5 年內，CrowdStrike 和 Coinbase 的價值可能超過百事可樂和星巴克

很難想像還有哪個企業比百事可樂擁有更多的標誌性品牌。它不僅擁有1898年以百事可樂名義推出的同名百事可樂品牌，還擁有激浪、樂事洋芋片、佳得樂、多力多滋、托斯蒂多、桂格燕麥等知名品牌。

Despite being founded recently, CrowdStrike and Coinbase could be valued higher than Pepsi and Starbucks in 5 years

儘管成立不久，CrowdStrike 和 Coinbase 的估值在 5 年內可能會高於百事可樂和星巴克

Both CrowdStrike and Coinbase are quickly approaching milestones that would put them ahead of legacy food and beverage giant PepsiCo and coffeehouse chain Starbucks in terms of market valuation. If things go well for these two companies, they could be worth more than Pepsi within five years.

CrowdStrike 和 Coinbase 都在迅速接近里程碑，這將使它們在市場估值方面領先傳統食品和飲料巨頭百事可樂和咖啡館連鎖店星巴克。如果這兩家公司進展順利，五年內它們的市值可能會超過百事可樂。

Here's a closer look at how CrowdStrike and Coinbase could pull this off.

以下詳細介紹了 CrowdStrike 和 Coinbase 如何實現這一目標。

1. CrowdStrike (CRWD)

1.CrowdStrike（CRWD）

CrowdStrike isn't a single cybersecurity product. Instead, it's a software platform with nearly 30 products -- called modules -- to choose from. Customers can select the modules that meet their needs and tend to start small before consolidating their cybersecurity spend by increasing the number of CrowdStrike modules they're using.

CrowdStrike 不是單一的網路安全產品。相反，它是一個軟體平台，有近 30 種產品（稱為模組）可供選擇。客戶可以選擇滿足其需求的模組，並且往往從小規模開始，然後透過增加正在使用的 CrowdStrike 模組數量來鞏固網路安全支出。

CrowdStrike grows in two main ways. First, it can attract new customers, which it's doing. The company doesn't report how many end users it has anymore, but it confirms that it's still adding net new customers. Second, its customers can adopt more of its software modules, which is also happening.

CrowdStrike 的發展主要有兩種方式。首先，它可以吸引新客戶，而它正在這樣做。該公司不再報告擁有多少最終用戶，但它確認仍在增加淨新客戶。其次，它的客戶可以採用更多的軟體模組，這也正在發生。

Between net new customers and the adoption of more modules, CrowdStrike's annual recurring revenue (ARR) is skyrocketing. In its fiscal Q3 of 2025, the company surpassed ARR of $4 billion, which was up 27% year over year. But it's not stopping there. Roughly six years from now, management hopes to be at $10 billion in ARR.

在淨新客戶和更多模組的採用之間，CrowdStrike 的年度經常性收入 (ARR) 正在飆升。 2025 年第三財季，該公司的 ARR 超過 40 億美元，年增 27%。但它不止於此。大約六年後，管理層希望 ARR 達到 100 億美元。

CrowdStrike also aims for a long-term free cash flow margin of 34% to 38%. Assuming it hits its goals, the company could be generating somewhere around $3.5 billion in annual free cash flow. In this scenario, its free cash flow valuation could get a little cheaper between now and 2030, and its market valuation could still surpass Pepsi's current market cap.

CrowdStrike 的長期自由現金流利潤率目標還為 34% 至 38%。假設實現其目標，該公司每年可能會產生約 35 億美元的自由現金流。在這種情況下，從現在到 2030 年，其自由現金流估值可能會便宜一些，而其市場估值仍可能超過百事可樂目前的市值。

With the cybersecurity space being as large and crucial as it is, I wouldn't bet against industry leader CrowdStrike.

由於網路安全空間如此龐大且至關重要，我不會打賭產業領導者 CrowdStrike 會失敗。

2. Coinbase (COIN)

2.Coinbase（COIN）

To be clear, I think that CrowdStrike's path to a $200 billion valuation is much smoother than Coinbase's path. However, the cryptocurrency platform still has a shot.

需要明確的是，我認為 CrowdStrike 達到 2,000 億美元估值的道路比 Coinbase 的道路要順利得多。然而，加密貨幣平台仍有機會。

From a regulatory perspective, the long-term outlook for cryptocurrency has always been somewhat murky. But the next four years could be the most favorable ever considering President-elect Donald Trump ran with a pro-crypto message. Furthermore, cryptocurrency is growing in popularity, motivating other politicians to take it seriously on behalf of their constituents.

從監管角度來看，加密貨幣的長期前景一直有些不明朗。但考慮到當選總統唐納德·川普帶著支持加密貨幣的訊息，未來四年可能是有史以來最有利的四年。此外，加密貨幣越來越受歡迎，促使其他政客代表其選民認真對待它。

In short, if there was ever a time in which crypto was poised for substantial adoption, the time is now. And that's particularly good for Coinbase. Not only is the platform used by millions of people, but it's also seen as a trustworthy platform for institutional investors and enterprises.

簡而言之，如果加密貨幣曾經有一個被廣泛採用的時期，那麼現在就是時候了。這對 Coinbase 來說尤其有利。該平台不僅被數百萬人使用，而且還被機構投資者和企業視為值得信賴的平台。

Now, granted, the cryptocurrency space is known for its ups and downs, so investors should prepare themselves for some volatility. That said, when times are good, Coinbase can be a very profitable business -- it had more than $3 billion in annual earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) a few years ago.

現在，加密貨幣領域以其起伏而聞名，因此投資者應該為一些波動做好準備。也就是說，當情況好的時候，Coinbase 可以成為一家非常有利可圖的企業——幾年前，它的息稅折舊攤提前利潤 (EBITDA) 超過 30 億美元。

Could Coinbase hit $7 billion in EBITDA over the next five years in a favorable regulatory environment for crypto? Things get interesting for shareholders if it can.

在有利的加密貨幣監管環境下，Coinbase 能否在未來五年內達到 70 億美元的 EBITDA？如果可以的話，事情對股東來說會變得有趣。

Consider that Coinbase's enterprise value is roughly 30 times its EBITDA right now, which is a reasonable valuation. At this multiple, Coinbase would be worth more than Pepsi if it can boost its EBITDA to $7 billion. Granted, broad adoption for the cryptocurrency ecosystem would be needed for profits to grow this much, and that's not guaranteed. But even just modest growth will likely push its valuation higher than Starbucks', which is still an impressive feat.

考慮到 Coinbase 的企業價值目前約為 EBITDA 的 30 倍，這是一個合理的估值。以這個倍數計算，如果 Coinbase 能夠將 EBITDA 提高到 70 億美元，它的價值將超過百事可樂。誠然，利潤成長如此之多需要加密貨幣生態系統的廣泛採用，但這並不能保證。但即使只是溫和的成長也可能會推高其估值高於星巴克，這仍然是一個令人印象深刻的壯舉。

Ultimately, I believe that both CrowdStrike and Coinbase will be valued higher than Starbucks before long. And I believe they could both be worth more than Pepsi in the next five years if things go well.

最終，我相信不久之後 CrowdStrike 和 Coinbase 的估值都會高於星巴克。我相信，如果一切順利的話，未來五年它們的身價都可能超過百事可樂。

That said, I'd consider Coinbase the more speculative prediction of the two. By contrast, even if it doesn't reach the milestone within the next five years, I believe it's only a matter of time before CrowdStrike is more valuable than Pepsi.

也就是說，我認為 Coinbase 是兩者中更具投機性的預測。相比之下，即使在未來五年內沒有達到這一里程碑，我相信 CrowdStrike 比百事可樂更有價值只是時間問題。