儘管多次嘗試突破，卡爾達諾（ADA）仍面臨重大阻力

儘管多次嘗試突破，但卡爾達諾（ADA）大幅反彈的前景受到了巨大打擊。

Cardano’s (ADA) prospects for a significant rebound have been dealt a huge blow despite multiple breakout attempts. This development is highlighted by several Cardano on-chain metrics as the altcoin hovers between $0.34 and $0.36.

儘管多次嘗試突破，但卡爾達諾（ADA）大幅反彈的前景受到了巨大打擊。隨著山寨幣徘徊在 0.34 美元至 0.36 美元之間，卡爾達諾的多項鏈上指標凸顯了這一發展。

While ADA holders may be hoping for some relief, this on-chain analysis suggests that investors might need to lower their expectations. Here’s why.

雖然 ADA 持有者可能希望得到一些緩解，但這一鏈上分析表明投資者可能需要降低預期。原因如下。

Cardano Faces Significant Resistance

卡爾達諾面臨重大阻力

One of the key Cardano on-chain metrics suggesting a potential pullback is the In/Out of Money Around Price (IOMAP). The IOMAP categorizes addresses based on whether their on-chain cost basis is below the current value of ADA.

顯示潛在回調的關鍵卡爾達諾鏈上指標之一是圍繞價格的資金進/出（IOMAP）。 IOMAP 根據地址的鏈上成本基礎是否低於 ADA 的當前價值對地址進行分類。

This metric provides insights into addresses holding tokens purchased at higher values, those at breakeven, and helps identify support and resistance zones—where larger clusters indicate stronger support or resistance.

該指標提供了對持有以較高價值購買的代幣（即處於盈虧平衡狀態）的地址的洞察，並有助於識別支撐和阻力區域——其中較大的集群表明更強的支撐或阻力。

According to BeInCrypto, over 260,000 Cardano addresses acquired 6.68 billion ADA within the $0.34 to $0.36 range. At an average price of $0.34, these holdings are worth around $2.77 billion, making them more substantial than addresses currently in profit.

根據 BeInCrypto 的數據，超過 260,000 個卡爾達諾地址以 0.34 至 0.36 美元的價格購買了 66.8 億枚 ADA。以 0.34 美元的平均價格計算，這些資產的價值約為 27.7 億美元，比目前獲利的地址更龐大。

Given this position, Cardano’s price might struggle to break through this range. This is because holders currently “out of the money” might seek to break even, potentially keeping ADA’s price below its current level.

鑑於這個位置，卡爾達諾的價格可能很難突破這個範圍。這是因為目前「資金不足」的持有者可能會尋求收支平衡，從而有可能使 ADA 的價格低於當前水平。

Beyond this, short-term holders are another reason the price might drop, as these Cardano on-chain metrics show.

除此之外，正如這些卡爾達諾鏈上指標所示，短期持有者是價格可能下跌的另一個原因。

Specifically, the Balance by Time Held metric, which indicates how long investors have held a token, reveals that those who acquired ADA within the last 30 days to 12 months have been selling. If this trend continues, ADA’s price could face significant downward pressure.

具體來說，按持有時間劃分的餘額指標（表明投資者持有代幣的時間）顯示，那些在過去 30 天到 12 個月內購買 ADA 的人一直在拋售。如果這種趨勢持續下去，ADA 的價格可能會面臨巨大的下行壓力。

ADA Price Prediction: No Gains Yet

ADA 價格預測：尚未上漲

On the daily chart, ADA has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern. This pattern indicates a reversal from bullish to bearish, signaling that an upward trend may be approaching its end.

日線圖上，ADA 已形成頭肩形態。該形態顯示從看漲轉向看跌，表明上升趨勢可能即將結束。

Confirmation of the bearish pattern occurs when the crypto involved breaks below the neckline. As seen below, the neckline of the pattern is around $0.34, and ADA has dropped below the region. Should this remain the same, then ADA’s price might decline by another 6%, possibly taking it down to $0.32.

當涉及的加密貨幣跌破頸線時，就會確認看跌模式。如下圖所示，該形態的頸線約為 0.34 美元，ADA 已跌破該區域。如果保持不變，那麼 ADA 的價格可能會再下跌 6%，可能會降至 0.32 美元。

On the other hand, Cardano’s value might rebound if bulls defend the $0.34 support and demand for future purchases is higher than the $2 billion resistance. If that happens, then ADA might jump to $0.42.

另一方面，如果多頭守住 0.34 美元的支撐位並且未來購買的需求高於 20 億美元的阻力位，卡爾達諾的價值可能會反彈。如果發生這種情況，那麼 ADA 可能會躍升至 0.42 美元。