5 年内，CrowdStrike 和 Coinbase 的价值可能超过百事可乐和星巴克

很难想象还有哪个企业比百事可乐拥有更多的标志性品牌。它不仅拥有1898年以百事可乐名义推出的同名百事可乐品牌，还拥有激浪、乐事薯片、佳得乐、多力多滋、托斯蒂多、桂格燕麦等知名品牌。

Despite being founded recently, CrowdStrike and Coinbase could be valued higher than Pepsi and Starbucks in 5 years

尽管成立不久，CrowdStrike 和 Coinbase 的估值在 5 年内可能会高于百事可乐和星巴克

Both CrowdStrike and Coinbase are quickly approaching milestones that would put them ahead of legacy food and beverage giant PepsiCo and coffeehouse chain Starbucks in terms of market valuation. If things go well for these two companies, they could be worth more than Pepsi within five years.

CrowdStrike 和 Coinbase 都在迅速接近里程碑，这将使它们在市场估值方面领先于传统食品和饮料巨头百事可乐和咖啡馆连锁店星巴克。如果这两家公司进展顺利，五年内它们的市值可能会超过百事可乐。

Here's a closer look at how CrowdStrike and Coinbase could pull this off.

下面详细介绍了 CrowdStrike 和 Coinbase 如何实现这一目标。

1. CrowdStrike (CRWD)

1.CrowdStrike（CRWD）

CrowdStrike isn't a single cybersecurity product. Instead, it's a software platform with nearly 30 products -- called modules -- to choose from. Customers can select the modules that meet their needs and tend to start small before consolidating their cybersecurity spend by increasing the number of CrowdStrike modules they're using.

CrowdStrike 不是一个单一的网络安全产品。相反，它是一个软件平台，有近 30 种产品（称为模块）可供选择。客户可以选择满足其需求的模块，并且往往从小规模开始，然后通过增加正在使用的 CrowdStrike 模块数量来巩固网络安全支出。

CrowdStrike grows in two main ways. First, it can attract new customers, which it's doing. The company doesn't report how many end users it has anymore, but it confirms that it's still adding net new customers. Second, its customers can adopt more of its software modules, which is also happening.

CrowdStrike 的发展主要有两种方式。首先，它可以吸引新客户，而它正在这样做。该公司不再报告其拥有多少最终用户，但它确认仍在增加净新客户。其次，它的客户可以采用更多的软件模块，这也正在发生。

Between net new customers and the adoption of more modules, CrowdStrike's annual recurring revenue (ARR) is skyrocketing. In its fiscal Q3 of 2025, the company surpassed ARR of $4 billion, which was up 27% year over year. But it's not stopping there. Roughly six years from now, management hopes to be at $10 billion in ARR.

在净新客户和更多模块的采用之间，CrowdStrike 的年度经常性收入 (ARR) 正在飙升。 2025 年第三财季，该公司的 ARR 超过 40 亿美元，同比增长 27%。但它并不止于此。大约六年后，管理层希望 ARR 达到 100 亿美元。

CrowdStrike also aims for a long-term free cash flow margin of 34% to 38%. Assuming it hits its goals, the company could be generating somewhere around $3.5 billion in annual free cash flow. In this scenario, its free cash flow valuation could get a little cheaper between now and 2030, and its market valuation could still surpass Pepsi's current market cap.

CrowdStrike 的长期自由现金流利润率目标还为 34% 至 38%。假设实现其目标，该公司每年可能会产生约 35 亿美元的自由现金流。在这种情况下，从现在到 2030 年，其自由现金流估值可能会便宜一些，而其市场估值仍可能超过百事可乐当前的市值。

With the cybersecurity space being as large and crucial as it is, I wouldn't bet against industry leader CrowdStrike.

由于网络安全空间如此庞大且至关重要，我不会打赌行业领导者 CrowdStrike 会失败。

2. Coinbase (COIN)

2.Coinbase（COIN）

To be clear, I think that CrowdStrike's path to a $200 billion valuation is much smoother than Coinbase's path. However, the cryptocurrency platform still has a shot.

需要明确的是，我认为 CrowdStrike 达到 2000 亿美元估值的道路比 Coinbase 的道路要顺利得多。然而，加密货币平台仍有机会。

From a regulatory perspective, the long-term outlook for cryptocurrency has always been somewhat murky. But the next four years could be the most favorable ever considering President-elect Donald Trump ran with a pro-crypto message. Furthermore, cryptocurrency is growing in popularity, motivating other politicians to take it seriously on behalf of their constituents.

从监管角度来看，加密货币的长期前景一直有些不明朗。但考虑到当选总统唐纳德·特朗普带着支持加密货币的信息，未来四年可能是有史以来最有利的四年。此外，加密货币越来越受欢迎，促使其他政客代表其选民认真对待它。

In short, if there was ever a time in which crypto was poised for substantial adoption, the time is now. And that's particularly good for Coinbase. Not only is the platform used by millions of people, but it's also seen as a trustworthy platform for institutional investors and enterprises.

简而言之，如果说加密货币曾经有一个被广泛采用的时期，那么现在就是时候了。这对 Coinbase 来说尤其有利。该平台不仅被数百万人使用，而且还被机构投资者和企业视为值得信赖的平台。

Now, granted, the cryptocurrency space is known for its ups and downs, so investors should prepare themselves for some volatility. That said, when times are good, Coinbase can be a very profitable business -- it had more than $3 billion in annual earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) a few years ago.

现在，加密货币领域以其起伏而闻名，因此投资者应该为一些波动做好准备。也就是说，当形势好的时候，Coinbase 可以成为一家非常有利可图的企业——几年前，它的息税折旧摊销前利润 (EBITDA) 超过 30 亿美元。

Could Coinbase hit $7 billion in EBITDA over the next five years in a favorable regulatory environment for crypto? Things get interesting for shareholders if it can.

在有利的加密货币监管环境下，Coinbase 能否在未来五年内达到 70 亿美元的 EBITDA？如果可以的话，事情对股东来说会变得有趣。

Consider that Coinbase's enterprise value is roughly 30 times its EBITDA right now, which is a reasonable valuation. At this multiple, Coinbase would be worth more than Pepsi if it can boost its EBITDA to $7 billion. Granted, broad adoption for the cryptocurrency ecosystem would be needed for profits to grow this much, and that's not guaranteed. But even just modest growth will likely push its valuation higher than Starbucks', which is still an impressive feat.

考虑到 Coinbase 的企业价值目前约为 EBITDA 的 30 倍，这是一个合理的估值。按照这个倍数计算，如果 Coinbase 能够将 EBITDA 提高到 70 亿美元，它的价值将超过百事可乐。诚然，利润增长如此之多需要加密货币生态系统的广泛采用，但这并不能保证。但即使只是温和的增长也可能使其估值高于星巴克，这仍然是一个令人印象深刻的壮举。

Ultimately, I believe that both CrowdStrike and Coinbase will be valued higher than Starbucks before long. And I believe they could both be worth more than Pepsi in the next five years if things go well.

最终，我相信不久之后 CrowdStrike 和 Coinbase 的估值都会高于星巴克。我相信，如果一切顺利的话，未来五年它们的身价都可能超过百事可乐。

That said, I'd consider Coinbase the more speculative prediction of the two. By contrast, even if it doesn't reach the milestone within the next five years, I believe it's only a matter of time before CrowdStrike is more valuable than Pepsi.

也就是说，我认为 Coinbase 是两者中更具投机性的预测。相比之下，即使在未来五年内没有达到这一里程碑，我相信 CrowdStrike 比百事可乐更有价值只是时间问题。