在预算之前，西塔拉曼的仪表板上闪现出一些积极的东西

Sitharaman 会让 roti、kapada、makaan 再次变得实惠吗？铁路预算可能上涨 20%，重点关注车站升级和现代化列车

Budget 2024: A few positives blink on Sitharaman's dashboard before budget

2024 年预算：预算前西塔拉曼的仪表板上闪现出一些积极因素

Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to present the last full budget of the Narendra Modi 2.0 government on February 1. While the common man's expectations are sky high, the government has a herculean task at hand to balance fiscal prudence with populist measures. A look at some key data points that will influence the budget.

联邦财政部长 Nirmala Sitharaman 将于 2 月 1 日提交纳伦德拉·莫迪 2.0 政府的最后一份完整预算。虽然普通人的期望很高，但政府面临着平衡财政审慎与民粹主义措施的艰巨任务。查看一些会影响预算的关键数据点。

Before budget, a few positives blink on Sitharaman's dashboard

在预算之前，西塔拉曼的仪表板上闪现出一些积极的东西

After two years of below-par growth, the Indian economy is finally set to clock a higher GDP number in the current fiscal. The Economic Times Now Network Survey of Economists pegs the GDP growth for FY24 at 6.3%. While the first advance estimates had put the number at 6.5%, economists expect the slowdown in the third quarter to drag down the full-year number. A higher GDP growth number will give the government more leeway to increase its spending on key sectors.

经过两年低于标准的增长后，印度经济最终将在本财年实现更高的 GDP 数据。 《经济时报》经济学家网络调查将 2024 财年 GDP 增长率定为 6.3%。虽然初步预测该数字为 6.5%，但经济学家预计第三季度经济放缓将拖累全年数字。较高的 GDP 增长率将使政府有更多余地增加关键部门的支出。

The other positive for the government is the lower inflation number. After remaining stubbornly high for most of 2022, CPI inflation finally cooled below the Reserve Bank of India's upper tolerance band of 6% in December. While food inflation continues to remain sticky, economists expect inflation to moderate further in the coming months, helped by a favourable base effect and the central bank's rate hikes. Lower inflation will help the government keep a lid on prices and reduce the pressure on household budgets.

对政府来说另一个积极的因素是较低的通货膨胀率。在 2022 年大部分时间里居高不下之后，CPI 通胀终于在 12 月降至印度储备银行 6% 的上限以下。虽然食品通胀继续保持高位，但经济学家预计，在有利的基数效应和央行加息的帮助下，未来几个月通胀将进一步放缓。较低的通货膨胀将有助于政府控制物价并减轻家庭预算的压力。

However, not everything is hunky-dory on the economic front. After two years of strong recovery, merchandise exports are finally set to contract in the current fiscal. The ET Now Network Survey of Economists pegs merchandise exports at $420 billion for FY24, down from $432 billion in the previous fiscal. While the government has been targeting a $500 billion merchandise export number for some time now, the global slowdown and weak external demand have made it difficult to achieve this goal.

然而，经济方面并非一切都一帆风顺。经过两年的强劲复苏，本财年商品出口最终将出现收缩。 ET Now 经济学家网络调查预计 2024 财年商品出口额为 4,200 亿美元，低于上一财年的 4,320 亿美元。尽管政府长期以来一直将商品出口目标定为5000亿美元，但全球经济放缓和外部需求疲软使得这一目标难以实现。

The other concern for the government is the widening trade deficit. After hitting a record high of $32 billion in July, the merchandise trade deficit has narrowed in recent months, helped by a decline in imports. However, the trade deficit for the full fiscal is still expected to be higher than the previous year's number. A wider trade deficit puts pressure on the rupee and can lead to capital outflows.

政府的另一个担忧是贸易逆差扩大。商品贸易逆差在 7 月份创下 320 亿美元的历史新高后，近几个月在进口下降的帮助下有所收窄。不过，预计整个财年的贸易逆差仍将高于上年的数字。贸易逆差扩大会给卢比带来压力，并可能导致资本外流。

Overall, the Indian economy is expected to grow at a slower pace in FY24, with inflation moderating and merchandise exports contracting. While a few positives blink on the dashboard before the budget, the government has a tough task at hand to balance fiscal prudence with populist measures.

总体而言，预计 2024 财年印度经济增长速度将放缓，通胀放缓，商品出口收缩。尽管预算案公布前出现了一些积极因素，但政府面临着平衡财政审慎与民粹主义措施的艰巨任务。