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萨尔瓦多的比特币历史有一个不祥的开端。 2022 年 3 月,距离总统纳伊布·布克莱 (Nayib Bukele) 宣布比特币法定货币法不到一年
El Salvador made history in March 2022 when it became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. The move was met with fanfare by some and skepticism by others, but it has undoubtedly put the Central American nation on the world map.
萨尔瓦多于 2022 年 3 月创造了历史,成为第一个采用比特币作为法定货币的国家。此举遭到了一些人的大肆宣传和另一些人的怀疑,但毫无疑问,它使这个中美洲国家出现在世界地图上。
One year on, let’s take stock of El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment and what it might portend for the future of money and geopolitics.
一年过去了,让我们回顾一下萨尔瓦多的比特币实验,以及它对货币和地缘政治的未来可能预示的事情。
A Violent Beginning
暴力的开始
El Salvador’s Bitcoin story had an ominous beginning. Less than a year after President Nayib Bukele announced the Bitcoin legal tender law, gang violence erupted, resulting in 87 murders in a single weekend.
萨尔瓦多的比特币故事有一个不祥的开端。总统纳伊布·布克莱 (Nayib Bukele) 宣布比特币法定货币法后不到一年,帮派暴力事件爆发,单周末就造成 87 起谋杀案。
One victim, a local surf instructor with no known gang affiliations, was found with hands and feet bound on the highway to the Bitcoin Beach. He had been shot in the head. It was a message about Bukele’s vision of the future.
一名受害者是当地一名冲浪教练,没有已知的帮派关系,他被发现手脚被绑在通往比特币海滩的高速公路上。他头部中弹。这是关于布克莱对未来的愿景的信息。
Bukele declared an emergency, suspended the constitution, and incarcerated the country’s gangs. Bukele’s El Salvador has since become the safest country in Latin America.
布克莱宣布进入紧急状态,暂停宪法,并监禁该国的帮派。布克莱的萨尔瓦多从此成为拉丁美洲最安全的国家。
A PR Stunt?
公关噱头?
Bukele does not, however, view his Bitcoin experiment as much as a resounding success as his security efforts, telling TIME that Bitcoin “has not had the widespread adoption we hoped.”
然而,布克莱并不认为他的比特币实验像他的安全努力一样取得了巨大成功,他告诉《时代》杂志,比特币“尚未得到我们希望的广泛采用”。
He still calls Bitcoin adoption a “net positive,” and acknowledges that risks about which the IMF warned have not come to fruition. Yet, he portrays Bitcoin adoption as mostly part of a marketing campaign.
他仍然称比特币的采用是“净积极的”,并承认国际货币基金组织警告的风险尚未实现。然而,他将比特币的采用主要描述为营销活动的一部分。
He adds: “I’m not going to say it’s the currency of the future, but there’s a lot of future in that currency.”
他补充道:“我不会说它是未来的货币,但这种货币有很大的未来。”
It’s not only Bukele who says Bitcoin adoption was a PR stunt. “We call it the Great Rebranding. It was genius,” says Damian Merlo, a Miami-based lobbyist. “We could have paid millions to a PR firm to rebrand El Salvador. Instead, we just adopted Bitcoin.”
不仅仅是布克莱认为比特币的采用是一种公关噱头。 “我们称之为伟大的品牌重塑。这是天才,”迈阿密说客达米安·梅洛 (Damian Merlo) 说道。 “我们本可以向一家公关公司支付数百万美元来重塑萨尔瓦多的品牌。相反,我们只是采用了比特币。”
Whether or not Bukele unwittingly or wittingly introduced a Trojan horse into the global monetary system is irrelevant.
布克莱是否有意或无意地将特洛伊木马引入全球货币体系都无关紧要。
Perhaps Bukele has not fully wrapped his head around the mathematics behind Bitcoin nor the historical implications of his decision, as a head of state, to adopt stateless money—with no need for a central bank—into a world made dependent on central banking over the centuries.
也许布克莱还没有完全理解比特币背后的数学原理,也没有完全理解他作为国家元首决定采用无国籍货币(不需要中央银行)的历史影响,这个世界在整个世界上都依赖中央银行。几个世纪。
A Peaceful Revolution
和平革命
The revolutionary transformation now underway thanks in part to El Salvador’s Bitcoin law will take time to play out.
目前正在进行的革命性转变在一定程度上要归功于萨尔瓦多的比特币法,但这种转变需要时间才能发挥作用。
In general, when a country switches from an old currency to new currency it is out of necessity. There might be, for example, a hyperinflationary event forcing the government to introduce a new currency.
一般来说,当一个国家从旧货币转向新货币时,这是出于必要。例如,可能会出现恶性通货膨胀事件,迫使政府推出新货币。
The hyperinflation creates an incentive to exit the rapidly depreciating currency into the new currency. At present, the US Dollar, which El Salvador has used as its national currency since 2001, does not face the crisis-level hyperinflation needed for Salvadorans to radically depart from fiat to Bitcoin.
恶性通货膨胀刺激人们将快速贬值的货币换成新货币。目前,萨尔瓦多自 2001 年以来一直使用的美元并没有面临萨尔瓦多人彻底放弃法定货币而转向比特币所需的危机级别的恶性通货膨胀。
Furthermore, Salvadorans have spent decades under the thumb of central banking. The country’s central bank was established in 1934 and was at first a private entity until it was nationalized.
此外,萨尔瓦多人已经在中央银行的控制下度过了数十年。该国中央银行成立于 1934 年,最初是一个私人实体,直到被国有化。
Switching from a fiat currency like the dollar to Bitcoin is the equivalent of a blood transfusion for the entire society. Patience is a virtue in such a context.
从美元等法定货币转向比特币对于整个社会来说相当于输血。在这种情况下,耐心是一种美德。
Double Down On Bitcoin
加倍押注比特币
El Salvador is still among the poorest in the Western Hemisphere. Foreign investors and creditors are not always happy with his policies.
萨尔瓦多仍然是西半球最贫穷的国家之一。外国投资者和债权人并不总是对他的政策感到满意。
A quarter of the country remains impoverished, with remittances from abroad equating to 20% of GDP. Whether or not the IMF will grant El Salvador access to international markets to finance its debt in the wake of the Bitcoin law, and questions over his administration’s fiscal transparency, remains to be seen. Luckily, Bukele has already adopted the solution to these complaints.
该国四分之一的地区仍然贫困,来自国外的汇款相当于 GDP 的 20%。在比特币法出台后,国际货币基金组织是否会允许萨尔瓦多进入国际市场为其债务融资,以及对其政府财政透明度的质疑,仍有待观察。幸运的是,布克莱已经针对这些投诉采取了解决方案。
Van Eck, one of the world’s largest asset managers, conjectured that Bitcoin could reach $52 million dollars per coin. Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, foresees Bitcoin potentially reaching $49 million by 2045. They are not the only ones to make seven and eight figure Bitcoin price predictions.
全球最大的资产管理公司之一范艾克 (Van Eck) 推测,比特币每枚硬币的价值可能达到 5200 万美元。 MicroStrategy 首席执行官 Michael Saylor 预计,到 2045 年,比特币的价格可能会达到 4900 万美元。他们并不是唯一做出七位数和八位数比特币价格预测的人。
Does Bukele understand the implications for El Salvador if Bitcoin achieves even a fraction of such price gains?
如果比特币的价格涨幅只是其中一小部分,布克莱是否理解对萨尔瓦多的影响?
Unless his blasé attitude towards Bitcoin adoption is a game of 4D chess, it appears that no, Bukele does not know what he has done.
除非他对比特币采用的漠不关心的态度是一场 4D 象棋游戏,否则布克莱似乎不知道自己做了什么。
No other country has the awareness about Bitcoin as Salvadorans—it is the number one country for “Bitcoin” search volume on Google Trends.
没有其他国家比萨尔瓦多人更了解比特币——它是谷歌趋势上“比特币”搜索量第一的国家。
Therefore, no other country is as prepared for de-dollarization and the future as El Salvador, except maybe Bhutan, which was revealed to hold more Bitcoin than El Salvador. The Buddhist nation in between China and India, however, has not implemented a legal tender law.
因此,没有哪个国家像萨尔瓦多那样为去美元化和未来做好了准备,也许除了不丹,据透露,不丹持有的比特币比萨尔瓦多多。然而,位于中国和印度之间的佛教国家尚未实施法定货币法。
But, the extent of Bukele’s revolution doesn’t end there. In a fiat currency regime, central banks print ad nauseam and
但是,布克莱的革命程度并没有就此结束。在法定货币制度下,央行印钞令人作呕,
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