Coinbase Global（Coin）股票即将形成可怕的死亡交叉模式

尽管Coinbase Global（Coin）可能已经开始了一年，但加密货币交易所运营商无法克服对技术和数字股票资产的宏观经济状况下沉的情绪。

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) stock may have started the year with great promise, but the cryptocurrency exchange operator couldn't overcome the macroeconomic conditions that are sinking sentiment for tech and digital stocks.

Coinbase（NASDAQ：COIN）的股票可能已经开始了一年，但加密货币交易所运营商无法克服对技术和数字股票的情绪下沉的宏观经济状况。

Nasdaq is set to close about 8% lower this week, with further widespread declines expected ahead of this week's "Liberation Day" on Wednesday.

纳斯达克本周将关闭约8％，在本周周三的“解放日”之前，预计会进一步下降。

As such, COIN stock has nowhere to go but down—and in doing so, its price action is about to form the dreaded death cross pattern on its daily chart. Counterintuitively, this represents a timely short-term buying opportunity, which is why I'm turning bullish on COIN stock.

因此，硬币库存无处可去，但要下降 - 这样做，其价格动作即将在其日常图表上形成可怕的死亡交叉模式。违反直觉，这代表了及时的短期购买机会，这就是为什么我将看涨硬币股票的看涨。

Setting the Framework for COIN Stock

设置硬币库存的框架

Before diving into the optimistic narrative of COIN stock, it's important to note that major cryptos are highly unpredictable at the best of times, and now even more so given the uncertainty injected by Donald Trump's administration.

在深入了解硬币股票的乐观叙述之前，必须指出，主要加密货币在最好的时候是不可预测的，鉴于唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的政府注入了不确定性，现在更是如此。

However, when it comes to COIN stock, a relatively rare technical signal is forming on its price chart. While the Death Cross technical pattern typically implies a bearish signal, I believe in Coinbase's case, the signal can be interpreted counterintuitively.

但是，在硬币库存方面，其价格图表上形成了相对罕见的技术信号。尽管死亡交叉技术模式通常意味着看跌信号，但我相信在Coinbase的情况下，信号可以违反直觉来解释。

On paper, the death cross is a mathematical phenomenon describing a condition where a shorter-running moving average slips beneath a longer-running one. Typically, we're talking about the 50-day moving average dipping below the 200 DMA. This phenomenon symbolizes the possible beginning of a serious downturn or, in the worst-case scenario, an outright bear market.

从表面上看，死亡十字架是一种数学现象，描述了一种较短的移动平均值在较长的情况下滑动的情况。通常，我们谈论的是50天移动平均水平低于200 DMA。这种现象象征着严重的下滑或在最坏的情况下可能是一个彻底的熊市。

Investors and analysts—irrespective of their belief in technical analysis—take note of the death cross for one simple reason: sustained negativity must occur for the death cross to materialize. So, when it flashes, it warrants investigation as to why. Granted, the opinion cycle will have lots to say about Coinbase. From my perspective, the company's financials are tied to the speculative health of the underlying crypto market. When circumstances are buoyant for the blockchain, Coinbase sees stratospheric sales. If not, growth diminishes.

投资者和分析师（对他们对技术分析的信念的意义，请注意死亡十字架，这是一个简单的原因：死亡十字架必须发生持续的消极情绪才能实现。因此，当它闪烁时，它需要调查原因。当然，关于Coinbase的意见周期将有很多话要说。从我的角度来看，公司的财务与基础加密市场的投机性健康有关。当区块链浮力时，Coinbase会看到平流层销售。如果没有，增长会减少。

On a fundamental level, it's risky to bet on COIN stock now. Simply put, outside circumstances are not favorable. However, there is a technical dynamic to consider; people speculate when deflated securities have a chance of bouncing back. This front-running behavior is what makes the death cross significant.

从根本上讲，现在要押注硬币股票是有风险的。简而言之，外部情况不利。但是，有一种技术动态要考虑。人们推测何时放气证券有机会弹跳。这种领先的行为使死亡越来越重要。

Playing the Psychological Game Behind Coinbase

在Coinbase背后玩心理游戏

A deep dive into the key fundamentals would be necessary if one were looking to invest in COIN stock for the long haul. However, in COIN's case, the Death Cross pattern creates a near-term bullish opportunity. COIN's 50 DMA clocks in at $239.50, while the 200 DMA sits at $232.25. That's a gap of just over 3%. Moreover, the signal occurs when COIN stock trades at a long-term support line around the $170 level. Psychologically and technically, traders will be tempted to bite on the apple.

如果人们希望长期投资硬币股票，则需要深入研究关键基本面。但是，就硬币而言，死亡交叉模式创造了近期的看涨机会。硬币的50 dma时钟为239.50美元，而200 dma的价格为232.25美元。这只是超过3％的差距。此外，当硬币股票以170美元左右的长期支持线进行交易时，该信号发生。从心理和技术上来说，交易者将被诱使咬苹果。

Even better, history suggests that going contrarian on the death cross would be a good move. Between January 2022 and September 2024, there have been three death crosses. In each case, COIN stock found itself up one month after the signal flashed. Further, the average return stands at almost 37%.

更好的是，历史表明，违反死亡十字架将是一个好举动。在2022年1月至2024年9月之间，有三个死亡十字架。在每种情况下，硬币库存都在信号闪烁一个月后发现自己。此外，平均收益率几乎为37％。

Three incidences is a small sample size, so there's no significant reassurance that the fourth time will result in an upswing. Death crosses are rare, so extensive sampling sizes will not be forthcoming. Keep in mind that when the death cross flashes, it's possible that the target security has already priced in the causal negativity. That's why the signal offers contrarian value for aggressive traders.

样本量很小，三个发生率是一个很小的样本，因此第四次会导致上升的明显保证。死亡十字架很少见，因此不会出现广泛的抽样大小。请记住，当死亡交叉闪烁时，目标安全可能已经在因果关系中定价。这就是为什么信号为积极交易者提供逆势价值的原因。

Options Strategy Can Take Advantage of COIN's Death Cross

选项策略可以利用硬币的死亡十字架

Now that we understand the playbook, we can plot an options-based strategy. Perhaps sometime this coming week, the death cross will flash for COIN stock. When it does, we will assume that one month later, COIN will move up, perhaps by double-digit percentage points. Let's be conservative and say that COIN will rise by 10%.

现在我们了解了剧本，我们可以绘制基于选项的策略。也许在下一周的某个时候，死亡十字架将闪烁硬币库存。当这样做时，我们将假设一个月后，硬币会以两位数的百分比上升。让我们保守，说硬币将上升10％。

A simple options strategy would be to buy the $180 call for the options chain expiring May 2. Since COIN stock would be projected to land above $191, the $180 call would eventually become deep in the money.

一个简单的选择策略是购买5月2日的期权链的180美元电话。由于硬币股票预计将降落在191美元以上，因此$ 180的电话最终将在这笔款项上变得深入。

Another approach is considering a multi-leg options strategy called the bull call spread. For example, one may look at the 170/190 call spread for the May 2 expiration date. This transaction involves buying the $170 call and selling the $190 call. The proceeds from the short call partially offset the debit paid for the long call.

另一种方法是考虑一种称为公牛呼叫传播的多腿选项策略。例如，可以查看5月2日到期日期的170/190呼叫点差。这项交易涉及购买170美元的电话并出售$ 190的电话。简短电话的收益部分抵消了为长时间拨款支付的借方。

Should COIN stock hit the $190 short strike target at expiration, the trader can earn a maximum payout of almost 65%. Of course, traders can raise the short strike price for

如果硬币股票在到期时达到了190美元的短罢工目标，则交易者可以获得近65％的最高支付。当然，交易者可以提高较短的打击价格