加密货币调整迫在眉睫：通货膨胀、利率担忧加剧看跌情绪

由于对持续通胀的担忧和降息预期的降低，加密货币研究公司 10x Research 预计，包括股票和加密货币在内的风险资产可能出现价格调整。他们强调了战略投资组合多元化的重要性，强调了与债券市场当前预测相关的风险以及美联储今年不降息的可能性，这可能会挑战推动近期比特币上涨的叙述。

Crypto Research Firm Warns of Impending Price Correction Amid Inflationary Headwinds

加密货币研究公司警告称，在通胀逆风中价格即将调整

Key Points:

关键点：

• Crypto research firm 10x Research has issued a bearish warning, citing inflation as a significant trigger for a potential price correction in risk assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.
• The firm emphasizes that the sustained crypto bull market cannot rely solely on the participation of U.S. baby boomers and requires a broader portfolio diversification strategy.
• Persistent inflation and the prospect of interest rate cuts pose significant risks to the market.
• The research highlights a bullish trend in Bitcoin following halving events but cautions that the post-halving rally may not materialize as expected.

Analysis:

加密货币研究公司 10x Research 发出看跌警告，称通胀是股票和加密货币等风险资产潜在价格调整的重要触发因素。该公司强调，持续的加密货币牛市不能仅仅依靠美国婴儿潮一代的参与并需要更广泛的投资组合多元化策略。持续的通胀和降息前景对市场构成重大风险。该研究强调了减半事件后比特币的看涨趋势，但警告说减半后的反弹可能不会如预期那样实现。分析：

In its April 15 newsletter, "We Sold Everything Last Night," 10x Research expresses concerns about the sustainability of the current crypto bull market. The firm argues that the narrative attributing the rally to the entry of U.S. baby boomers into the market is insufficient to justify continued upward momentum.

10x Research 在 4 月 15 日的时事通讯“我们昨晚卖掉了所有东西”中表达了对当前加密货币牛市可持续性的担忧。该公司认为，将上涨归因于美国婴儿潮一代进入市场的说法不足以证明持续上涨势头的合理性。

10x Research stresses the importance of understanding markets as a dynamic environment where high-conviction opportunities constantly emerge. The key to success, they assert, lies in ongoing analysis and the ability to identify favorable odds.

10x Research 强调将市场理解为动态环境的重要性，在这个环境中，高信念的机会不断出现。他们断言，成功的关键在于持续的分析和识别有利赔率的能力。

Inflationary Pressures and Interest Rate Trajectory:

通胀压力和利率轨迹：

The research underscores the significance of persistent inflation as a primary driver of potential price corrections. With 10-year Treasury yields surpassing 4.50% and the bond market projecting less than three cuts, 10x Research believes risk assets may be approaching a crucial turning point.

该研究强调了持续通胀作为潜在价格调整主要驱动力的重要性。 10x Research 认为，随着 10 年期国债收益率超过 4.50%，债券市场预计降息幅度将小于 3 次，风险资产可能正在接近一个关键转折点。

The firm expresses apprehension that the Federal Reserve may not implement any interest rate cuts this year, contradicting the narrative that has fueled much of the 2023/2024 Bitcoin rally. This expectation of interest rate cuts had been a key factor driving market optimism.

该公司对美联储今年可能不会实施任何降息表示担忧，这与推动 2023/2024 年比特币上涨的说法相矛盾。这种降息预期是推动市场乐观的关键因素。

Post-Halving Patterns and Cautious Outlook:

减半后的模式和谨慎的前景：

Historically, Bitcoin halving events have often had a bullish impact in the short term. Sixty days after the last three halving events, Bitcoin experienced an average increase of 16%. However, the returns were heavily influenced by the 2012 post-halving return, where prices surged by 45%.

从历史上看，比特币减半事件往往会在短期内产生看涨影响。在最近三次减半事件发生 60 天后，比特币平均上涨了 16%。然而，回报率受到2012年减半后回报率的严重影响，当时价格飙升了45%。

The research indicates that the pre-halving 60-day window has historically been bullish, predicting a rally towards $68,000, which subsequently occurred. In contrast, the post-halving data still shows a 16% surge, with returns only picking up after 50 days.

研究表明，减半前的 60 天窗口历来看涨，预测价格将上涨至 68,000 美元，随后出现了这种情况。相比之下，减半后的数据仍然显示16%的飙升，回报率在50天后才有所回升。

Bearish Stance and Investment Strategy:

看跌立场和投资策略：

10x Research maintains a bearish stance on risk assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies. They have sold all their tech stocks and hold only a limited number of high-conviction cryptocurrencies. The firm is lightly positioned and anticipates buying opportunities at more favorable levels.

10x Research 对风险资产（包括股票和加密货币）保持看跌立场。他们已经卖掉了所有科技股，只持有有限数量的高可信度加密货币。该公司仓位较轻，并预计在更有利的水平上有买入机会。

Industry Outlook:

行业展望：

The upcoming Benzinga Future of Digital Assets event on November 19 is expected to provide insights into Bitcoin's growing influence as an institutional asset class.

即将于 11 月 19 日举行的 Benzinga 数字资产未来活动预计将深入了解比特币作为机构资产类别日益增长的影响力。