对现货比特币 ETF 相关风险的担忧

Bianco Research 创始人吉姆·比安科 (Jim Bianco) 对现货比特币 ETF 相关风险表示担忧，理由是来自散户投资者的潜在抛售压力。他指出，通常持有很大一部分 ETF 的机构投资者并未按预期接受这些新产品，导致散户买家占据主导地位，平均购买价格明显高于当前水平。

Concerns Raised over Risks Associated with Spot Bitcoin ETFs

对现货比特币 ETF 相关风险的担忧

Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research, has expressed significant concerns regarding the potential risks involved in investing in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Bianco argues that these ETFs are predominantly held by retail investors and hedge funds rather than institutional investors, raising questions about their long-term viability.

Bianco Research 创始人 Jim Bianco 对投资现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 所涉及的潜在风险表示严重担忧。 Bianco 认为，这些 ETF 主要由散户投资者和对冲基金而非机构投资者持有，这引发了人们对其长期生存能力的质疑。

Dominance of Retail Investors

散户投资者占主导地位

According to Bianco, investment advisors (IAs), who typically hold a substantial portion of all ETFs, currently hold less than 1% of the new Bitcoin spot ETFs. This observation contradicts the prevailing narrative that institutional investors are embracing these ETFs.

据 Bianco 称，投资顾问 (IA) 通常持有所有 ETF 的很大一部分，但目前持有新比特币现货 ETF 的不到 1%。这一观察结果与机构投资者正在拥抱这些 ETF 的普遍说法相矛盾。

Bianco's analysis reveals that the average trade size for Bitcoin ETFs is a mere $14,000, indicating that retail investors are the primary buyers. He further notes that the average purchase price for these investors is approximately $58,000, approximately 10% below current levels.

Bianco 的分析显示，比特币 ETF 的平均交易规模仅为 14,000 美元，表明散户投资者是主要买家。他进一步指出，这些投资者的平均购买价格约为 58,000 美元，比当前水平低约 10%。

Potential Selling Pressure

潜在的抛售压力

Bianco warns that if the price of Bitcoin drops below this threshold, it could trigger significant selling pressure from retail investors, who are known for chasing momentum and selling at the first signs of trouble. This phenomenon, known as "paper hands," could lead to a downward spiral in Bitcoin's price.

比安科警告说，如果比特币价格跌破这一门槛，可能会引发散户投资者的巨大抛售压力，散户投资者以追逐势头并在出现问题的第一个迹象时抛售而闻名。这种被称为“纸手”的现象可能会导致比特币价格螺旋式下跌。

Bianco acknowledges the potential benefits of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs but cautions against their use as a means of building an alternative to the traditional finance system. He suggests that these ETFs may actually hinder progress by fueling speculative behavior and diverting attention from fundamental development.

Bianco 承认比特币和以太坊 ETF 的潜在好处，但警告不要将其用作构建传统金融体系替代方案的手段。他认为，这些 ETF 实际上可能会助长投机行为并转移人们对基本面发展的注意力，从而阻碍进步。

Industry Discord

行业不和谐

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has challenged Bianco's thesis, arguing that it is premature to draw definitive conclusions about the long-term prospects of these ETFs. Balchunas points out that the majority of quarterly reports filed by institutional investment managers have yet to be submitted, and that there are already a significant number of advisors who have reported owning spot ETFs.

彭博 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 对 Bianco 的论点提出了质疑，认为现在就这些 ETF 的长期前景得出明确的结论还为时过早。 Balchunas 指出，机构投资经理提交的大部分季度报告尚未提交，而且已经有大量顾问报告拥有现货 ETF。

Balchunas emphasizes that institutional investors typically take a gradual approach to building positions in new asset classes, and that it is unreasonable to expect them to invest heavily in Bitcoin ETFs in a matter of months. He also cautions against disregarding the influence of major financial institutions such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Invesco, which have a proven track record in the ETF market.

Balchunas 强调，机构投资者通常会采取渐进的方式建立新资产类别的头寸，期望他们在几个月内大量投资比特币 ETF 是不合理的。他还警告不要忽视贝莱德、富达和景顺等主要金融机构的影响力，这些机构在 ETF 市场上拥有良好的业绩记录。

Conclusion

结论

The debate surrounding the risks and potential benefits of spot Bitcoin ETFs is likely to continue as the market evolves. Investors should approach these investments with caution and carefully consider the potential for losses before committing any funds. The industry will closely monitor these developments and adjust their strategies accordingly.

随着市场的发展，围绕现货比特币 ETF 的风险和潜在收益的争论可能会继续下去。投资者应谨慎对待这些投资，并在投入任何资金之前仔细考虑损失的可能性。业界将密切关注这些事态发展并相应调整策略。