“螃蟹”和“鱼”是比特币飙升的推动力吗？

在比特币飙升至 70,000 美元以上的过程中，被称为“螃蟹”（1-10 BTC）和“鱼”（10-100 BTC）的小持有者正在积极增持，而更小持有者（0-1 BTC）也加入了这一趋势。这种积累，加上中层投资者的集中，可能会导致对市场更加集中的控制。然而，挑战依然存在，因为牛熊市场周期指标表明可能出现过热，而且重要的持有者和矿商正在加强抛售活动。

Are "Crabs" and "Fishes" Fueling Bitcoin's Rally?

“螃蟹”和“鱼”推动比特币上涨吗？

Bitcoin's recent surge above $70,000 has sparked speculation about its future trajectory. Analysts are keeping a close eye on the behavior of two key groups of holders: "crabs" (with 1 to 10 BTC) and "fishes" (with 10 to 100 BTC).

比特币最近飙升至 70,000 美元以上，引发了对其未来走势的猜测。分析师正在密切关注两个关键持有者群体的行为：“螃蟹”（拥有 1 到 10 BTC）和“鱼”（拥有 10 到 100 BTC）。

Crabs and Fishes Shift from Distribution to Accumulation

螃蟹和鱼类从分配转向积累

Recent data reveals a significant shift in the behavior of crabs and fishes. These holders have been accumulating BTC at the highest rate since November 2023. Notably, even smaller holders (0 to 1 BTC) are joining the accumulation trend.

最近的数据显示螃蟹和鱼类的行为发生了重大变化。这些持有者一直在以 2023 年 11 月以来的最高速度积累 BTC。值得注意的是，甚至较小的持有者（0 到 1 BTC）也加入了积累趋势。

Centralization of Control: A Potential Concern

集中控制：一个潜在的问题

While this accumulation broadens the investor base, it also concentrates holdings among these mid-tier investors. This could lead to more centralized control over the market compared to a scenario with a wider distribution of smaller holdings controlled by whales.

虽然这种积累扩大了投资者基础，但也集中了这些中层投资者的持股。与鲸鱼控制的较小资产更广泛分布的情况相比，这可能会导致对市场更加集中的控制。

Overheating and Sell-Offs: Are Challenges Ahead?

过热和抛售：未来面临挑战吗？

Despite the positive sentiment, key metrics suggest that the market may be overheating. The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has entered an overheated-bull phase, and traders are holding substantial unrealized profit margins.

尽管市场情绪积极，但关键指标表明市场可能过热。牛熊市场周期指标已进入过热牛市阶段，交易者持有大量未实现利润。

Selling Spree: Miners and Whales Offload Holdings

抛售热潮：矿工和鲸鱼减持股份

This overheating has triggered a selling spree among BTC traders, who are cashing in on their profits. The scale of selling has not been seen since May 2019. Additionally, significant Bitcoin holders and miners have also begun offloading their holdings amid the soaring prices.

这种过热引发了比特币交易者的抛售热潮，他们正在兑现利润。自 2019 年 5 月以来，抛售规模从未出现过。此外，在价格飙升的情况下，重要的比特币持有者和矿工也开始抛售其持有的比特币。

MVRV Ratio: Profitability Remains Low

MVRV 比率：盈利能力仍然较低

Interestingly, the MVRV ratio has remained low, indicating that many holders are still not profitable. This suggests that the current uptick in price may be driven by new entrants who have not yet realized profits.

有趣的是，MVRV比率仍然很低，这表明许多持有者仍然没有盈利。这表明当前价格上涨可能是由尚未实现利润的新进入者推动的。

Can Bitcoin Breach $70,000 Again?

比特币能否再次突破7万美元？

As long as profitability remains low, it is more likely that BTC will reach $70,000 again. However, sentiment may shift as prices rise above $70,000, increasing the likelihood of a correction.

只要盈利能力保持在低位，BTC 就更有可能再次达到 70,000 美元。然而，随着价格升至 70,000 美元以上，市场情绪可能会发生变化，从而增加回调的可能性。

Conclusion: A Complex Market with Multiple Dynamics

结论：具有多重动态的复杂市场

Bitcoin's recent price action highlights the complex dynamics of the cryptocurrency market. While accumulation by mid-tier holders is a positive sign, concerns about overheating and selling pressure cannot be ignored. The profitability of holders and the actions of large players will continue to shape the market's trajectory in the coming weeks and months.

比特币最近的价格走势凸显了加密货币市场的复杂动态。虽然中型持有者的增持是一个积极信号，但对过热和抛售压力的担忧也不容忽视。持有人的盈利能力和大型参与者的行动将继续影响未来几周和几个月的市场轨迹。