Coinbase Global（Coin）股票即將形成可怕的死亡交叉模式

儘管Coinbase Global（Coin）可能已經開始了一年，但加密貨幣交易所運營商無法克服對技術和數字股票資產的宏觀經濟狀況下沉的情緒。

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) stock may have started the year with great promise, but the cryptocurrency exchange operator couldn't overcome the macroeconomic conditions that are sinking sentiment for tech and digital stocks.

Coinbase（NASDAQ：COIN）的股票可能已經開始了一年，但加密貨幣交易所運營商無法克服對技術和數字股票的情緒下沉的宏觀經濟狀況。

Nasdaq is set to close about 8% lower this week, with further widespread declines expected ahead of this week's "Liberation Day" on Wednesday.

納斯達克本週將關閉約8％，在本週週三的“解放日”之前，預計會進一步下降。

As such, COIN stock has nowhere to go but down—and in doing so, its price action is about to form the dreaded death cross pattern on its daily chart. Counterintuitively, this represents a timely short-term buying opportunity, which is why I'm turning bullish on COIN stock.

因此，硬幣庫存無處可去，但要下降 - 這樣做，其價格動作即將在其日常圖表上形成可怕的死亡交叉模式。違反直覺，這代表了及時的短期購買機會，這就是為什麼我將看漲硬幣股票的看漲。

Setting the Framework for COIN Stock

設置硬幣庫存的框架

Before diving into the optimistic narrative of COIN stock, it's important to note that major cryptos are highly unpredictable at the best of times, and now even more so given the uncertainty injected by Donald Trump's administration.

在深入了解硬幣股票的樂觀敘述之前，必須指出，主要加密貨幣在最好的時候是不可預測的，鑑於唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的政府注入了不確定性，現在更是如此。

However, when it comes to COIN stock, a relatively rare technical signal is forming on its price chart. While the Death Cross technical pattern typically implies a bearish signal, I believe in Coinbase's case, the signal can be interpreted counterintuitively.

但是，在硬幣庫存方面，其價格圖表上形成了相對罕見的技術信號。儘管死亡交叉技術模式通常意味著看跌信號，但我相信在Coinbase的情況下，信號可以違反直覺來解釋。

On paper, the death cross is a mathematical phenomenon describing a condition where a shorter-running moving average slips beneath a longer-running one. Typically, we're talking about the 50-day moving average dipping below the 200 DMA. This phenomenon symbolizes the possible beginning of a serious downturn or, in the worst-case scenario, an outright bear market.

從表面上看，死亡十字架是一種數學現象，描述了一種較短的移動平均值在較長的情況下滑動的情況。通常，我們談論的是50天移動平均水平低於200 DMA。這種現象象徵著嚴重的下滑或在最壞的情況下可能是一個徹底的熊市。

Investors and analysts—irrespective of their belief in technical analysis—take note of the death cross for one simple reason: sustained negativity must occur for the death cross to materialize. So, when it flashes, it warrants investigation as to why. Granted, the opinion cycle will have lots to say about Coinbase. From my perspective, the company's financials are tied to the speculative health of the underlying crypto market. When circumstances are buoyant for the blockchain, Coinbase sees stratospheric sales. If not, growth diminishes.

投資者和分析師（對他們對技術分析的信念的意義，請注意死亡十字架，這是一個簡單的原因：死亡十字架必鬚髮生持續的消極情緒才能實現。因此，當它閃爍時，它需要調查原因。當然，關於Coinbase的意見周期將有很多話要說。從我的角度來看，公司的財務與基礎加密市場的投機性健康有關。當區塊鏈浮力時，Coinbase會看到平流層銷售。如果沒有，增長會減少。

On a fundamental level, it's risky to bet on COIN stock now. Simply put, outside circumstances are not favorable. However, there is a technical dynamic to consider; people speculate when deflated securities have a chance of bouncing back. This front-running behavior is what makes the death cross significant.

從根本上講，現在要押注硬幣股票是有風險的。簡而言之，外部情況不利。但是，有一種技術動態要考慮。人們推測何時放氣證券有機會彈跳。這種領先的行為使死亡越來越重要。

Playing the Psychological Game Behind Coinbase

在Coinbase背後玩心理遊戲

A deep dive into the key fundamentals would be necessary if one were looking to invest in COIN stock for the long haul. However, in COIN's case, the Death Cross pattern creates a near-term bullish opportunity. COIN's 50 DMA clocks in at $239.50, while the 200 DMA sits at $232.25. That's a gap of just over 3%. Moreover, the signal occurs when COIN stock trades at a long-term support line around the $170 level. Psychologically and technically, traders will be tempted to bite on the apple.

如果人們希望長期投資硬幣股票，則需要深入研究關鍵基本面。但是，就硬幣而言，死亡交叉模式創造了近期的看漲機會。硬幣的50 dma時鐘為239.50美元，而200 dma的價格為232.25美元。這只是超過3％的差距。此外，當硬幣股票以170美元左右的長期支持線進行交易時，該信號發生。從心理和技術上來說，交易者將被誘使咬蘋果。

Even better, history suggests that going contrarian on the death cross would be a good move. Between January 2022 and September 2024, there have been three death crosses. In each case, COIN stock found itself up one month after the signal flashed. Further, the average return stands at almost 37%.

更好的是，歷史表明，違反死亡十字架將是一個好舉動。在2022年1月至2024年9月之間，有三個死亡十字架。在每種情況下，硬幣庫存都在信號閃爍一個月後發現自己。此外，平均收益率幾乎為37％。

Three incidences is a small sample size, so there's no significant reassurance that the fourth time will result in an upswing. Death crosses are rare, so extensive sampling sizes will not be forthcoming. Keep in mind that when the death cross flashes, it's possible that the target security has already priced in the causal negativity. That's why the signal offers contrarian value for aggressive traders.

樣本量很小，三個發生率是一個很小的樣本，因此第四次會導致上升的明顯保證。死亡十字架很少見，因此不會出現廣泛的抽樣大小。請記住，當死亡交叉閃爍時，目標安全可能已經在因果關係中定價。這就是為什麼信號為積極交易者提供逆勢價值的原因。

Options Strategy Can Take Advantage of COIN's Death Cross

選項策略可以利用硬幣的死亡十字架

Now that we understand the playbook, we can plot an options-based strategy. Perhaps sometime this coming week, the death cross will flash for COIN stock. When it does, we will assume that one month later, COIN will move up, perhaps by double-digit percentage points. Let's be conservative and say that COIN will rise by 10%.

現在我們了解了劇本，我們可以繪製基於選項的策略。也許在下一周的某個時候，死亡十字架將閃爍硬幣庫存。當這樣做時，我們將假設一個月後，硬幣會以兩位數的百分比上升。讓我們保守，說硬幣將上升10％。

A simple options strategy would be to buy the $180 call for the options chain expiring May 2. Since COIN stock would be projected to land above $191, the $180 call would eventually become deep in the money.

一個簡單的選擇策略是購買5月2日的期權鏈的180美元電話。由於硬幣股票預計將降落在191美元以上，因此$ 180的電話最終將在這筆款項上變得深入。

Another approach is considering a multi-leg options strategy called the bull call spread. For example, one may look at the 170/190 call spread for the May 2 expiration date. This transaction involves buying the $170 call and selling the $190 call. The proceeds from the short call partially offset the debit paid for the long call.

另一種方法是考慮一種稱為公牛呼叫傳播的多腿選項策略。例如，可以查看5月2日到期日期的170/190呼叫點差。這項交易涉及購買170美元的電話並出售$ 190的電話。簡短電話的收益部分抵消了為長時間撥款支付的借方。

Should COIN stock hit the $190 short strike target at expiration, the trader can earn a maximum payout of almost 65%. Of course, traders can raise the short strike price for

如果硬幣股票在到期時達到了190美元的短罷工目標，則交易者可以獲得近65％的最高支付。當然，交易者可以提高較短的打擊價格