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斯科特·加利斯表示,这对于比特币和以太坊等风险资产来说是个好消息。
CPI Growth Is Set to Slow Even More
CPI 增长将进一步放缓
And that’s good news for risk assets like bitcoin and ethereum, says Scott Garliss.
斯科特·加利斯表示,这对于比特币和以太坊等风险资产来说是个好消息。
Election 2024 coverage presented by
2024 年选举报道由
One of my favorite parts of every morning is drinking coffee. After my espresso maker warms up, I look forward to making two lattes, each with an extra shot of espresso. It has become such a part of my routine that often, I feel like my day can’t get started without it.
每天早上我最喜欢的事情之一就是喝咖啡。当我的浓缩咖啡机预热后,我期待着制作两杯拿铁咖啡,每杯拿铁都加一杯浓缩咖啡。它已经成为我日常生活的一部分,我常常觉得没有它我的一天就无法开始。
Prior to COVID, the routine was a little different. Back then, I still looked forward to my daily coffees, but instead of making them, I enjoyed walking out to purchase them. I would come into the office, get my morning work done, and then shoot out to see my favorite barista and a hot cup of joe.
在新冠疫情爆发之前,惯例有点不同。那时,我仍然期待着每天喝咖啡,但我不再制作它们,而是喜欢出去购买它们。我会走进办公室,完成早上的工作,然后出去见我最喜欢的咖啡师和一杯热咖啡。
That all changed when I first came back to the office. You see, before the break, I was spending about $10/day or $5/cup. But the first thing I noticed when I grabbed my initial coffee was the price had jumped to $7.50. While the $5/cup didn’t really bother me before, because it had been that price for years, this price increase did.
当我第一次回到办公室时,一切都改变了。你看,在休息之前,我每天花费大约 10 美元或每杯 5 美元。但当我拿起第一杯咖啡时,我注意到的第一件事是价格跃升至 7.5 美元。虽然 5 美元/杯之前并没有真正困扰我,因为多年来一直都是这个价格,但这次价格上涨确实让我困扰。
Soon, I was cutting back to going out for just one cup a day. And, before long, it was only a couple of cups a week. After saving all that money from making coffee on my own, the 50% jump in price per cup was like a punch in the face. I no longer saw the need for it.
很快,我就减少了每天只喝一杯咖啡的习惯。不久之后,每周只喝几杯。自己煮咖啡省下这么多钱后,每杯价格上涨 50% 简直就是一拳打在我脸上。我不再认为有必要了。
Well, I was recently pressed for time and couldn’t make coffee on my own. So, I stopped in to grab a latte. And when I paid for it, I noticed the price was still the same. I’m sure many of you, like me, are experiencing similar situations. After seeing prices for all types of goods shoot up after the pandemic, you’re less willing to waste as many of your hard-earned dollars on buying them.
嗯,我最近时间紧迫,无法自己煮咖啡。所以,我停下来喝了一杯拿铁咖啡。当我付钱时,我发现价格还是一样。相信很多人和我一样,都经历过类似的情况。在看到大流行后所有类型商品的价格飙升后,您就不太愿意浪费大量辛苦赚来的钱来购买它们。
Later this week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release inflation growth metrics for September. And when that number is reported, it will show price pressures have hit their lowest level since February 2021. The change will support more rate cuts by our central bank, underpinning a steady rally in risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
本周晚些时候,美国劳工统计局将发布 9 月份通胀增长指标。当这一数字公布时,将表明价格压力已达到 2021 年 2 月以来的最低水平。这一变化将支持央行进一步降息,支撑加密货币等风险资产的稳步反弹。
But don’t take my word for it, let’s look at what the data’s telling us.
但不要相信我的话,让我们看看数据告诉我们什么。
Every month, the Dallas, Kansas City, New York, and Philadelphia Feds ask manufacturers in their districts about the state of activity. The questionnaires ask those companies about things like new orders, lead times, employment, and production. It asks whether the costs are rising, falling, or unchanged.
每个月,达拉斯、堪萨斯城、纽约和费城的联邦调查局都会询问其所在地区的制造商的活动状况。调查问卷向这些公司询问了新订单、交货时间、就业和生产等问题。它询问成本是上升、下降还是不变。
But we must focus on “prices received for goods.” The number indicates what customers pay manufacturers for their finished product. It’s akin to CPI. So, the direction of prices received is an indicator of whether inflation is rising or falling.
但我们必须关注“商品收到的价格”。该数字表示客户为制造商支付的成品费用。它类似于 CPI。因此,收到的价格方向是通货膨胀是上升还是下降的指标。
Now, the states where those four banks are headquartered – Texas, Missouri, New York, and Pennsylvania – account for roughly 25% of domestic economic output. So, we can get a decent idea of national demand. But the results come out ahead of CPI, so it’s like having an early look into the data.
现在,这四家银行总部所在的州——德克萨斯州、密苏里州、纽约州和宾夕法尼亚州——约占国内经济产出的 25%。因此,我们可以对国家需求有一个很好的了解。但结果早于消费者物价指数 (CPI) 公布,因此就像提前查看数据一样。
And the latest readings indicate prices received fell…
最新读数表明收到的价格下跌......
In the above chart, I combined the readings from the four central banks into a single gauge. It’s called the combined prices received index (CPRI) and is represented by the blue line. I then compared it to CPI (orange line). As you can see, CPRI tends to be a leading indicator. It peaked in October of 2021. Yet, it wasn’t until June of 2022 that CPI finally reached a 40+ year high before starting to roll over.
在上图中,我将四家央行的读数合并为一个指标。它称为综合价格接收指数 (CPRI),用蓝线表示。然后我将其与 CPI(橙色线)进行比较。正如您所看到的,CPRI 往往是领先指标。 2021年10月达到顶峰,但直到2022年6月CPI才终于达到40多年来的新高,才开始回滚。
As you’ll notice in the above chart, my index held a steady trend throughout 2019 and the start of 2020. Inflation growth followed suit, remaining under 2%. But then, when businesses sent workers home during the pandemic onset, the CPRI gauge dropped. And, as the economy reopened, it took off. In each instance, we see that CPI does the same, but on a lagged basis.
正如您在上图中注意到的那样,我的指数在 2019 年和 2020 年初保持稳定的趋势。通货膨胀率紧随其后,保持在 2% 以下。但随后,当企业在大流行爆发期间让工人回家时,CPRI 指数下降了。而且,随着经济重新开放,它开始腾飞。在每种情况下,我们都看到消费者物价指数 (CPI) 的表现相同,但有所滞后。
Now, it appears the CPRI trend is stabilizing. You can see this by looking at the right side of the above chart. This is happening as we’ve seen consumers’ excess COVID savings evaporate and spending slow. That means individuals are becoming increasingly price conscious and hanging onto more of their money.
现在,CPRI 趋势似乎正在企稳。您可以通过查看上图右侧来了解这一点。这种情况正在发生,因为我们看到消费者的过剩储蓄蒸发并且支出缓慢。这意味着个人的价格意识越来越强,并且持有更多的钱。
In December 2023, the gauge had a reading of 8.4. This past month the number was 8.8. In fact, so far this year, the index has held in a range between 5 and 10. This is important because the longer it holds steady
2023 年 12 月,仪表读数为 8.4。上个月这个数字是 8.8。事实上,今年到目前为止,该指数一直保持在 5 到 10 之间。这一点很重要,因为它保持稳定的时间越长
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