组织结构的明确规则和指导方针奠定了基础。 MiCA（加密资产市场监管）试图实现这一目标，旨在提高欧元相关资产的重要性。这可能会在美国和欧洲之间架起加密货币创新的桥梁。