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薩爾瓦多的比特幣歷史有一個不祥的開始。 2022 年 3 月,距離總統納伊布·布克萊 (Nayib Bukele) 宣布比特幣法定貨幣法不到一年
El Salvador made history in March 2022 when it became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. The move was met with fanfare by some and skepticism by others, but it has undoubtedly put the Central American nation on the world map.
薩爾瓦多於 2022 年 3 月創造了歷史,成為第一個採用比特幣作為法定貨幣的國家。此舉遭到了一些人的大肆宣傳和另一些人的懷疑,但毫無疑問,它使這個中美洲國家出現在世界地圖上。
One year on, let’s take stock of El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment and what it might portend for the future of money and geopolitics.
一年過去了,讓我們回顧一下薩爾瓦多的比特幣實驗,以及它對貨幣和地緣政治的未來可能預示的事情。
A Violent Beginning
暴力的開始
El Salvador’s Bitcoin story had an ominous beginning. Less than a year after President Nayib Bukele announced the Bitcoin legal tender law, gang violence erupted, resulting in 87 murders in a single weekend.
薩爾瓦多的比特幣故事有一個不祥的開始。總統納伊布·布克萊 (Nayib Bukele) 宣布比特幣法定貨幣法不到一年,幫派暴力事件爆發,單週末就造成 87 起謀殺案。
One victim, a local surf instructor with no known gang affiliations, was found with hands and feet bound on the highway to the Bitcoin Beach. He had been shot in the head. It was a message about Bukele’s vision of the future.
一名受害者是當地衝浪教練,沒有已知的幫派關係,他被發現手腳被綁在通往比特幣海灘的高速公路上。他頭部中彈。這是關於布克萊對未來的願景的訊息。
Bukele declared an emergency, suspended the constitution, and incarcerated the country’s gangs. Bukele’s El Salvador has since become the safest country in Latin America.
布克萊宣布進入緊急狀態,暫停憲法,並監禁該國的幫派。布克萊的薩爾瓦多從此成為拉丁美洲最安全的國家。
A PR Stunt?
公關噱頭?
Bukele does not, however, view his Bitcoin experiment as much as a resounding success as his security efforts, telling TIME that Bitcoin “has not had the widespread adoption we hoped.”
然而,布克萊並不認為他的比特幣實驗像他的安全努力一樣取得了巨大成功,他告訴《時代》雜誌,比特幣「尚未得到我們希望的廣泛採用」。
He still calls Bitcoin adoption a “net positive,” and acknowledges that risks about which the IMF warned have not come to fruition. Yet, he portrays Bitcoin adoption as mostly part of a marketing campaign.
他仍然稱比特幣的採用是“淨積極的”,並承認國際貨幣基金組織警告的風險尚未實現。然而,他將比特幣的採用主要描述為行銷活動的一部分。
He adds: “I’m not going to say it’s the currency of the future, but there’s a lot of future in that currency.”
他補充說:“我不會說它是未來的貨幣,但這種貨幣有很大的未來。”
It’s not only Bukele who says Bitcoin adoption was a PR stunt. “We call it the Great Rebranding. It was genius,” says Damian Merlo, a Miami-based lobbyist. “We could have paid millions to a PR firm to rebrand El Salvador. Instead, we just adopted Bitcoin.”
不只是布克萊認為比特幣的採用是一種公關噱頭。 “我們稱之為偉大的品牌重塑。這是天才,」邁阿密說客達米安梅洛 (Damian Merlo) 說道。 「我們本可以向公關公司支付數百萬美元來重塑薩爾瓦多的品牌。相反,我們只是採用了比特幣。
Whether or not Bukele unwittingly or wittingly introduced a Trojan horse into the global monetary system is irrelevant.
布克萊是否有意或無意地將特洛伊木馬引入全球貨幣體係都無關緊要。
Perhaps Bukele has not fully wrapped his head around the mathematics behind Bitcoin nor the historical implications of his decision, as a head of state, to adopt stateless money—with no need for a central bank—into a world made dependent on central banking over the centuries.
也許布克萊還沒有完全理解比特幣背後的數學原理,也沒有完全理解他作為國家元首決定採用無國籍貨幣(不需要中央銀行)的歷史影響,這個世界在整個世界上都依賴中央銀行。個世紀。
A Peaceful Revolution
和平革命
The revolutionary transformation now underway thanks in part to El Salvador’s Bitcoin law will take time to play out.
目前正在進行的革命性轉變在一定程度上要歸功於薩爾瓦多的比特幣法,但這種轉變需要時間才能發揮作用。
In general, when a country switches from an old currency to new currency it is out of necessity. There might be, for example, a hyperinflationary event forcing the government to introduce a new currency.
一般來說,當一個國家從舊貨幣轉向新貨幣時,這是出於必要。例如,可能會出現惡性通貨膨脹事件,迫使政府推出新貨幣。
The hyperinflation creates an incentive to exit the rapidly depreciating currency into the new currency. At present, the US Dollar, which El Salvador has used as its national currency since 2001, does not face the crisis-level hyperinflation needed for Salvadorans to radically depart from fiat to Bitcoin.
惡性通貨膨脹刺激人們將快速貶值的貨幣換成新貨幣。薩爾瓦多自 2001 年以來一直使用美元作為其本國貨幣,目前,薩爾瓦多並沒有面臨薩爾瓦多人從根本上放棄法定貨幣轉向比特幣所需的危機級別的惡性通貨膨脹。
Furthermore, Salvadorans have spent decades under the thumb of central banking. The country’s central bank was established in 1934 and was at first a private entity until it was nationalized.
此外,薩爾瓦多人已經在中央銀行的控制下度過了數十年。該國中央銀行成立於 1934 年,最初是一個私人實體,直到被國有化。
Switching from a fiat currency like the dollar to Bitcoin is the equivalent of a blood transfusion for the entire society. Patience is a virtue in such a context.
從美元等法定貨幣轉向比特幣對整個社會來說相當於輸血。在這種情況下,耐心是一種美德。
Double Down On Bitcoin
加倍押注比特幣
El Salvador is still among the poorest in the Western Hemisphere. Foreign investors and creditors are not always happy with his policies.
薩爾瓦多仍然是西半球最貧窮的國家之一。外國投資者和債權人並不總是對他的政策感到滿意。
A quarter of the country remains impoverished, with remittances from abroad equating to 20% of GDP. Whether or not the IMF will grant El Salvador access to international markets to finance its debt in the wake of the Bitcoin law, and questions over his administration’s fiscal transparency, remains to be seen. Luckily, Bukele has already adopted the solution to these complaints.
該國四分之一的地區仍然貧困,來自國外的匯款相當於 GDP 的 20%。在比特幣法推出後,國際貨幣基金組織是否會允許薩爾瓦多進入國際市場為其債務融資,以及對其政府財政透明度的質疑,仍有待觀察。幸運的是,布克萊已經針對這些投訴採取了解決方案。
Van Eck, one of the world’s largest asset managers, conjectured that Bitcoin could reach $52 million dollars per coin. Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, foresees Bitcoin potentially reaching $49 million by 2045. They are not the only ones to make seven and eight figure Bitcoin price predictions.
全球最大的資產管理公司之一範艾克 (Van Eck) 推測,比特幣每枚硬幣的價值可能達到 5,200 萬美元。 MicroStrategy 執行長 Michael Saylor 預計,到 2045 年,比特幣的價格可能會達到 4,900 萬美元。
Does Bukele understand the implications for El Salvador if Bitcoin achieves even a fraction of such price gains?
如果比特幣的價格漲幅只是其中一小部分,布克萊是否理解對薩爾瓦多的影響?
Unless his blasé attitude towards Bitcoin adoption is a game of 4D chess, it appears that no, Bukele does not know what he has done.
除非他對比特幣採用的漠不關心的態度是一場 4D 象棋遊戲,否則布克萊似乎不知道自己做了什麼。
No other country has the awareness about Bitcoin as Salvadorans—it is the number one country for “Bitcoin” search volume on Google Trends.
沒有其他國家比薩爾瓦多人更了解比特幣——它是谷歌趨勢上「比特幣」搜尋量第一的國家。
Therefore, no other country is as prepared for de-dollarization and the future as El Salvador, except maybe Bhutan, which was revealed to hold more Bitcoin than El Salvador. The Buddhist nation in between China and India, however, has not implemented a legal tender law.
因此,沒有哪個國家像薩爾瓦多那樣為去美元化和未來做好了準備,也許除了不丹,據透露,不丹持有的比特幣比薩爾瓦多多。然而,位於中國和印度之間的佛教國家尚未實施法定貨幣法。
But, the extent of Bukele’s revolution doesn’t end there. In a fiat currency regime, central banks print ad nauseam and
但是,布克萊的革命程度並沒有就此結束。在法定貨幣制度下,央行印鈔票令人作嘔,
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