2025预算：高压下强迫通过

国民议会即将经历一个令人振奋的一周。 2月3日，星期一，弗朗索瓦·贝鲁（FrançoisBayrou）将触发第49.3条采取国家预算，紧随其后的是社会保障的预算。

François Bayrou seems hell-bent on hastening his own political shipwreck. Barely appointed and he's already unveiling the heavy artillery: a rapid-fire 49.3 to impose a 2025 budget that is already drawing flak from all sides. Amidst an insurgency by the oppositions, scathing criticisms, and a yawning deficit, the Prime Minister is stubbornly pushing his project through at any cost. What if this obstinacy is a sign of his political demise?

弗朗索瓦·贝鲁（FrançoisBayrou）似乎对加快自己的政治沉船工作感到沮丧。几乎没有任命，他已经揭开了重型大炮：快速射击的49.3，以施加2025年的预算，该预算已经从各个方面吸引了flak。在反对派，严厉的批评和打哈欠的赤字的叛乱中，总理顽固地不惜一切代价推动自己的项目。如果这种固执是他政治灭亡的迹象怎么办？

2025 Budget: a forced passage under high tension

2025预算：高压下强迫通过

The National Assembly is set for an electrifying week. This Monday, February 3, François Bayrou will trigger Article 49.3 to adopt the state budget, closely followed by that of social security. A maneuver that is sure to provoke a general outcry in a France that is already reeling from a record spike in the unemployment rate.

国民议会定于一个激动人心的一周。 2月3日，星期一，弗朗索瓦·贝鲁（FrançoisBayrou）将触发第49.3条采取国家预算，紧随其后的是社会保障的预算。一个肯定会在法国中引起普遍的强烈抗议的动作，该抗议已经从失业率上的记录上升出来。

La France Insoumise has already tabled a motion of no confidence, with the ecologists and communists rallying to it, while the socialists still seem to be wavering.

法国la Insoumise已经提出了一项不信心的动议，生态学家和共产党集会了，而社会主义者似乎仍然在动摇。

The National Rally, on the other hand, is playing the suspense card. "He must pack his bags!" quips Tony Leprêtre on X.

另一方面，国家集会正在播放悬疑卡。 “他必须收拾行李！” X。

But what is most worrying are the figures. Initially estimated at a deficit of 16 billion euros, the social security budget could end up plunging to 23 billion, or even 30 in case of failure.

但是最令人担忧的是数字。最初估计的赤字为160亿欧元，社会保障预算最终可能会跌至230亿，甚至30个失败的情况下。

In an attempt to save face, the government is proposing:

为了节省面部，政府提出了：

This is enough to give those who fear an increase in the tax burden a cold sweat.

这足以让那些害怕增加税收负担的​​人流汗。

Jean-Louis thus quotes Nicolas Beytout:

让·路易斯（Jean-Louis）引用了尼古拉斯·贝特（Nicolas Beytout）：

"It's a very bad budget. Everyone who has looked into it says so!"

“这是一个非常糟糕的预算。每个调查的人都这么说！”

Bayrou facing an opposition lying in wait

贝鲁（Bayrou）面对一个在等待中的反对派

If Bayrou thought he was embarking on an easy billiards game, he risks finding himself facing an enraged opposition. On the right, Laurent Wauquiez is blowing hot and cold. He claims to be "firmly opposed to tax increases" and is still waiting for a gesture from the government on security and immigration.

如果贝鲁（Bayrou）认为自己正在进行轻松的台球比赛，那么他冒着发现自己面临激烈反对的风险。右边是劳伦特·沃奎兹（Laurent Wauquiez）吹冷热。他声称“坚决反对增加税收”，并且仍在等待政府对安全和移民的手势。

Among the Republicans, support is determined "text by text," leaving Bayrou to navigate blindly.

在共和党人中，支持被确定为“文本文本”，使Bayrou盲目导航。

The RN, for its part, senses the smell of blood and is already preparing its offensive. Jean-Philippe Tanguy claims that the budget is "worse than having no budget at all" and advocates for a motion of no confidence. Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella will have the final say, but the party is already anticipating an inevitable dissolution. An eventuality that would serve their interests well.

就RN而言，它感觉到了血液的气味，并且已经准备好攻势了。 Jean-Philippe Tanguy声称预算“比完全没有预算还要糟糕”，并提倡不信任的动议。海军陆战队和乔丹·巴德拉（Jordan Bardella）将有最终决定权，但该党已经预计不可避免的解散。最终将对他们的利益有利的最终性。

On the left, the confusion is just as palpable. LFI describes it as a "right-wing budget," which makes William Thay smile:

在左侧，混乱也很明显。 LFI将其描述为“右翼预算”，这使William Thay微笑：

"What would a left-wing budget even be when France already taxes half of its national wealth?"

“当法国已经征税一半的国内财富时，左翼预算将是多少？”

A statement that speaks volumes about the quagmire into which Bayrou has sunk.

一句话，说明了贝鲁（Bayrou）沉没的泥潭。

The French economy at an impasse?

法国经济处于僵局？

By banking on a rapid adoption of the 20205 budget, Bayrou hopes to avoid stagnation. But the gamble is a risky one. In addition to a staggering deficit, the French economy is struggling to regain its momentum. Europe is watching from a distance as the national budget situation edges closer to an electric shock.

通过迅速采用20205预算，Bayrou希望避免停滞。但是赌博是一场冒险的。除了惊人的赤字外，法国经济还努力恢复其势头。随着国家预算状况越来越接近电击，欧洲正在从远处观看。

If the government's aim was to reassure, it has failed. The new day of solidarity, intended to finance aid for senior citizens, is raising eyebrows even within the majority ranks. Working seven more hours per year without remuneration? An idea that even Bayrou himself eventually dismissed. But will that be enough to quell tensions?

如果政府的目标是放心，那就失败了。旨在为老年人提供援助的新的团结日，即使在多数席位范围内也在引起人们的注意。每年再工作七个小时而没有报酬？即使是Bayrou本人最终解雇的想法。但这足以平息紧张局势吗？

As the government tries to keep up a good appearance, distrust is mounting. Between rising taxes, precarious public finances, and a toxic political climate, Bayrou is treading on hot coals. The opposition is waiting for one thing only: to see him stumble.

当政府试图保持良好的外表时，不信任正在越来越多。在税收上升，不稳定的公共财政和有毒的政治气氛之间，贝鲁（Bayrou）踩在热煤上。反对派只是在等待一件事：看到他跌跌撞撞。

It comes as no surprise that Bayrou is encountering a wall. His forced passage with the 49.3, coupled with widespread dissent, puts him in a weak position. Wasn't his appointment last December already a sign of the collapse of the Republic?

贝鲁（Bayrou）遇到一堵墙也就不足为奇了。他与49.3的强迫通道与普遍的异议相结合，使他处于弱势位置。他去年12月的任命不是已经成为共和国崩溃的迹象吗？

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区块链和加密革命正在进行中！而且，它对世界上最脆弱的经济产生影响的那一天，我会说我在其中发挥了一小部分作用