為什麼 Cathie Wood 認為 10 萬美元的比特幣很便宜

成長型投資大師 Cathie Wood 對比特幣（加密貨幣：BTC）寄予厚望，這已不是什麼秘密。這位 Ark Invest 基金經理在成為家喻戶曉之前就開始談論加密貨幣，最近再次加倍了她的看漲預測。

Cathie Wood, the growth investing guru and Ark Invest fund manager, has a lot to say about Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC). She was talking about crypto before she was a household name, and she's doubled down on her bullish projections again.

成長型投資大師兼 Ark Invest 基金經理 Cathie Wood 對比特幣（CRYPTO：BTC）有很多話要說。在她成為家喻戶曉的名字之前，她就在談論加密貨幣，並且她再次加倍了她的看漲預測。

In a Bloomberg TV interview last Thursday, Wood reiterated a Bitcoin price target of $1.0 to $1.5 million by the year 2030. But that's not the whole story. The cool part of Cathie Wood's Bitcoin coverage is that she keeps explaining her investment thesis in greater detail over time.

在上週四接受彭博電視台採訪時，伍德重申了到 2030 年比特幣價格目標為 100 至 150 萬美元。 Cathie Wood 的比特幣報導最酷的部分是，她隨著時間的推移不斷更詳細地解釋她的投資論文。

Last week's interview was no exception. So let's check out Cathie Wood's latest nuggets of Bitcoin-friendly economic theory.

上週的訪談也不例外。那麼，讓我們來看看 Cathie Wood 最新的比特幣友善經濟理論要點。

Why Cathie Wood sees Bitcoin as a bargain buy at $100,000

為什麼 Cathie Wood 認為 10 萬美元的價格是便宜貨

First, Wood noted that the probability of reaching her existing Bitcoin price targets has increased in 2024. Institutional investors are finally taking digital assets seriously, thanks to new tools like the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that launched in January. Their Bitcoin investments should make a big difference to the asset's price and stability over the next few years.

首先，伍德指出，2024 年達到現有比特幣價格目標的可能性增加。資產。他們的比特幣投資應該會對未來幾年資產的價格和穩定性產生重大影響。

"[Large investors] must consider an allocation" these days, because there is a hard cap on Bitcoin production in the long run.

如今，“[大投資者]必須考慮進行配置”，因為從長遠來看，比特幣的產量存在硬性上限。

94.3% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist has already been produced and is sitting in crypto wallets around the world. You can't grab a large slice of the total Bitcoin pie by making or finding more of it as one might do with physical assets such as gold or oil. The iron-fisted law of supply and demand should inevitably drive the price of this limited asset higher, so financial institutions should start building their Bitcoin portfolios before it gets expensive.

94.3% 的比特幣已經被生產出來並存放在世界各地的加密錢包中。你無法像黃金或石油等實體資產那樣透過製造或發現更多比特幣來獲取比特幣的一大塊蛋糕。鐵腕的供需法則將不可避免地推高這種有限資產的價格，因此金融機構應該在比特幣變得昂貴之前開始建立比特幣投資組合。

In this context, $100,000 per coin doesn't qualify as "expensive." Remember, the long-term target price is measured in millions of dollars. Cathie Wood is playing the long game here.

在這種情況下，每枚硬幣 100,000 美元並不算「昂貴」。請記住，長期目標價格以數百萬美元衡量。凱茜伍德 (Cathie Wood) 正在打一場持久戰。

Bitcoin is a valuable accounting tool

比特幣是一種有價值的記帳工具

Wood also explained that Bitcoin is more than a speculative asset. Rather than the next value-free "tulip bulb craze," Bitcoin is serving a significant purpose for people who aren't just expecting it to gain value over time.

伍德還解釋說，比特幣不僅僅是一種投機資產。比特幣不是下一個無價值的“鬱金香球莖熱潮”，而是為那些不僅僅期望它隨著時間的推移而獲得價值的人們提供了重要的用途。

"It's a global monetary system that is rules-based," she said. "It is private, it is digital, it is decentralized, and it is backed by the largest [computer system] in the world. It's the most secure network in the world."

「這是一個基於規則的全球貨幣體系，」她說。 “它是私有的、數位化的、去中心化的，並且由世界上最大的[電腦系統]支援。它是世界上最安全的網路。”

Bitcoin is similar to a global and very detailed accounting system that tracks all the gold in the world, assigning an owner to every sliver of a gold nugget and protects the data with several layers of cryptography. You can't cancel or change any transactions or ownership records without essentially breaking Bitcoin's transaction-recording platform. The asset being tracked in this case is not a physical chunk of noble metal, but the computing work that went into generating a unique digital token.

比特幣類似於一個全球性的、非常詳細的會計系統，可以追蹤世界上所有的黃金，為每一塊金塊分配一個所有者，並透過多層加密來保護資料。在不破壞比特幣交易記錄平台的情況下，你無法取消或更改任何交易或所有權記錄。在這種情況下被追蹤的資產不是貴金屬的實體區塊，而是產生獨特數位代幣的計算工作。

There is an unknown but very real limit to the amount of physical gold in the world, until entrepreneurs find additional sources on asteroids or other planets. At the same time, there will simply never be more than 21 million Bitcoin tokens, and 19.6 of them are already in circulation. In the long run, this system is almost free from inflation — assuming its security holds up against new attack ideas such as quantum computing algorithms.

世界上的實體黃金數量有一個未知但非常現實的限制，直到創業家在小行星或其他行星上找到更多來源。同時，比特幣代幣的數量永遠不會超過 2,100 萬個，其中 19.6 個已經在流通。從長遠來看，這個系統幾乎不會受到通貨膨脹的影響——假設它的安全性能夠抵禦量子計算演算法等新的攻擊想法。

Bitcoin vs. gold: Different inflation effects

比特幣與黃金：不同的通膨影響

Cathie Wood also highlighted how this inflation-proofing approach differs from gold.

凱西·伍德也強調了這種防通膨方法與黃金的不同之處。

"When the gold price goes up, production goes up — the rate of increase in the supply goes up," she said. "That cannot happen with Bitcoin. It is mathematically metered to go up 0.9% per year for the next four years, and then the supply growth will be cut in half again."

「當金價​​上漲時，產量就會增加——供應的成長率就會上升，」她說。 “比特幣不會發生這種情況。按照數學計算，未來四年，比特幣每年上漲 0.9%，然後供應增長將再次減少一半。”

Indeed, physical gold mining tends to become more common when the metal's price is high. Miners want to take advantage of this valuable asset when it makes the most economic sense. The equation is different for Bitcoin miners, who will produce smaller and smaller chunks of the digital asset over time. So the cost of minting new Bitcoins will increase while the number of new coins introduced to the market slows down.

事實上，當金屬價格較高時，實體金礦開採往往會變得更加普遍。礦工希望在最具有經濟意義的時候利用這項寶貴的資產。對於比特幣礦工來說，情況有所不同，隨著時間的推移，他們會生產出越來越小的數位資產。因此，鑄造新比特幣的成本將會增加，而引入市場的新比特幣數量將會放緩。

So it's smarter to put in a maximum production effort as quickly as possible, because the return on your mining machinery and electric power investment will only shrink over the years. The same logic suggests that buying Bitcoin early will be more profitable in the long run. Waiting for a lower buy-in price or easier Bitcoin mining environment almost never makes sense.

因此，明智的做法是盡快投入最大的生產努力，因為採礦機械和電力投資的回報多年來只會減少。同樣的邏輯表明，從長遠來看，儘早購買比特幣會更有利可圖。等待更低的買入價格或更容易的比特幣挖礦環境幾乎沒有意義。

Why Bitcoin may deserve a spot in your portfolio

為什麼比特幣值得在您的投資組合中佔有一席之地

So Cathie Wood underscored her 5-year Bitcoin target of at least $1 million per coin, and she offered more detail on her underlying investment thesis.

因此，Cathie Wood 強調了她的 5 年比特幣目標是每枚比特幣至少 100 萬美元，並提供了更多關於她的基本投資論文的細節。

Other Bitcoin investors may work with different assumptions that result in various target prices, but the overall market tenor is pretty consistent. Bitcoin

其他比特幣投資者可能會採用不同的假設，從而導致不同的目標價格，但整體市場趨勢相當一致。比特幣