加拿大10月经济增长0.3%超出市场预期

渥太华（路透社）——周一的数据显示，在石油和天然气开采和制造业增长的带动下，加拿大经济 10 月份增长 0.3%，超出市场预期，但 11 月份国内生产总值可能出现萎缩。

Canada's economy grew more than expected in October, expanding by 0.3% as oil and gas extraction and manufacturing drove gains, but gross domestic product likely contracted in November, data showed on Monday.

周一的数据显示，由于石油和天然气开采以及制造业的推动，加拿大10月份经济增长超出预期，增长了0.3%，但11月份国内生产总值可能出现萎缩。

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.2% month-over-month rise in October. September's growth rate was upwardly revised to 0.2% from an initial report of 0.1%, Statistics Canada (Statscan) data showed.

路透社调查的分析师此前预测 10 月份环比增长 0.2%。加拿大统计局(Statscan)的数据显示，9月份的增长率从最初报告的0.1%上调至0.2%。

The stronger than expected start to the fourth quarter and the upward revision to September's growth rate could assuage some concerns about Canada's economy.

第四季度开局强于预期以及对 9 月份增长率的上修可能会缓解对加拿大经济的一些担忧。

Growth in the third quarter missed the Bank of Canada's (BoC) forecast and the central bank said earlier this month that data suggested the economy may underperform its expectation in the last three months of 2024.

第三季度的增长低于加拿大央行 (BoC) 的预测，央行本月早些时候表示，数据显示 2024 年最后三个月的经济表现可能不及预期。

In a preliminary estimate for November, Statscan said GDP likely decreased by 0.1% as declines in sectors including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction and transportation and warehousing were partially offset by increases in accommodation and food services and real estate and rental and leasing.

Statscan在对11月份的初步估计中表示，GDP可能下降0.1%，因为采矿、采石、石油和天然气开采以及运输和仓储等行业的下降被住宿和食品服务以及房地产和租赁等行业的增长部分抵消。

If November's forecast is confirmed and GDP remains unchanged in December, the economy would fall short of the BoC's 2% growth projection for the fourth quarter.

如果 11 月份的预测得到证实，并且 12 月份 GDP 保持不变，那么经济将低于加拿大央行第四季度 2% 的增长预测。

Growth in October was driven a rebound in the goods-producing industry, which rose 0.9% in October after shrinking for four consecutive months, Statistics Canada (Statscan) data showed. The services-producing industries edged up 0.1%.

加拿大统计局(Statscan)的数据显示，10月份的增长是由商品生产行业的反弹推动的，该行业在连续四个月萎缩后，10月份增长了0.9%。服务业小幅增长 0.1%。

Within the goods-producing industry, the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector expanded 2.4% after three straight months of declines, Statscan data showed.

Statscan 数据显示，在商品生产行业中，采矿、采石以及石油和天然气开采行业在连续三个月下降后增长了 2.4%。

Manufacturing rose 0.3% in October driven by an increase in non-durable goods manufacturing.

受非耐用品制造业增长的推动，10 月份制造业增长 0.3%。

The central bank, in part to help address slower growth, lowered its key policy rate by 50 basis points to 3.25% earlier in December and indicated further reductions would be more gradual. The bank will release fresh forecasts along with its next rate decision on Jan. 29, before Statscan's next GDP report.

央行在 12 月初将关键政策利率下调 50 个基点至 3.25%，部分是为了帮助应对增长放缓的问题，并表示进一步降息将更加渐进。该银行将于 1 月 29 日、Statscan 发布下一份 GDP 报告之前发布新的预测以及下一次利率决定。

The BoC has cumulatively slashed interest rates by 175 bps since June as inflation returned to target, and money markets see a roughly 50% chance of 25 bps cut in January.

随着通胀回归目标，加拿大央行自 6 月份以来已累计降息 175 个基点，货币市场预计 1 月份降息 25 个基点的可能性约为 50%。