尽管多次尝试突破，卡尔达诺（ADA）仍面临重大阻力

尽管多次尝试突破，但卡尔达诺（ADA）大幅反弹的前景受到了巨大打击。

Cardano’s (ADA) prospects for a significant rebound have been dealt a huge blow despite multiple breakout attempts. This development is highlighted by several Cardano on-chain metrics as the altcoin hovers between $0.34 and $0.36.

尽管多次尝试突破，但卡尔达诺（ADA）大幅反弹的前景受到了巨大打击。随着山寨币徘徊在 0.34 美元至 0.36 美元之间，卡尔达诺的多项链上指标凸显了这一发展。

While ADA holders may be hoping for some relief, this on-chain analysis suggests that investors might need to lower their expectations. Here’s why.

虽然 ADA 持有者可能希望得到一些缓解，但这一链上分析表明投资者可能需要降低预期。原因如下。

Cardano Faces Significant Resistance

卡尔达诺面临重大阻力

One of the key Cardano on-chain metrics suggesting a potential pullback is the In/Out of Money Around Price (IOMAP). The IOMAP categorizes addresses based on whether their on-chain cost basis is below the current value of ADA.

表明潜在回调的关键卡尔达诺链上指标之一是围绕价格的资金进/出（IOMAP）。 IOMAP 根据地址的链上成本基础是否低于 ADA 的当前价值对地址进行分类。

This metric provides insights into addresses holding tokens purchased at higher values, those at breakeven, and helps identify support and resistance zones—where larger clusters indicate stronger support or resistance.

该指标提供了对持有以较高价值购买的代币（即处于盈亏平衡状态）的地址的洞察，并有助于识别支撑和阻力区域——其中较大的集群表明更强的支撑或阻力。

According to BeInCrypto, over 260,000 Cardano addresses acquired 6.68 billion ADA within the $0.34 to $0.36 range. At an average price of $0.34, these holdings are worth around $2.77 billion, making them more substantial than addresses currently in profit.

根据 BeInCrypto 的数据，超过 260,000 个卡尔达诺地址以 0.34 至 0.36 美元的价格购买了 66.8 亿枚 ADA。以 0.34 美元的平均价格计算，这些资产的价值约为 27.7 亿美元，比目前盈利的地址更庞大。

Given this position, Cardano’s price might struggle to break through this range. This is because holders currently “out of the money” might seek to break even, potentially keeping ADA’s price below its current level.

鉴于这个位置，卡尔达诺的价格可能很难突破这个范围。这是因为目前“资金不足”的持有者可能会寻求收支平衡，从而有可能使 ADA 的价格低于当前水平。

Beyond this, short-term holders are another reason the price might drop, as these Cardano on-chain metrics show.

除此之外，正如这些卡尔达诺链上指标所示，短期持有者是价格可能下跌的另一个原因。

Specifically, the Balance by Time Held metric, which indicates how long investors have held a token, reveals that those who acquired ADA within the last 30 days to 12 months have been selling. If this trend continues, ADA’s price could face significant downward pressure.

具体来说，按持有时间划分的余额指标（表明投资者持有代币的时间）显示，那些在过去 30 天到 12 个月内购买 ADA 的人一直在抛售。如果这种趋势持续下去，ADA 的价格可能面临巨大的下行压力。

ADA Price Prediction: No Gains Yet

ADA 价格预测：尚未上涨

On the daily chart, ADA has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern. This pattern indicates a reversal from bullish to bearish, signaling that an upward trend may be approaching its end.

日线图上，ADA 已形成头肩形态。该形态表明从看涨转向看跌，表明上升趋势可能即将结束。

Confirmation of the bearish pattern occurs when the crypto involved breaks below the neckline. As seen below, the neckline of the pattern is around $0.34, and ADA has dropped below the region. Should this remain the same, then ADA’s price might decline by another 6%, possibly taking it down to $0.32.

当涉及的加密货币跌破颈线时，就会确认看跌模式。如下图所示，该形态的颈线约为 0.34 美元，ADA 已跌破该区域。如果保持不变，那么 ADA 的价格可能会再下跌 6%，可能降至 0.32 美元。

On the other hand, Cardano’s value might rebound if bulls defend the $0.34 support and demand for future purchases is higher than the $2 billion resistance. If that happens, then ADA might jump to $0.42.

另一方面，如果多头守住 0.34 美元的支撑位并且未来购买的需求高于 20 亿美元的阻力位，卡尔达诺的价值可能会反弹。如果发生这种情况，那么 ADA 可能会跃升至 0.42 美元。