加密貨幣拐點正在等待：2025 年的 3 個預測可以幫助激發拐點

您正在閱讀《加密多空》，這是我們為專業投資者提供的每週通訊，其中包含見解、新聞和分析。

2024 was a breakout year for crypto with the launch of BTC and ETH ETFs, BlackRock spearheading bitcoin adoption, a pro-crypto president getting elected and BTC breaking its 15-year all-time-high, among other events. But the inflection point for crypto is yet to come. Here are three predictions for 2025 that could help spark it:

2024 年是加密貨幣領域突破的一年，推出了 BTC 和 ETH ETF、貝萊德 (BlackRock) 率先採用比特幣、支持加密貨幣的總統當選以及 BTC 突破 15 年來的歷史新高等等。但加密貨幣的轉折點尚未到來。以下是 2025 年的三個預測，可能有助於激發這一趨勢：

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您正在閱讀《加密多空》，這是我們為專業投資者提供的每週通訊，其中包含見解、新聞和分析。在此註冊，每週三將其發送到您的收件匣。

1. DeFi is about to skyrocket

1. DeFi即將暴漲

DeFi is getting more complex, much like traditional finance, in terms of its product suite. We’ve already seen this trend emerging with the adoption of products like Pendle, Ethena, EtherFi and Lombard. In 2025, DeFi usage will explode, with a wave of adoption for products such as options, swaps, and other derivatives like the interest rate swap market — the latter’s market size is at 465.9 trillion USD in TradFi.

就其產品套件而言，DeFi 變得越來越複雜，就像傳統金融一樣。隨著 Pendle、Ethena、EtherFi 和 Lombard 等產品的採用，我們已經看到了這一趨勢的出現。到2025 年，DeFi 的使用將爆炸性成長，選擇權、掉期和利率掉期市場等其他衍生性商品等產品將迎來一波採用浪潮——後者在TradFi 中的市場規模為465.9 兆美元。

Moreover, new institutional players are entering the crypto ecosystem, nurturing a new category: On-chain finance. Participation is no longer limited to buying blue-chip cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH. These market participants also actively expand on-chain market depth by using tools such as lending markets and liquidity provision with RWA-backed digital assets, i.e. stablecoins. Securitize and BlackRock are great examples of companies pushing the frontier on this front.

此外，新的機構參與者正在進入加密生態系統，培育一個新的類別：鏈上金融。參與不再局限於購買 BTC 和 ETH 等藍籌加密貨幣。這些市場參與者還透過使用借貸市場和由 RWA 支持的數位資產（即穩定幣）提供流動性等工具，積極擴大鏈上市場深度。 Securitize 和 BlackRock 是推動這一領域前沿的公司的典範。

DeFi is almost back to its all-time-high. Source: https://defillama.com/

DeFi 幾乎回到了歷史最高點。資料來源：https://defillama.com/

2. Stablecoins will continue to grow as the crypto killer use case

2. 穩定幣將作為加密殺手用例繼續成長

Stablecoins aren’t just another crypto product; they’re set to become the digital backbone of the global financial system. Tether is the most profitable crypto company with a $5.2 billion profit in H1 2024, surpassing BlackRock.

穩定幣不僅僅是另一種加密產品；它也是一種加密產品。它們將成為全球金融體系的數位支柱。 Tether 是最賺錢的加密貨幣公司，2024 年上半年利潤達 52 億美元，超過貝萊德。

The political landscape is shifting dramatically in favour of stablecoins, with Operation Choke Point 2.0 coming to an end. They are finally being viewed as a national asset that can strengthen the dominance of the U.S. dollar and address growing public debt. This shift also paves the way for major banks and payment companies like Visa and Mastercard to expand their efforts in the sector, especially when you consider Stripe’s acquisition of stablecoin platform Bridge for $1.1 billion (the biggest acquisition in crypto ever) and rumours of Revolut launching its stablecoin.

隨著「瓶頸行動 2.0」即將結束，政治格局正在發生巨大變化，有利於穩定幣。它們最終被視為一種國家資產，可以加強美元的主導地位並解決日益增長的公共債務問題。這一轉變也為Visa 和Mastercard 等主要銀行和支付公司擴大在該領域的努力鋪平了道路，特別是考慮到Stripe 以11 億美元收購穩定幣平台Bridge（有史以來加密貨幣領域最大的收購）以及Revolut 推出的傳言。

Stablecoins market cap is at an all-time-high already at about $200 billion. Source: https://defillama.com/stablecoins

穩定幣市值已創歷史新高，約 2,000 億美元。資料來源：https://defillama.com/stablecoins

3. The race for retail adoption

3. 零售採用競賽

ETFs will be key drivers for new capital to enter crypto. BTC ETFs are here, and soon we’ll see the success of Ethereum ETFs. After SOL’s undeniable growth over the last year, the SOL ETF will either catch the momentum and become a reality in the first half of 2025 or will delay until 2026 or later.

ETF 將成為新資本進入加密貨幣的關鍵驅動力。 BTC ETF 已經出現，很快我們就會看到以太坊 ETF 的成功。在 SOL 去年取得不可否認的成長之後，SOL ETF 要么會抓住這一勢頭並在 2025 年上半年成為現實，要么會推遲到 2026 年或更晚。

We’ll also see major Web3 social platforms compete with the LensChain mainnet launch and Farcaster’s further expansion. As the pie grows bigger, we can end up with the "Twitter/X and Facebook of crypto" platforms.

我們還將看到主要的 Web3 社交平台與 LensChain 主網的推出和 Farcaster 的進一步擴張競爭。隨著蛋糕越來越大，我們最終可以得到「加密貨幣領域的 Twitter/X 和 Facebook」平台。

Finally, “Super Wallets” took off in Q4 2024. They aim to offer a comprehensive alternative to centralized exchanges for new users. The leading players are Infinex, launched by Kain Warwick, and DeFiApp, launched by seasoned builders in DeFi. Both are working on UX problems, something we have never done very well as an industry.

最後，「超級錢包」於 2024 年第四季起飛。領先的參與者是 Kain Warwick 推出的 Infinex 和由經驗豐富的 DeFi 建造者推出的 DeFiApp。兩者都致力於解決用戶體驗問題，這是我們行業從未做得很好的事情。

Bonus prediction: MiCA will power crypto expansion in Europe

額外預測：MiCA 將推動加密貨幣在歐洲的擴張

Crypto regulations provide the foundations for new projects. They lay the groundwork for clear rules and guidelines of organizational structure. MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation) attempts to bring just that with an aim to increase the importance of EUR-related assets. This could potentially bridge crypto innovation between the U.S. and Europe.

加密貨幣法規為新項目奠定了基礎。它們為組織結構的明確規則和指導方針奠定了基礎。 MiCA（加密資產市場監管）試圖實現這一目標，旨在提高歐元相關資產的重要性。這可能會在美國和歐洲之間架起加密貨幣創新的橋樑。