|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
史考特·加利斯表示,這對比特幣和以太坊等風險資產來說是個好消息。
CPI Growth Is Set to Slow Even More
CPI 成長將進一步放緩
And that’s good news for risk assets like bitcoin and ethereum, says Scott Garliss.
史考特·加利斯表示,這對比特幣和以太坊等風險資產來說是個好消息。
Election 2024 coverage presented by
2024 年選舉報道由
One of my favorite parts of every morning is drinking coffee. After my espresso maker warms up, I look forward to making two lattes, each with an extra shot of espresso. It has become such a part of my routine that often, I feel like my day can’t get started without it.
每天早上我最喜歡的事情之一就是喝咖啡。當我的濃縮咖啡機預熱後,我期待著製作兩杯拿鐵咖啡,每杯拿鐵都加一杯濃縮咖啡。它已經成為我日常生活的一部分,我常常覺得沒有它我的一天就無法開始。
Prior to COVID, the routine was a little different. Back then, I still looked forward to my daily coffees, but instead of making them, I enjoyed walking out to purchase them. I would come into the office, get my morning work done, and then shoot out to see my favorite barista and a hot cup of joe.
在新冠疫情爆發之前,慣例有點不同。那時,我仍然期待每天喝咖啡,但我不再製作它們,而是喜歡出去購買它們。我會走進辦公室,完成早上的工作,然後出去見我最喜歡的咖啡師和一杯熱咖啡。
That all changed when I first came back to the office. You see, before the break, I was spending about $10/day or $5/cup. But the first thing I noticed when I grabbed my initial coffee was the price had jumped to $7.50. While the $5/cup didn’t really bother me before, because it had been that price for years, this price increase did.
當我第一次回到辦公室時,一切都改變了。你看,在休息之前,我每天花費大約 10 美元或每杯 5 美元。但當我拿起第一杯咖啡時,我注意到的第一件事是價格躍升至 7.5 美元。雖然 5 美元/杯之前並沒有真正困擾我,因為多年來一直都是這個價格,但這次價格上漲確實讓我困擾。
Soon, I was cutting back to going out for just one cup a day. And, before long, it was only a couple of cups a week. After saving all that money from making coffee on my own, the 50% jump in price per cup was like a punch in the face. I no longer saw the need for it.
很快,我就減少了每天只喝一杯咖啡的習慣。不久之後,每週只喝幾杯。自己煮咖啡省下這麼多錢後,每杯價格上漲 50% 簡直就是一拳打在我臉上。我不再認為有必要了。
Well, I was recently pressed for time and couldn’t make coffee on my own. So, I stopped in to grab a latte. And when I paid for it, I noticed the price was still the same. I’m sure many of you, like me, are experiencing similar situations. After seeing prices for all types of goods shoot up after the pandemic, you’re less willing to waste as many of your hard-earned dollars on buying them.
嗯,我最近時間緊迫,無法自己煮咖啡。所以,我停下來喝了一杯拿鐵咖啡。當我付錢時,我發現價格還是一樣。相信很多人跟我一樣,都經歷過類似的情況。在看到大流行後所有類型商品的價格飆升後,您就不太願意浪費大量辛苦賺來的錢來購買它們。
Later this week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release inflation growth metrics for September. And when that number is reported, it will show price pressures have hit their lowest level since February 2021. The change will support more rate cuts by our central bank, underpinning a steady rally in risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
本週晚些時候,美國勞工統計局將發布 9 月通膨成長指標。當這一數字公佈時,將表明價格壓力已達到自 2021 年 2 月以來的最低水平。
But don’t take my word for it, let’s look at what the data’s telling us.
但不要相信我的話,讓我們看看數據告訴我們什麼。
Every month, the Dallas, Kansas City, New York, and Philadelphia Feds ask manufacturers in their districts about the state of activity. The questionnaires ask those companies about things like new orders, lead times, employment, and production. It asks whether the costs are rising, falling, or unchanged.
每個月,達拉斯、堪薩斯城、紐約和費城的聯邦調查局都會詢問其所在地區的製造商的活動狀況。問卷調查向這些公司詢問了新訂單、交貨時間、就業和生產等問題。它詢問成本是上升、下降還是不變。
But we must focus on “prices received for goods.” The number indicates what customers pay manufacturers for their finished product. It’s akin to CPI. So, the direction of prices received is an indicator of whether inflation is rising or falling.
但我們必須關注「商品收到的價格」。該數字表示客戶為製造商支付的成品費用。它類似於 CPI。因此,收到的價格方向是通貨膨脹是上升還是下降的指標。
Now, the states where those four banks are headquartered – Texas, Missouri, New York, and Pennsylvania – account for roughly 25% of domestic economic output. So, we can get a decent idea of national demand. But the results come out ahead of CPI, so it’s like having an early look into the data.
現在,這四家銀行總部所在的州——德克薩斯州、密蘇裡州、紐約州和賓夕法尼亞州——約佔國內經濟產出的 25%。因此,我們可以對國家需求有一個很好的了解。但結果早於消費者物價指數 (CPI) 公佈,因此就像提前查看數據一樣。
And the latest readings indicate prices received fell…
最新讀數顯示收到的價格下跌...
In the above chart, I combined the readings from the four central banks into a single gauge. It’s called the combined prices received index (CPRI) and is represented by the blue line. I then compared it to CPI (orange line). As you can see, CPRI tends to be a leading indicator. It peaked in October of 2021. Yet, it wasn’t until June of 2022 that CPI finally reached a 40+ year high before starting to roll over.
在上圖中,我將四家央行的讀數合併為一個指標。它稱為綜合價格接收指數 (CPRI),以藍線表示。然後我將其與 CPI(橙色線)進行比較。正如您所看到的,CPRI 往往是領先指標。 2021年10月達到頂峰,但直到2022年6月CPI才終於達到40多年來的新高,才開始回溯。
As you’ll notice in the above chart, my index held a steady trend throughout 2019 and the start of 2020. Inflation growth followed suit, remaining under 2%. But then, when businesses sent workers home during the pandemic onset, the CPRI gauge dropped. And, as the economy reopened, it took off. In each instance, we see that CPI does the same, but on a lagged basis.
正如您在上圖中註意到的那樣,我的指數在 2019 年和 2020 年初保持穩定的趨勢。但隨後,當企業在疫情爆發期間讓工人回家時,CPRI 指數下降了。而且,隨著經濟重新開放,它開始起飛。在每種情況下,我們都看到消費者物價指數 (CPI) 的表現相同,但有所滯後。
Now, it appears the CPRI trend is stabilizing. You can see this by looking at the right side of the above chart. This is happening as we’ve seen consumers’ excess COVID savings evaporate and spending slow. That means individuals are becoming increasingly price conscious and hanging onto more of their money.
現在,CPRI 趨勢似乎正在穩定下來。您可以透過查看上圖右側來了解這一點。這種情況正在發生,因為我們看到消費者的過剩儲蓄蒸發並且支出緩慢。這意味著個人的價格意識越來越強,並且持有更多的錢。
In December 2023, the gauge had a reading of 8.4. This past month the number was 8.8. In fact, so far this year, the index has held in a range between 5 and 10. This is important because the longer it holds steady
2023 年 12 月,儀表讀數為 8.4。上個月這個數字是 8.8。事實上,今年到目前為止,該指數一直保持在 5 到 10 之間。
免責聲明:info@kdj.com
所提供的資訊並非交易建議。 kDJ.com對任何基於本文提供的資訊進行的投資不承擔任何責任。加密貨幣波動性較大,建議您充分研究後謹慎投資!
如果您認為本網站使用的內容侵犯了您的版權,請立即聯絡我們(info@kdj.com),我們將及時刪除。
-
- 加密貨幣領域:隨著比特幣的動搖,以太坊逐漸崛起
- 2024-10-10 10:25:01
- 從策略認可到市場的不可預測性,加密貨幣領域充滿了活力。 Vitalik Buterin,以太坊背後的遠見者
-
- NFT 銷售終於恢復。這種勢頭背後的原因是什麼?
- 2024-10-10 10:25:01
- 經過過去幾週相當平淡的表現後,不可替代代幣開始再次顯示出生命的跡象。
-
- 華盛頓州 5 大購物中心!
- 2024-10-10 10:20:01
- 誰不喜歡商場?好吧,誰不喜歡五月星期一下午 1 點左右去購物中心(學校還在上課),而且這不是你工作的一部分?
-
- 美國司法部透過新穎的誘騙行動打擊加密貨幣產業的清洗交易
- 2024-10-10 10:15:01
- 加密產業對市場操縱並不陌生,代幣價格往往透過清洗交易等做法受到人為影響
-
- 帕納辛奈科斯隊和希臘後衛喬治·鮑爾多克去世,享年 31 歲
- 2024-10-10 10:15:01
- 希臘國腳鮑爾多克在布拉莫爾巷效力七年後,於今年夏天加盟帕納辛奈科斯,並於八月首次亮相。