为什么 Cathie Wood 认为 10 万美元的比特币很便宜

成长型投资大师 Cathie Wood 对比特币（加密货币：BTC）寄予厚望，这已不是什么秘密。这位方舟投资基金经理在成为家喻户晓之前就开始谈论加密货币，并且最近再次加倍了她的看涨预测。

Cathie Wood, the growth investing guru and Ark Invest fund manager, has a lot to say about Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC). She was talking about crypto before she was a household name, and she's doubled down on her bullish projections again.

成长型投资大师兼 Ark Invest 基金经理 Cathie Wood 对比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）有很多话要说。在她成为家喻户晓的名字之前，她就在谈论加密货币，并且她再次加倍了她的看涨预测。

In a Bloomberg TV interview last Thursday, Wood reiterated a Bitcoin price target of $1.0 to $1.5 million by the year 2030. But that's not the whole story. The cool part of Cathie Wood's Bitcoin coverage is that she keeps explaining her investment thesis in greater detail over time.

在上周四接受彭博电视台采访时，伍德重申了到 2030 年比特币价格目标为 1.0 至 150 万美元。但这并不是故事的全部。 Cathie Wood 的比特币报道最酷的部分是，她随着时间的推移不断更详细地解释她的投资论文。

Last week's interview was no exception. So let's check out Cathie Wood's latest nuggets of Bitcoin-friendly economic theory.

上周的采访也不例外。那么，让我们来看看 Cathie Wood 最新的比特币友好型经济理论要点。

Why Cathie Wood sees Bitcoin as a bargain buy at $100,000

为什么 Cathie Wood 认为 10 万美元的价格是便宜货

First, Wood noted that the probability of reaching her existing Bitcoin price targets has increased in 2024. Institutional investors are finally taking digital assets seriously, thanks to new tools like the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that launched in January. Their Bitcoin investments should make a big difference to the asset's price and stability over the next few years.

首先，伍德指出，2024 年达到现有比特币价格目标的可能性有所增加。得益于 1 月份推出的现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 等新工具，机构投资者终于开始认真对待数字资产。他们的比特币投资应该会对未来几年资产的价格和稳定性产生重大影响。

"[Large investors] must consider an allocation" these days, because there is a hard cap on Bitcoin production in the long run.

如今，“[大投资者]必须考虑进行配置”，因为从长远来看，比特币的产量存在硬性上限。

94.3% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist has already been produced and is sitting in crypto wallets around the world. You can't grab a large slice of the total Bitcoin pie by making or finding more of it as one might do with physical assets such as gold or oil. The iron-fisted law of supply and demand should inevitably drive the price of this limited asset higher, so financial institutions should start building their Bitcoin portfolios before it gets expensive.

未来存在的所有比特币中，94.3% 已经被生产出来并存放在世界各地的加密钱包中。你无法像黄金或石油等实物资产那样通过制造或发现更多比特币来获取比特币的一大块蛋糕。铁腕的供需法则将不可避免地推高这种有限资产的价格，因此金融机构应该在比特币变得昂贵之前开始建立比特币投资组合。

In this context, $100,000 per coin doesn't qualify as "expensive." Remember, the long-term target price is measured in millions of dollars. Cathie Wood is playing the long game here.

在这种情况下，每枚硬币 100,000 美元并不算“昂贵”。请记住，长期目标价格以数百万美元衡量。凯茜·伍德 (Cathie Wood) 正在打一场持久战。

Bitcoin is a valuable accounting tool

比特币是一种有价值的记账工具

Wood also explained that Bitcoin is more than a speculative asset. Rather than the next value-free "tulip bulb craze," Bitcoin is serving a significant purpose for people who aren't just expecting it to gain value over time.

伍德还解释说，比特币不仅仅是一种投机资产。比特币不是下一个无价值的“郁金香球茎热潮”，而是为那些不仅仅期望它随着时间的推移而增值的人们提供了重要的用途。

"It's a global monetary system that is rules-based," she said. "It is private, it is digital, it is decentralized, and it is backed by the largest [computer system] in the world. It's the most secure network in the world."

“这是一个基于规则的全球货币体系，”她说。 “它是私有的、数字化的、去中心化的，并且由世界上最大的[计算机系统]支持。它是世界上最安全的网络。”

Bitcoin is similar to a global and very detailed accounting system that tracks all the gold in the world, assigning an owner to every sliver of a gold nugget and protects the data with several layers of cryptography. You can't cancel or change any transactions or ownership records without essentially breaking Bitcoin's transaction-recording platform. The asset being tracked in this case is not a physical chunk of noble metal, but the computing work that went into generating a unique digital token.

比特币类似于一个全球性的、非常详细的会计系统，可以追踪世界上所有的黄金，为每一块金块分配一个所有者，并通过多层加密来保护数据。在不破坏比特币交易记录平台的情况下，你无法取消或更改任何交易或所有权记录。在这种情况下被跟踪的资产不是贵金属的物理块，而是生成独特数字代币的计算工作。

There is an unknown but very real limit to the amount of physical gold in the world, until entrepreneurs find additional sources on asteroids or other planets. At the same time, there will simply never be more than 21 million Bitcoin tokens, and 19.6 of them are already in circulation. In the long run, this system is almost free from inflation — assuming its security holds up against new attack ideas such as quantum computing algorithms.

世界上实物黄金的数量存在一个未知但非常现实的限制，直到企业家在小行星或其他行星上找到更多来源。与此同时，比特币代币的数量永远不会超过 2100 万个，其中 19.6 个已经在流通。从长远来看，这个系统几乎不会受到通货膨胀的影响——假设它的安全性能够抵御量子计算算法等新的攻击想法。

Bitcoin vs. gold: Different inflation effects

比特币与黄金：不同的通胀影响

Cathie Wood also highlighted how this inflation-proofing approach differs from gold.

凯西·伍德还强调了这种防通胀方法与黄金的不同之处。

"When the gold price goes up, production goes up — the rate of increase in the supply goes up," she said. "That cannot happen with Bitcoin. It is mathematically metered to go up 0.9% per year for the next four years, and then the supply growth will be cut in half again."

“当金价上涨时，产量就会增加——供应的增长率就会上升，”她说。 “比特币不会发生这种情况。按照数学计算，未来四年，比特币每年上涨 0.9%，然后供应增长将再次减少一半。”

Indeed, physical gold mining tends to become more common when the metal's price is high. Miners want to take advantage of this valuable asset when it makes the most economic sense. The equation is different for Bitcoin miners, who will produce smaller and smaller chunks of the digital asset over time. So the cost of minting new Bitcoins will increase while the number of new coins introduced to the market slows down.

事实上，当金属价格较高时，实物金矿开采往往会变得更加普遍。矿工希望在最具有经济意义的时候利用这一宝贵的资产。对于比特币矿工来说，情况有所不同，随着时间的推移，他们将生产出越来越小的数字资产。因此，铸造新比特币的成本将会增加，而引入市场的新比特币数量将会放缓。

So it's smarter to put in a maximum production effort as quickly as possible, because the return on your mining machinery and electric power investment will only shrink over the years. The same logic suggests that buying Bitcoin early will be more profitable in the long run. Waiting for a lower buy-in price or easier Bitcoin mining environment almost never makes sense.

因此，明智的做法是尽快投入最大的生产努力，因为采矿机械和电力投资的回报多年来只会减少。同样的逻辑表明，从长远来看，尽早购买比特币会更有利可图。等待更低的买入价格或更容易的比特币挖矿环境几乎没有意义。

Why Bitcoin may deserve a spot in your portfolio

为什么比特币值得在您的投资组合中占有一席之地

So Cathie Wood underscored her 5-year Bitcoin target of at least $1 million per coin, and she offered more detail on her underlying investment thesis.

因此，Cathie Wood 强调了她的 5 年比特币目标是每枚比特币至少 100 万美元，并提供了有关她的基本投资论文的更多细节。

Other Bitcoin investors may work with different assumptions that result in various target prices, but the overall market tenor is pretty consistent. Bitcoin

其他比特币投资者可能会采用不同的假设，从而导致不同的目标价格，但总体市场趋势相当一致。比特币