對現貨比特幣 ETF 相關風險的擔憂

Bianco Research 創辦人 Jim Bianco 對現貨比特幣 ETF 相關風險表示擔憂，理由是來自散戶投資者的潛在拋售壓力。他指出，通常持有很大一部分 ETF 的機構投資者並未按預期接受這些新產品，導致散戶買家佔據主導地位，平均購買價格明顯高於當前水準。

Concerns Raised over Risks Associated with Spot Bitcoin ETFs

對現貨比特幣 ETF 相關風險的擔憂

Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research, has expressed significant concerns regarding the potential risks involved in investing in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Bianco argues that these ETFs are predominantly held by retail investors and hedge funds rather than institutional investors, raising questions about their long-term viability.

Bianco Research 創辦人 Jim Bianco 對投資現貨比特幣交易所交易基金 (ETF) 所涉及的潛在風險表示嚴重擔憂。 Bianco 認為，這些 ETF 主要由散戶投資者和對沖基金而非機構投資者持有，這引發了人們對其長期生存能力的質疑。

Dominance of Retail Investors

散戶佔主導地位

According to Bianco, investment advisors (IAs), who typically hold a substantial portion of all ETFs, currently hold less than 1% of the new Bitcoin spot ETFs. This observation contradicts the prevailing narrative that institutional investors are embracing these ETFs.

據 Bianco 稱，投資顧問 (IA) 通常持有所有 ETF 的很大一部分，但目前持有新比特幣現貨 ETF 的不到 1%。這一觀察結果與機構投資者正在擁抱這些 ETF 的普遍說法相矛盾。

Bianco's analysis reveals that the average trade size for Bitcoin ETFs is a mere $14,000, indicating that retail investors are the primary buyers. He further notes that the average purchase price for these investors is approximately $58,000, approximately 10% below current levels.

Bianco 的分析顯示，比特幣 ETF 的平均交易規模僅為 14,000 美元，顯示散戶投資者是主要買家。他進一步指出，這些投資者的平均購買價格約為 58,000 美元，比目前水準低約 10%。

Potential Selling Pressure

潛在的拋售壓力

Bianco warns that if the price of Bitcoin drops below this threshold, it could trigger significant selling pressure from retail investors, who are known for chasing momentum and selling at the first signs of trouble. This phenomenon, known as "paper hands," could lead to a downward spiral in Bitcoin's price.

比安科警告說，如果比特幣價格跌破這一門檻，可能會引發散戶投資者的巨大拋售壓力，散戶投資者以追逐勢頭並在出現問題的第一個跡象時拋售而聞名。這種被稱為「紙手」的現象可能會導致比特幣價格螺旋式下跌。

Bianco acknowledges the potential benefits of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs but cautions against their use as a means of building an alternative to the traditional finance system. He suggests that these ETFs may actually hinder progress by fueling speculative behavior and diverting attention from fundamental development.

Bianco 承認比特幣和以太坊 ETF 的潛在好處，但警告不要將其用作構建傳統金融體係替代方案的手段。他認為，這些 ETF 實際上可能會助長投機行為並轉移人們對基本面發展的注意力，從而阻礙進步。

Industry Discord

行業不和諧

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has challenged Bianco's thesis, arguing that it is premature to draw definitive conclusions about the long-term prospects of these ETFs. Balchunas points out that the majority of quarterly reports filed by institutional investment managers have yet to be submitted, and that there are already a significant number of advisors who have reported owning spot ETFs.

彭博 ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 對 Bianco 的論點提出了質疑，認為現在就這些 ETF 的長期前景得出明確的結論還為時過早。 Balchunas 指出，機構投資經理提交的大部分季度報告尚未提交，而且已經有大量顧問報告擁有現貨 ETF。

Balchunas emphasizes that institutional investors typically take a gradual approach to building positions in new asset classes, and that it is unreasonable to expect them to invest heavily in Bitcoin ETFs in a matter of months. He also cautions against disregarding the influence of major financial institutions such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Invesco, which have a proven track record in the ETF market.

Balchunas 強調，機構投資者通常會採取漸進的方式建立新資產類別的頭寸，期望他們在幾個月內大量投資比特幣 ETF 是不合理的。他也警告不要忽視貝萊德、富達和景順等主要金融機構的影響力，這些機構在 ETF 市場上擁有良好的業績記錄。

Conclusion

結論

The debate surrounding the risks and potential benefits of spot Bitcoin ETFs is likely to continue as the market evolves. Investors should approach these investments with caution and carefully consider the potential for losses before committing any funds. The industry will closely monitor these developments and adjust their strategies accordingly.

隨著市場的發展，圍繞現貨比特幣 ETF 的風險和潛在收益的爭論可能會繼續下去。投資者應謹慎對待這些投資，並在投入任何資金之前仔細考慮損失的可能性。業界將密切關注這些事態發展並相應調整策略。