「螃蟹」和「魚」是比特幣飆升的動力嗎？

在比特幣飆升至70,000 美元以上的過程中，被稱為「螃蟹」（1-10 BTC）和「魚」（10-100 BTC）的小持有者正在積極增持，而更小持有者（0-1 BTC）也加入了這一趨勢。這種積累，加上中層投資者的集中，可能會導致對市場更加集中的控制。然而，挑戰依然存在，因為牛熊市場週期指標表明可能出現過熱，而且重要的持有者和礦商正在加強拋售活動。

Are "Crabs" and "Fishes" Fueling Bitcoin's Rally?

「螃蟹」和「魚」推動比特幣上漲嗎？

Bitcoin's recent surge above $70,000 has sparked speculation about its future trajectory. Analysts are keeping a close eye on the behavior of two key groups of holders: "crabs" (with 1 to 10 BTC) and "fishes" (with 10 to 100 BTC).

比特幣最近飆升至 7 萬美元以上，引發了對其未來趨勢的猜測。分析師正在密切關注兩個關鍵持有者群體的行為：「螃蟹」（擁有 1 到 10 BTC）和「魚」（擁有 10 到 100 BTC）。

Crabs and Fishes Shift from Distribution to Accumulation

螃蟹和魚類從分配轉向積累

Recent data reveals a significant shift in the behavior of crabs and fishes. These holders have been accumulating BTC at the highest rate since November 2023. Notably, even smaller holders (0 to 1 BTC) are joining the accumulation trend.

最近的數據顯示螃蟹和魚類的行為發生了重大變化。這些持有者一直在以 2023 年 11 月以來的最高速度累積 BTC。值得注意的是，甚至較小的持有者（0 到 1 BTC）也加入了累積趨勢。

Centralization of Control: A Potential Concern

集中控制：一個潛在的問題

While this accumulation broadens the investor base, it also concentrates holdings among these mid-tier investors. This could lead to more centralized control over the market compared to a scenario with a wider distribution of smaller holdings controlled by whales.

雖然這種累積擴大了投資者基礎，但也集中了這些中階投資者的持股。與鯨魚控制的較小資產更廣泛分佈的情況相比，這可能會導致對市場更集中的控制。

Overheating and Sell-Offs: Are Challenges Ahead?

過熱與拋售：未來面臨挑戰嗎？

Despite the positive sentiment, key metrics suggest that the market may be overheating. The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has entered an overheated-bull phase, and traders are holding substantial unrealized profit margins.

儘管市場情緒積極，但關鍵指標表明市場可能過熱。牛熊市場週期指標已進入過熱牛市階段，交易者持有大量未實現利潤。

Selling Spree: Miners and Whales Offload Holdings

拋售熱潮：礦工和鯨魚減持股份

This overheating has triggered a selling spree among BTC traders, who are cashing in on their profits. The scale of selling has not been seen since May 2019. Additionally, significant Bitcoin holders and miners have also begun offloading their holdings amid the soaring prices.

這種過熱引發了比特幣交易者的拋售熱潮，他們正在兌現利潤。自 2019 年 5 月以來，拋售規模從未出現過。此外，在價格飆升的情況下，重要的比特幣持有者和礦工也開始拋售其持有的比特幣。

MVRV Ratio: Profitability Remains Low

MVRV 比率：獲利能力仍然較低

Interestingly, the MVRV ratio has remained low, indicating that many holders are still not profitable. This suggests that the current uptick in price may be driven by new entrants who have not yet realized profits.

有趣的是，MVRV比率仍然很低，這表明許多持有者仍然沒有盈利。這表明當前價格上漲可能是由尚未實現利潤的新進入者推動的。

Can Bitcoin Breach $70,000 Again?

比特幣能否再次突破7萬美元？

As long as profitability remains low, it is more likely that BTC will reach $70,000 again. However, sentiment may shift as prices rise above $70,000, increasing the likelihood of a correction.

只要獲利能力保持在低位，BTC 就更有可能再次達到 70,000 美元。然而，隨著價格升至 70,000 美元以上，市場情緒可能會發生變化，從而增加回調的可能性。

Conclusion: A Complex Market with Multiple Dynamics

結論：具有多重動態的複雜市場

Bitcoin's recent price action highlights the complex dynamics of the cryptocurrency market. While accumulation by mid-tier holders is a positive sign, concerns about overheating and selling pressure cannot be ignored. The profitability of holders and the actions of large players will continue to shape the market's trajectory in the coming weeks and months.

比特幣最近的價格走勢凸顯了加密貨幣市場的複雜動態。雖然中型持有者的增持是一個正面訊號，但對過熱和拋售壓力的擔憂也不容忽視。持有者的獲利能力和大型參與者的行動將繼續影響未來幾週和幾個月的市場軌跡。