2025預算：高壓下強迫通過

國民議會即將經歷一個令人振奮的一周。 2月3日，星期一，弗朗索瓦·貝魯（FrançoisBayrou）將觸發第49.3條採取國家預算，緊隨其後的是社會保障的預算。

François Bayrou seems hell-bent on hastening his own political shipwreck. Barely appointed and he's already unveiling the heavy artillery: a rapid-fire 49.3 to impose a 2025 budget that is already drawing flak from all sides. Amidst an insurgency by the oppositions, scathing criticisms, and a yawning deficit, the Prime Minister is stubbornly pushing his project through at any cost. What if this obstinacy is a sign of his political demise?

弗朗索瓦·貝魯（FrançoisBayrou）似乎對加快自己的政治沉船工作感到沮喪。幾乎沒有任命，他已經揭開了重型大砲：快速射擊的49.3，以施加2025年的預算，該預算已經從各個方面吸引了flak。在反對派，嚴厲的批評和打哈欠的赤字的叛亂中，總理頑固地不惜一切代價推動自己的項目。如果這種固執是他政治滅亡的跡象怎麼辦？

2025 Budget: a forced passage under high tension

2025預算：高壓下強迫通過

The National Assembly is set for an electrifying week. This Monday, February 3, François Bayrou will trigger Article 49.3 to adopt the state budget, closely followed by that of social security. A maneuver that is sure to provoke a general outcry in a France that is already reeling from a record spike in the unemployment rate.

國民議會定於一個激動人心的一周。 2月3日，星期一，弗朗索瓦·貝魯（FrançoisBayrou）將觸發第49.3條採取國家預算，緊隨其後的是社會保障的預算。一個肯定會在法國中引起普遍的強烈抗議的動作，該抗議已經從失業率上的記錄上升出來。

La France Insoumise has already tabled a motion of no confidence, with the ecologists and communists rallying to it, while the socialists still seem to be wavering.

法國la Insoumise已經提出了一項不信心的動議，生態學家和共產黨集會了，而社會主義者似乎仍然在動搖。

The National Rally, on the other hand, is playing the suspense card. "He must pack his bags!" quips Tony Leprêtre on X.

另一方面，國家集會正在播放懸疑卡。 “他必須收拾行李！” X。

But what is most worrying are the figures. Initially estimated at a deficit of 16 billion euros, the social security budget could end up plunging to 23 billion, or even 30 in case of failure.

但是最令人擔憂的是數字。最初估計的赤字為160億歐元，社會保障預算最終可能會跌至230億，甚至30個失敗的情況下。

In an attempt to save face, the government is proposing:

為了節省面部，政府提出了：

This is enough to give those who fear an increase in the tax burden a cold sweat.

這足以讓那些害怕增加稅收負擔的​​人流汗。

Jean-Louis thus quotes Nicolas Beytout:

讓·路易斯（Jean-Louis）引用了尼古拉斯·貝特（Nicolas Beytout）：

"It's a very bad budget. Everyone who has looked into it says so!"

“這是一個非常糟糕的預算。每個調查的人都這麼說！”

Bayrou facing an opposition lying in wait

貝魯（Bayrou）面對一個在等待中的反對派

If Bayrou thought he was embarking on an easy billiards game, he risks finding himself facing an enraged opposition. On the right, Laurent Wauquiez is blowing hot and cold. He claims to be "firmly opposed to tax increases" and is still waiting for a gesture from the government on security and immigration.

如果貝魯（Bayrou）認為自己正在進行輕鬆的台球比賽，那麼他冒著發現自己面臨激烈反對的風險。右邊是勞倫特·沃奎茲（Laurent Wauquiez）吹冷熱。他聲稱“堅決反對增加稅收”，並且仍在等待政府對安全和移民的手勢。

Among the Republicans, support is determined "text by text," leaving Bayrou to navigate blindly.

在共和黨人中，支持被確定為“文本文本”，使Bayrou盲目導航。

The RN, for its part, senses the smell of blood and is already preparing its offensive. Jean-Philippe Tanguy claims that the budget is "worse than having no budget at all" and advocates for a motion of no confidence. Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella will have the final say, but the party is already anticipating an inevitable dissolution. An eventuality that would serve their interests well.

就RN而言，它感覺到了血液的氣味，並且已經準備好攻勢了。 Jean-Philippe Tanguy聲稱預算“比完全沒有預算還要糟糕”，並提倡不信任的動議。海軍陸戰隊和喬丹·巴德拉（Jordan Bardella）將有最終決定權，但該黨已經預計不可避免的解散。最終將對他們的利益有利的最終性。

On the left, the confusion is just as palpable. LFI describes it as a "right-wing budget," which makes William Thay smile:

在左側，混亂也很明顯。 LFI將其描述為“右翼預算”，這使William Thay微笑：

"What would a left-wing budget even be when France already taxes half of its national wealth?"

“當法國已經徵稅一半的國內財富時，左翼預算將是多少？”

A statement that speaks volumes about the quagmire into which Bayrou has sunk.

一句話，說明了貝魯（Bayrou）沉沒的泥潭。

The French economy at an impasse?

法國經濟處於僵局？

By banking on a rapid adoption of the 20205 budget, Bayrou hopes to avoid stagnation. But the gamble is a risky one. In addition to a staggering deficit, the French economy is struggling to regain its momentum. Europe is watching from a distance as the national budget situation edges closer to an electric shock.

通過迅速採用20205預算，Bayrou希望避免停滯。但是賭博是一場冒險的。除了驚人的赤字外，法國經濟還努力恢復其勢頭。隨著國家預算狀況越來越接近電擊，歐洲正在從遠處觀看。

If the government's aim was to reassure, it has failed. The new day of solidarity, intended to finance aid for senior citizens, is raising eyebrows even within the majority ranks. Working seven more hours per year without remuneration? An idea that even Bayrou himself eventually dismissed. But will that be enough to quell tensions?

如果政府的目標是放心，那就失敗了。旨在為老年人提供援助的新的團結日，即使在多數席位範圍內也在引起人們的注意。每年再工作七個小時而沒有報酬？即使是Bayrou本人最終解僱的想法。但這足以平息緊張局勢嗎？

As the government tries to keep up a good appearance, distrust is mounting. Between rising taxes, precarious public finances, and a toxic political climate, Bayrou is treading on hot coals. The opposition is waiting for one thing only: to see him stumble.

當政府試圖保持良好的外表時，不信任正在越來越多。在稅收上升，不穩定的公共財政和有毒的政治氣氛之間，貝魯（Bayrou）踩在熱煤上。反對派只是在等待一件事：看到他跌跌撞撞。

It comes as no surprise that Bayrou is encountering a wall. His forced passage with the 49.3, coupled with widespread dissent, puts him in a weak position. Wasn't his appointment last December already a sign of the collapse of the Republic?

貝魯（Bayrou）遇到一堵牆也就不足為奇了。他與49.3的強迫通道與普遍的異議相結合，使他處於弱勢位置。他去年12月的任命不是已經成為共和國崩潰的跡象嗎？

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區塊鍊和加密革命正在進行中！而且，它對世界上最脆弱的經濟產生影響的那一天，我會說我在其中發揮了一小部分作用